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; @' o2 D! _* ]' W5 i3 H! Q1 i很好的文章,转发给大家看。
[欧赔最优解]- c. n8 {' K/ u* _( `
) U5 u5 `8 @$ O w大部分盘口根据即时对比因素的不同,庄家根据自身体系出发,结合欧洲形势,可以得出一个最适合受注的赔率组合,这个组合基本上是庄家“最优”的选择。这是本轮讨论的问题。: m5 z; Q" s. C" v. L7 A" O
有些比赛,经过考量,是无法得出一个最优解的,无论怎样做盘,利润都不大,甚至略亏损,这时的做盘原则就是“两害相衡取其轻”,选择一个相对能减少风险的组合受注。这是下轮讨论的要点。. m( V$ r+ b3 s. M. p
结合举例说明“最优解”思路的具体运用。 y. n Y# G3 O3 V
G5 @* A5 s2 r
[1]8 g* W) R' K/ }+ Q( Q7 P* F
英超第21轮,[6]阿森纳0:0[2]曼联。. |9 k+ N9 f: e/ g. }
威廉:2.5/3.1/2.5。9 U2 c& U0 g, h! F, X* O4 d
立博:2.25/3.2/2.75。
2 d6 C }" Z7 c! }; D& \' i这样的强强对话,如果分胜负的话,欧赔的最优解中,平赔需要得到合适的运用,就是充分使用平赔的分散作用(适合于绝大多数强强对话),现盘两大庄,都没有主动运用平赔思维和手法,主动放弃最优解,已经包含不分胜负的看法。3 Z7 d% X5 k' N0 w
结合对比形势,具体对比你自备的资料中有。
% \2 m. F# B8 `1 u+ s主胜的开法:9 R& N/ x- u/ _. g
威廉:2.5/2.9/2.62。% j! |" T8 B! M; Q
你看胜赔一样,都是2.5,与2.5/3.1/2.5,有什么区别?. \; m: Y2 R" M4 V8 X+ E
2.9对于2.5的分散与3.1对于2.5的分散效果是不同的,前者对于胜赔的分散效果更大,这是以后经常讨论到的“微小”差异,欧赔的很多关键点就在这“微小”差异上,对微小要点的理解累积达到质变后就是欧赔层次的上升。- L7 L0 A( S: X
主负:9 [9 j: p* h3 V: `. [, }/ x# T
威廉:2.37/3/2.7。类似赛事:皇马0:3巴萨。思路是营造平胜格局,适当阻碍负赔。 y- C" A3 }* L$ u* H
去年,阿森纳2:4曼联,威廉是:2.2/3/3,左倾幅度更大,是为了更有效营造平胜格局,同时形成负赔的相应阻力,当然这个位置是有阻力但是也不能使得赔付增加太多。
0 ], n' @- D1 o- |# }; N( `: Q: t平局:
% x' a2 F- ?+ ^( c现盘的思路是,威廉:平赔中庸(不清晰明确表达看好平局的观点、但是赔付也不至于庄家难以承受的位置),胜负均衡双向分散。立博:平赔营造小梯度3.2,但是配合拉低了胜赔,就是增大了胜赔的分散力,同时也没有损失负赔的多少分散力,综合起来足够分散3.2的平赔。8 \9 b' e [: C) b) d4 i t
% q1 k# i+ h* a* z
[2]西甲第18轮,[4]维拉0:0[5]皇马. Z8 X7 u! v% `
威廉:2.3/3.2/2.6。立博:2.5/3.2/2.5。
! M6 ~, p5 s; g( g: x维拉由于参加欧冠进入16强增加了广义实力,皇马近况麻麻增加了失利可能,是经典平中庸胜负标准双分的思路。9 c$ W6 ^+ E- y" {) u) q
思维与上场一样。
% j% v5 x0 `6 }; c( l; h% W/ Y4 U$ ]9 J: S2 n& `
[3]
; I/ w! x: b9 d2 G7 f西甲第17轮,[3]皇马1:2[14]桑坦德。
. b+ p( C% f4 g. H# C6 O威廉:1.28/4.5/8。( ~ p% U0 t$ c
立博:1.33/4/8,变1.3/4/9。
& u4 H- Z! ]4 ?$ l' D7 \主队近况不佳,客队132可以。' Y; T/ l- S* |
广义实力对比是:人气强队VS中下游球队。% l% n' u! V y6 A0 v& @
主胜最优解:1.22/5/9.5,至多开到1.25/4.5/10。7 X; ?1 L- b3 L( C9 ^; w) t
现在两家都将胜赔抬高,幅度不小,显然放弃了主胜的选择,则断定主队不胜,至于如何判断是负,有些概念需要逐渐讲解后再分析。. p1 D) f2 ~& f: S5 m: v
主胜的话,如果胜赔一定要开1.28,那么只能采用超低平来配合,才能有效分散“1.28这么高”的胜赔,例如:1.28/4/10,甚至小庄可以开出的1.28/3.95/10.5这样的组合。, l: t, t; W6 ^5 J: E. S' x6 F
/ k/ Y* ^' y) c- W. x* s那么,如何才知道,何种组合才是一场对阵的最优解?
, k3 C1 W1 `' M9 a结合我发给的赔率统计表,可以感性认识一下。
, z$ b4 O2 u6 @2 [) _同时需要一定比赛科学的有步骤的分析的积累,这是真正有价值的积累。' e: n: L3 Q2 \2 l& }
以后的“赔率框架位置”专讲,会起到定位作用。0 r' |4 {! S" f! z
; `' J8 ?! c* o
很多时候,寻找判断最优解,不一定要分析出具体位置,分析出相应的营造最优解的思路即可得到很大帮助。! I7 j% a' h' A) z: l/ \4 K
/ d5 [% h, I5 r( Y6 c, o0 [% V6 k/ |/ Z
例如:
5 A- Z0 {% J5 z; Z. F' B! Y西甲第17轮,[20]贝迪斯3:0[19]阿拉维斯
3 Z/ A' k% T5 n0 o% I6 \' Q7 S双方战绩均劣,此时威廉1.8/3.25/3.8,分析开平局的思路,显然不能将平赔开这么高,因为无论如何做盘,3.25的平赔都是非常难分散的,连更优解也很难营造。
' g" l7 F5 [4 c& q2 h5 [所以,首先判断分胜负,结合基本实力,简单分析就是主胜。! p/ J8 ~' \5 j' a
1 k6 H( b: Z/ G5 o* c! _# K4 O
欧赔有很多此类很有效的分析思路,当然不是开高就不出开低就出的简单理解。. [8 w }- C5 I7 |( b, \
当类似思路多了,精准判定一场比赛则是现实可及的,无论场面多么热闹。 |
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