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[虚拟币交流]
比特币再度失守3万大关！美国就业远超预期刺激Fed加息（转载）
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虽然近期加密货币市场有所回暖，但美国整体经济指标却似乎仍未有放松货币紧缩政策的征兆。联准会主席鲍威尔也在六月底刚举办的欧洲中央银行论坛上，再次表明「坚守货币紧缩政策」的立场。/ h) N1 a" s' b) ^: u
+ {: w- n! c: w. ^: t/ \. {: p而昨(6)日晚间，联准会官员针对6月的FOMC(联邦公开市场委员会)会议纪要作出评论，明显表达出与鲍威尔相似的货币紧缩立场。0 P% _4 ~7 B, Y3 R; ] V
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联准会官员：当前经济形势强劲，暗示还有两次升息
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据路透社报道，达拉斯联邦储备银行行长Lorie Logan在昨(6)晚举办的纽约中央银行研究协会年会上强调，当前经济依然很强势，需要进一步的升息来降温：FOMC必须贯彻我们6月发出的信号。(当时)三分之二的参会人员预计至少还有两次升息。
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2 |2 q4 O5 g% D6 ~( I u5 |: P而采取升息则是出于对通膨下降不明显的忧虑，且当前的劳动力市场等指标放缓速度不达预期：我仍然非常担心通膨率是否会以可持续的方式及时回到目标值。通膨持续高于目标值、强于预期的劳动力市场使得我们必须采取更严格的货币政策。
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1 f3 E! J1 R) U市场预计缩表结束时间过于乐观% O% u1 L3 o! u2 Z5 S& X8 Q, o$ M( `
" P: j4 q, a# Y2 ?# D S/ n4 T; A关于货币紧缩政策，Logan也分享了联准会缩表计划的观点。首先，她认为市场预计的缩表结束时间过于乐观，比她预计的时间还要早。并且，即使在通胀指标降低后，联准会依旧有可能继续抛售所持债券：这将是维持货币政策相对于经济表现立场的举措，而不是为了降低通胀率的刺激性政策。
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同时，Logan也表示联准会资产负债表的相关因素目前没有影响到对利率的决策，并且由于逆回购措施，财政部的帐户也不太可能影响到银行准备金。% ^. g$ y3 m9 H# I& p% ]6 O3 y
$ \' {, J; v# X. I3 ^9 w; D8 j美国就业数据超预期
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; T V) U9 n* t( z' C另一方面，美国昨(6)晚公布的6月份ADP新增就业人数增加49.7万人，比市场预期的22.8万人多了近一倍，创下自去年2月以来的最高水平，表示着就业市场依然强劲。7 j9 F3 @8 z( i! c$ S( J8 }
; W: }9 @- O. s$ b1 N. b5 N受消息影响资产市场各类指数急跌，比特币也从今日高点31,500美元急挫，并跌破30,000美元。& O( P% ], q6 n4 A Z+ V
Y8 d! r8 ]* o比特币再跌破三万美元
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9 P) l( c6 a7 h I$ KFed官员鹰派的立场、加上强劲的经济数据，加强了进一步升息的可能性，也让美股和加密货币市场进一步下跌。9 ?% j# w4 e' k+ A
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比特币在昨(7)日来到31,500美元，创下今年最高价位之后随即快速下滑，今晨八点左右最低更一度来到29,701美元，再度失守3万美元大关，近24小时下挫1.79%。, @$ p) c" t C6 x+ r
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/ G; x7 S3 a$ p市场认为7月会议将升息1码为92.4%
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另一方面，据CMEGroup的FedWatch工具数据显示，截稿前市场认为7月会议将再升息1码的概率已升至92.4%，而保持不变的概率仅7.6%。5 G9 ?4 X1 i' E! X% H( ]
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目前，7月利率决策公布的具体时间为本月27日的凌晨2:00(北京时间)。
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