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很好的文章,转发给大家看。 [欧赔最优解]
$ y0 J5 p! X0 V& d' E
8 c, v B1 Z& t8 B5 S3 [ u大部分盘口根据即时对比因素的不同,庄家根据自身体系出发,结合欧洲形势,可以得出一个最适合受注的赔率组合,这个组合基本上是庄家“最优”的选择。这是本轮讨论的问题。* p$ ]1 r! T3 @" v: r7 n( F3 r+ f2 S
有些比赛,经过考量,是无法得出一个最优解的,无论怎样做盘,利润都不大,甚至略亏损,这时的做盘原则就是“两害相衡取其轻”,选择一个相对能减少风险的组合受注。这是下轮讨论的要点。4 n ^0 [2 r9 X' n
结合举例说明“最优解”思路的具体运用。9 `4 E1 A( F$ K8 _0 W* F: @3 T
i3 Y5 l B/ I. y
[1], L; R& @: M/ n2 C
英超第21轮,[6]阿森纳0:0[2]曼联。
8 Q" A f" z% c9 l3 I$ ^威廉:2.5/3.1/2.5。9 h# L% m/ \4 c& e* c' v
立博:2.25/3.2/2.75。& l0 D7 x- ~& A% Q. d
这样的强强对话,如果分胜负的话,欧赔的最优解中,平赔需要得到合适的运用,就是充分使用平赔的分散作用(适合于绝大多数强强对话),现盘两大庄,都没有主动运用平赔思维和手法,主动放弃最优解,已经包含不分胜负的看法。
$ L% U! K( a p \; j( H结合对比形势,具体对比你自备的资料中有。
; z/ B3 N. B" R" S" d% A主胜的开法:& v& R& J# F, L3 G! x2 `5 i$ l
威廉:2.5/2.9/2.62。1 T M. i1 b. L+ j5 R
你看胜赔一样,都是2.5,与2.5/3.1/2.5,有什么区别?1 t' J1 p3 C& _$ {
2.9对于2.5的分散与3.1对于2.5的分散效果是不同的,前者对于胜赔的分散效果更大,这是以后经常讨论到的“微小”差异,欧赔的很多关键点就在这“微小”差异上,对微小要点的理解累积达到质变后就是欧赔层次的上升。
5 F0 ]5 R+ J9 b5 _: ]& t主负:
- J- j, R$ S0 i6 p威廉:2.37/3/2.7。类似赛事:皇马0:3巴萨。思路是营造平胜格局,适当阻碍负赔。4 a+ J9 ^7 N- f6 M5 \
去年,阿森纳2:4曼联,威廉是:2.2/3/3,左倾幅度更大,是为了更有效营造平胜格局,同时形成负赔的相应阻力,当然这个位置是有阻力但是也不能使得赔付增加太多。
4 p; r) r9 Y4 r$ ]平局:
0 e2 V' p! j9 E0 P5 q( }; w现盘的思路是,威廉:平赔中庸(不清晰明确表达看好平局的观点、但是赔付也不至于庄家难以承受的位置),胜负均衡双向分散。立博:平赔营造小梯度3.2,但是配合拉低了胜赔,就是增大了胜赔的分散力,同时也没有损失负赔的多少分散力,综合起来足够分散3.2的平赔。
9 p/ b3 l$ Y) T2 B+ E/ O. }% U! o0 I. q j
[2]西甲第18轮,[4]维拉0:0[5]皇马# U; E5 L/ k6 W/ _
威廉:2.3/3.2/2.6。立博:2.5/3.2/2.5。7 u3 A7 t* [6 p. S% \( Y1 {
维拉由于参加欧冠进入16强增加了广义实力,皇马近况麻麻增加了失利可能,是经典平中庸胜负标准双分的思路。
! h+ K8 ^ e6 j( k思维与上场一样。1 d5 j. s U4 \) v& t2 m
7 D- A' f6 Q/ h$ a# K[3]
& n3 h' D. \- u西甲第17轮,[3]皇马1:2[14]桑坦德。# H- }! c% n1 v! [0 O( @1 D6 K9 W
威廉:1.28/4.5/8。& f; ^5 w" o# h7 p* L: J$ w
立博:1.33/4/8,变1.3/4/9。, H* x7 l7 O8 g4 F- B% f( C
主队近况不佳,客队132可以。
* E& g) I2 M/ v- O8 ?广义实力对比是:人气强队VS中下游球队。
0 f6 R( M! v5 K7 J主胜最优解:1.22/5/9.5,至多开到1.25/4.5/10。; Z8 A; y& E, e* E
现在两家都将胜赔抬高,幅度不小,显然放弃了主胜的选择,则断定主队不胜,至于如何判断是负,有些概念需要逐渐讲解后再分析。
2 J2 @; |8 u# r1 x* l/ y% ]主胜的话,如果胜赔一定要开1.28,那么只能采用超低平来配合,才能有效分散“1.28这么高”的胜赔,例如:1.28/4/10,甚至小庄可以开出的1.28/3.95/10.5这样的组合。
; k. y) ], m5 j" @7 o" e" ~' C, G( s5 m: ~- T5 z0 ]* |) Q
那么,如何才知道,何种组合才是一场对阵的最优解?3 y4 a7 n& N5 g& g( G. u
结合我发给的赔率统计表,可以感性认识一下。
- R/ w- z: M% Y同时需要一定比赛科学的有步骤的分析的积累,这是真正有价值的积累。' q% n9 e, E; e- b0 r6 a
以后的“赔率框架位置”专讲,会起到定位作用。% [( R" o% d6 |. I
5 F. I( |" C5 q+ n6 f很多时候,寻找判断最优解,不一定要分析出具体位置,分析出相应的营造最优解的思路即可得到很大帮助。
5 V/ ~0 T, f6 R, m* G$ l2 y+ W+ W# ? K$ d
例如:
$ {+ {2 ~4 e) t+ d# H西甲第17轮,[20]贝迪斯3:0[19]阿拉维斯
! [7 f: C: a+ H. T6 |. ? C0 K双方战绩均劣,此时威廉1.8/3.25/3.8,分析开平局的思路,显然不能将平赔开这么高,因为无论如何做盘,3.25的平赔都是非常难分散的,连更优解也很难营造。7 w6 y% V! |+ S+ Z$ j
所以,首先判断分胜负,结合基本实力,简单分析就是主胜。7 A2 }2 }8 ~ ^/ x6 T" g! O
8 C3 L, E0 T, j0 o, f( `欧赔有很多此类很有效的分析思路,当然不是开高就不出开低就出的简单理解。9 S. T6 O! @; v' |, e4 F
当类似思路多了,精准判定一场比赛则是现实可及的,无论场面多么热闹。 |
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