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[虚拟币交流]
比特币暴涨只等现货ETF通过？彭博：三大利好正在发酵（转载）
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比特币ETF何时能够获得批准的时程备受市场关注，根据彭博社的统计，美国证券交易- D3 q' W8 P& a
委员会(SEC)需要在9月1日之前针对Bitwise比特币ETP信托基金做出决定，但是SEC同样可以先选择延迟，而来自, g' O: }: t" p( B' S+ Y a: x
BlackRock、VanEck、WisdomTree和Invesco的申请决定也在一天之后展开。
0 {4 E2 b1 S- _7 L通常来说，当比特币现货ETF在《联邦公报》上发布后便会进入公开评论期，SEC通常会在45天内作出初步决定，
9 J' f. u, R1 G( [批准或拒绝该申请，届时若未做出裁决则再延45天，第二次仍未有结果则再延90天，最久必须在公开评论期开始- P( U3 V0 ?5 y) _* B
后240天做出裁决。- N3 Y0 v$ W% Q' I2 [
分析师：预料之内会被推迟& u6 D. Q& D- C
彭博ETF分析师James Seyffart，曾经预测灰度GBTC转现货ETF的判决最早可能在8月15日出炉，如今这个预测也& @, L0 j* i7 L
变为「理论上的日期」，目前并没有传出任何更新，他表示「这些决定都会被延迟是预料之内」，而据灰度官方1 u+ }. v! {. l6 b! G8 R$ D$ C
在7月底的发文，他们则是预测法院可能在今年秋季作出判决。专注于数字资产的机构平台FRNT Financial的执行. D; N/ L' H* E' J0 Y* f8 ]
长Stephane Ouellette则在彭博社采访时表示：ETF申请的基本情况是，管理机构将继续使用多年来的所有权力
6 n4 ^! \& q( n' w' V来推迟决定，即使这些产品最终获得批准，在第一次获得批准的情况下，看到它们获得批准还是会非常令人惊6 R( _; i" m2 M0 Z4 `1 A
讶。
) {" x& ?( x, n事实上，女股神Cathie Wood早在8月上旬就发表看法，认为SEC通过现货ETF是迟早的事，且为了帮助平衡竞争
- @( Q& s5 F' t* \1 ?环境，届时可能会一次同时批准多家公司的申请;而最关键的时间点，她预期会是落在灰度赢得与SEC的诉讼，成
/ r; I2 F7 V$ ^8 q5 j! ~功将GBTC向比特币现货ETF转型之后。! C* O8 |7 R8 u5 r, ]; r
三大利好消息酝酿
$ I3 Q+ K$ [& P% j4 |市场普遍认为SEC可能对比特币ETF的立场有所软化的潜在积极信号主要有三个：/ G$ b) c' `4 j( V
GBTC负溢价率缩窄% M% h( ?& X: O/ @/ _) C
最受市场瞩目的GBTC转比特币现货ETF的预测其实可以从GBTC的负溢价率来看，GBTC自从2021年2月以后就持
2 `$ y: V1 h/ B续呈现「负溢价」，并在去年底比特币大跌的时候一度逼近-50%。不过随着市场回温以及GBTC转型成现货ETF可* `: z8 M+ i* A
能性的上升，负溢价正持续减少中。据Ychart数据，截至上周五(18日)GBTC的负溢价已来到约-25%。
/ E H9 i9 ^/ u杠杆型比特币期货ETF已上线
6 `, n- ?( S$ H- r% k; d# @值得一提的是，ETF发行商Volatility Shares早在6月27日上线杠杆型比特币ETF，其中「2倍杠杆」意味着用户只; j0 m) Z7 T/ `
要投入比特币价值的一半就可以放大成一枚的比特币，自亮相以来，以吸引超过2000万美元的资金投入。7 c* @, w+ M m) U( M7 N5 I, R7 g
多档以太坊期货ETF提交申请
& H9 V# i9 t3 U: K# Z4 l0 f不只是比特币的相关金融产品展开新的进度，Volatility Shares也在7月28日向SEC提交以太坊期货ETF申请，随后2 {! s4 n) K% n2 ~, J
多家美国基金管理公司也纷纷提出以太坊期货ETF申请，迄今有高达16档以太坊期货ETF正等待SEC的审查，虽然4 [: e5 F& g3 f
知情人士强调，以太坊期货ETF是否能推出，尚未得到保证，但也被认为是一大利好消息。$ B% h3 v6 g- ^$ s3 i v
2 O1 Z& S# ~6 G |
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