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[lastpost] => 2649423 虚拟币转错了地址了那基本就没啦 1715597641 rainwang
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首先回顾下本周发生的事情：熊：美国ZF开始将其查获的暗网电商丝绸之路的
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总计30174枚比特币转向了交易所，相关人士认为这是抛售的前兆，因此带来了恐慌，! a' H7 ^7 F/ h$ y$ M2 M
- N" o3 ?4 E0 g! I# y% }方舟基金，灰度基金都抛售了比特币。这导致币比特币一度跌到64500附近。
& U- u. Y1 S1 I6 u/ X; v2 d& A0 Y. g# x* O
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$ w o% |% L* o' X7 R 牛：（1）Fidelity，Blackrock都在持续增持比特币，其中blackroak增持3100枚，
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- s5 i4 @, O6 C1 NFidelity增持1100枚（2）神秘地址以100枚为单位疯狂购入比特币，越跌越买，四天
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内抄底2170枚。个人猜测可能是某国ZF在买入，如果未来的有一天，某个国家ZF5 @5 M7 X+ m" ~. p
% j* S. c+ V1 p9 x宣布其持续买入比特币，可能就是准备抛售，见大顶的时候（3）usdt4天内增发30亿9 x7 S" r5 G3 O z& {
# ?9 P9 e2 N$ M, ~" `( _
枚，在过去的日子，以周为单位，USDT增发都会带来币价大涨聊完了新闻，我们回到+ `, c1 P* l' C/ u! c
6 s8 j$ ?' r, P3 u' A/ _% @$ Ok线。首先看比特币：从日线上看，比特币在两个红色矩形之间（60000，72000）形成
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震荡，振幅逐步收窄，很快就要选择出方向。考虑HSEMA9逐步逼近蓝色EMA18，死
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% e K. S6 I( n+ J, ?) z叉一旦形成，上涨趋势会被破环，比特币将测试下方红色矩形6万的位置。因此，为了/ m7 o! T% ?; C9 w/ J* ]
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避免死叉的形成，比特币需要快速反弹。反弹只有突破绿色区间71300的位置才可以确+ H: O7 U$ K" ^3 c( O$ v
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定一个更高的高点，从而走出下降趋势。如果无法站稳71300，再次测试60000只是时1 t2 T8 M9 t T) @9 J
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间问题。如果6万不保，下方HS矩形是大支撑，也就是53000~50000的区间。个人认
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为这是最坏的情况，不认可一些人认为去3万。
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从4小时来看基本和日线一致，无需赘述。不过4小时的EMA200形成了一个比较强的支撑4 }: l! C5 ]3 W' c. `
0 I* O9 a9 z7 {, z, B，已经测试4次进行了反弹。本人也多次在EMA200做多吃到了短线涨幅。但考虑一个支撑/ q/ r0 F t' v! B1 }7 w) ?- S
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位被多次测试，那么其跌破的概率就越来越多。因此，如果比特币不能快速收复73100，
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* `% k) a+ d* N& \8 e5 t! w' xEMA200跌破只是时间问题，下一步就看60000的表现。
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9 U, h3 ]# l' S0 h% Z考虑美股连涨5个月有短期见顶的信号，结合美国可能抛售的3万枚比特币。本人近期看空，
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- i! d: P- h7 e1 k/ r认为比特币至少会去次6万。. Y8 }' v) Y* j. {' o* @5 L- B5 F
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2 g: ]' y" p0 j2 \ h% _# m3 _
抛售量这个也是很多的了吧 |
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