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[虚拟币交流]
Polymarket数据显示特朗普在总统竞选中领先贺锦丽近10个百分点(转)
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前总统唐纳德·特朗普目前在2024年总统竞选中领先副总统贺锦丽10个百分点,数据来自Polymarket预测平台。
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这标志着与9月早期的投注赔率相比出现了显著变化,当时哈里斯占据了优势。 & y0 K$ B! F, d# @+ Y) C
最新的Polymarket数据显示,特朗普赢得11月总统大选的几率为55%,而哈里斯的几率为45%。 , b4 i0 S8 A% k; w& I) v; X
特朗普在关键摇摆州领先这一逆转也延续到了关键摇摆州,特朗普目前在亚利桑那州、乔治亚州、密歇根州和宾夕法尼亚州领先。 # l; |7 a% _& h" z) U- C6 N6 m K
特别是亚利桑那州和乔治亚州显示出特朗普的领先优势最为明显,代表着共和党候选人的重要战场。 9 T2 n& o6 m2 U. ~0 e3 U3 \
( w v) k+ u) w0 c" R, X! Y; d特朗普在民调中的上升,伴随着对即将到来的选举的持续猜测。 ; s, S% }2 C; M
尽管他的势头不断增长,金融分析师吉姆·克莱默却提出了不同的看法,预测贺锦丽将赢得2024年大选。 8 L( o {) G( E4 Q
“我看不出唐纳德·特朗普怎么会赢,”克莱默在10月11日的一次广播中表示。
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他的评论在社交媒体上引发了讨论,尤其是在加密货币交易者中,常有人提到“逆克莱默效应”——一种认为克莱默预测的反面往往会发生的信念。
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特朗普在Polymarket上的人气上升与他对加密货币行业的公开支持同时发生。 ( u, ?" J) q7 o3 _
9月,特朗普在纽约的一次竞选活动中使用比特币购买汉堡,引起了媒体关注,这似乎是为了吸引加密货币选民的举动。
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他的竞选团队最近还推出了World Liberty Financial,一个去中心化金融(DeFi)项目,并拥有自己的原生代币。
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对于特朗普拥抱加密货币的反应不一。
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记者尼克·卡特警告说,该项目可能对特朗普的竞选构成风险,认为其DeFi结构可能会成为黑客的目标。 6 O$ e1 |( A) }) f+ T ]% N/ m
然而,其他专家如10T Holdings创始人丹·塔皮耶罗则淡化了选举对加密货币价格的影响。
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塔皮耶罗最近预测,无论谁赢得2024年大选,比特币都有可能涨至10万美元。
! |% A9 F! M7 m5 r超过87%的Polymarket加密钱包未获得盈利在去中心化预测市场Polymarket上,大多数用户未能获得任何利润。 2 p8 E+ e5 z8 S! H
据报道,在该平台上活跃的171,113个加密钱包中,有149,383个(占87.3%)未记录任何盈利。只有12.7%的钱包,即21,730个,实现了正收益。 ' J' V5 w0 O% K/ z& G
在盈利的钱包中,大多数的收益仍然较为温和。
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大约有2,138个钱包的收益超过1,000美元,而大多数钱包的盈利不足100美元。
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另有约7,400个钱包的利润介于100至1,000美元之间,这表明在该平台上获得可观回报的情况相对罕见。 5 c& r6 ~# G( w; o. K- g
与此同时,领先的金融数据和新闻服务提供商彭博社(Bloomberg LP)计划将加密博彩平台Polymarket的选举赔率数据纳入其广泛使用的终端系统。 7 E1 q0 ~' a+ e: b
Polymarket是一个基于区块链的预测市场,运行在Polygon网络上,已经成为追踪实时选举赔率的重要平台。 5 B' }8 Q/ S) k+ h* Q c" z
1 L: s, V1 p! E3 w' n, y L- L该平台允许用户对各种事件结果进行投注,利用透明的链上数据和智能合约来执行交易并支付收益。 |
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