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[虚拟币交流]
比特币：为什么55355美元的支持是10月份BTC的关键（转）
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BTC在24小时内下跌了3.64%。
$ U. g* {/ a) J) B5 ~2 U- {一位分析师预测，如果55355美元的支撑位未能守住，金价将进一步下跌。6 n1 B. m# r/ n% \
逆势而行，比特币[BTC]看到了一个绿色的九月。然而，在过去的两天里，它经历了急剧下降。截至本文撰写时，比特币的交易价格为61407美元。这标志着周线图下降了4.31%。
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在此之前，BTC在月度图表上呈上升趋势，上涨了5.99%。然而，自触及66508美元的高点以来，它已跌至60164美元的低点。
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. y% \; t W( M; Y' J( B3 ^最近的价格变动在加密货币社区引发了广泛的讨论。因此，受欢迎的加密货币分析师比特币的男人根据艾略特B波的ABC结构，暗示了潜在的下跌。' l4 ]' P, @' m+ ]/ y7 l- E, z
1 B, b, u* e6 F, D% P分析显示了什么% C! D7 Z3 f$ }3 |, t) X
分析师认为，BTC已经打破了微观支撑，这可能会导致进一步下跌。, g* g% A3 a$ i
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根据这一分析，市场看跌，这将导致两种情况。! @2 m3 t2 B0 R: A9 I; [* c" Y
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第一种情况是，BTC将形成ABC修正，Wave-A已经开始，价格正在下跌。这里的关键是，Wave-B将无法将价格推高到之前的高点之上。因此，在这种情况下，BTC将保持在55355美元以上的支撑位。
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# N% T/ ^* y2 X4 r2 w! T然而，在第二种情况下，比特币将跌破55355美元的支撑位，从而进入下行的五波结构，表明跌幅要大得多。
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: h, E/ t6 S2 K; kManofBitcoin提供的分析表明，在最近的价格走势之后，可能会出现下跌。然而，至关重要的是要确定其他基本面因素的建议。
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首先，比特币的价格DAA差异在过去一周一直保持负值。这表明，由于链上活动减少，当前BTC价格的上涨没有得到基本面的支持。- }2 y4 y- x$ q6 C0 |, g
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这种市场状况意味着价格增长是不可持续的，因为它表明缺乏信心和兴趣减弱。
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- ^. }5 s8 [; ^此外，MVRV的长/短差在过去一周从4.5%的高点下降到3.7%。这种下跌表明，市场正处于一个阶段，长期持有者不再愿意持有那么多，短期持有者可能会抛售以避免损失。7 j$ y% ]8 g, r0 v
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最后，自9月25日以来，比特币大持有者的净流量已降至负值。这表明，大股东在关闭现有头寸时并没有开立新头寸。$ c8 Y7 t% y0 k8 ?
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减少大股东的资金流动表明市场情绪消极，因为高流出表明获利回吐或避免进一步亏损。: O- ^# d& w1 i# B b
8 a4 ~+ c4 S/ ]3 C, s简单地说，比特币正在经历一种负面的市场情绪，空头试图接管市场。因此，如果这些条件成立，BTC将跌至59899美元。然而，逆转将使比特币恢复62675美元的水平。
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