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[虚拟币交流]
比特币可能在未来两天内开始反弹至15万美元：分析（转）
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分析师Ali Martinez认为，比特币可能会在未来两天内开始反弹至15万美元，然后出现大幅回调。
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% q1 i6 @) g. m2 V" f* x5 ?比特币与前几周的剧烈波动不同，过去几天一直处于持有模式，没有出现重大价格变动。
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自11月13日比特币达到93500美元的峰值以来，它一直在努力走高。虽然它经历了温和的调整，跌至86682美元，但此后反弹至92600美元。" `5 I; m/ ^( Z. Y# A6 y
, y# O2 N6 A0 g, U4 f8 b3 l在过去的六天里，比特币在8.9万美元至9.1万美元之间波动，价格没有重大变化。在这个被动市场中，参与者既谨慎又兴奋，预计会出现大幅下跌或大幅上涨。
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与此同时，像Ali Martinez这样的分析师正在研究历史趋势，以预测比特币的下一个可能走势。4 t) p. v1 `& x4 @* E; ~1 F
; i3 I7 }& L0 I9 `# v4 O历史表明，比特币在大幅调整前可能达到13.8万美元
5 i# V% S4 \7 d$ l在A更新今天早些时候，Martinez指出，在2016/2017牛市期间，比特币价格飙升了156%，超过了首次大幅调整前的历史最高点，首次大幅调整使其价值蒸发了39% ；5 }& H: L* p8 n8 T
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同样，他指出，在2020/2021年的周期中，比特币的价值增长了121%，然后经历了32%的回调，抹去了其中的一些涨幅。基于这些观察，他认为比特币在面临首次大幅回调之前可能会达到至少13.8万美元 ；. v1 Z2 {: @) ]- k9 ]) ^6 w* s+ u
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比特币牛市可能在两天内爆发，目标价为15万美元; a' r M2 l* o S" d( ` v; Q$ q( P
与此同时，在后续帖子中，马丁内斯强调比特币正在密切镜像前两个牛市周期的模式。) ?/ K; W* q {; O
8 f& b& Y1 d2 G4 ]2 n, d6 N) |$ g他之前曾指出，在比特币上个季度夺回19700美元的峰值后，它飙升了26%，然后巩固了一周。整合之后，价格大幅上涨至40000美元。" q9 {1 R- ~( d* J' D
) f- k Y5 i( H5 i" B' p/ g" c$ m值得注意的是，在目前的情况下，比特币已经比3月份的峰值73750美元飙升了26.7%，并且自达到93500美元的新峰值以来，在过去的六天里一直在巩固。$ u8 W3 N2 X; c7 g, P) [- q
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因此，马丁内斯相信如果历史可以作为参考的话，市场可能会在未来一两天内再次突破，目标价约为15万美元。, Z n: u; v& A4 `; i
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牛市后调整期间的潜在价格目标+ [ M5 H2 |+ @% G
值得注意的是，15万美元的目标与比特币的历史趋势相一致，在经历约30%的大幅调整之前，比特币在超过以往的历史高点后通常会上涨100%或更多 ；0 ]' U: p. l8 g1 H- V4 ~. ?+ Z
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如果这种情况发生，如果比特币首次声称15万美元目标如果峰值接近13.8万美元，则达到9.6万美元。) j* X' B) V, ?$ V1 I# ]: W
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与此同时，Martinez强调了8.3万至8.5万美元和7.2万至7.5万美元的价格区间，作为市场从看涨转为看跌的潜在支撑区域。
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