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[体育菠菜心得方法] 《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第一节]
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第一节 平手初盘( e+ G* C* K+ A
     
/ N6 A& U4 \! d; M4 V) O" F     平手中水,主队有利
0 o9 _4 }& a3 W6 U     在英超08-09赛季中,澳彩初盘平手盘占到所有380场比赛中的的13%,出现频率相对不高。在全部51场比赛中,主队21胜15平15负。主胜率不到5成、平局比率29%、客胜率比29%。此数据与06-07、07-08赛季的统计结果基本吻合,再看09-10赛季。7 Z$ b7 n3 N; H. b. R! A
     09-10赛季半程主队平手盘成绩统计:6 b2 p' P  H) W3 B# X
     英超主队9 g1 Y( R9 }+ B" ^, h
     胜:13场 48%
9 U# S9 m  `' O# m4 k- g5 U7 v7 }# @     平:5场 17%9 s8 _9 Z* S" Q! c
     负:9场 35%9 q6 X; P/ D1 U
     通过09-10赛季已完成的初盘为平手盘的成绩统计,可以发现,在平手盘下本赛季英超主队的主场胜率50%、较之08-09赛季的41%明显提高,虽然只是多半程的统计结果,但是随着联赛深入,平手盘会逐渐减少,全赛季的数据不会出现太大变化。: O. x1 B9 J: @7 c% \9 X
     
+ G/ P6 l& g9 x3 j     一、初盘阶段; w& ?0 g9 N- S2 m# H
     具体到水位如下:
3 A: ^0 L# q( X" V  e     初盘平手低水:英超主队3胜3平4负7 e; G/ u2 g2 K# H
     初盘平手中水:英超主队4胜2平0负
9 ]* Q. {# D% N! A4 W6 J) _     初盘平手高水:英超主队6胜1平2负
9 m6 K- H, l& `0 @! D     
& ?7 C# |1 _& n+ f     分析:初盘平手低水时,英超客队赢球的机会较多,该水位中0.74-0.78区间主队基本不败,足彩较支持31格局。而0.84水位出现了2次、主队均都输球,该水位下足彩建议双选30为主。初盘0.80、0.82水位下打出任何结果的可能都属正常,较缺乏规律性,14场足彩建议大包,任选9建议回避此类初盘水位下的比赛。
0 R& ~' @! t2 I, R: z/ u, l& Z     初盘阶段平手中水,英超主队不败比率最高,足彩可重点考虑复选31,单场玩法可以博平手中水主队不败。
: e5 F& n8 z: E, ]8 w/ X. F     初盘阶段主队平手高水,打出平局的机会不大,足彩双选30较为正路。* ^4 N  d* A' E: C3 d$ Y
     
" C5 L" S4 Q1 `- r; \     二、临场阶段+ V5 v/ a# b$ R" F7 W
     ! h* P$ H1 q; e. C! ]
     具体到变盘和水位如下:5 R' Z5 X8 i8 f0 y: ~
     临场阶段出现降盘:英超主队3胜2平2负+ j$ h' R. m% z
     临场阶段出现升盘:英超主队3胜2平1负! m( K  O5 x9 ]3 H% [
     ; m( o- n0 ]" E
     临场阶段转为主队受让,存在客队临场大热可能,也可以正路理解是主队由弱转为更弱的体现,统计结果是主队3胜2平2负,虽然平局记录较高,但是浅盘下足彩还是复选30较为稳妥。
* {- l1 N" @% U: |: S4 }     临场阶段主队升盘,打出什么结果都属正常,足彩竞猜难度较大。而这个临场变盘的盘路中有3场与朴茨茅斯有关,为了尽可能做到精选,现将具体盘口表现做如下浅析:
* r9 E4 U( Q5 B' d     ; w8 N( _! Z: b2 p0 T: O
     朴茨茅斯2-3博尔顿
6 A- ^/ e, _4 ?& Y  O/ h5 C     初盘:0.82平手1.040 L  l* F- A+ J+ H9 g2 q: I
     终盘:1.01平手/半球0.85
  I: R. B) e# S& b. g     ' p; J9 S( u: N- W
     朴茨茅斯1-1西汉姆$ M4 |( n' {8 |# |2 t0 Q& M/ ]* e
     初盘:0.76平手1.10
' e8 W" ], @  U, Y6 i% P: h     终盘:0.95平手/半球0.91$ o* V# K$ v& w! p+ b# c
     & i; V2 j# t0 Y
     朴茨茅斯4-0维冈竞技( h- P3 e: k- h$ W7 P7 |% P
     初盘:0.82平手1.04# c8 Y! Y3 f  r* j2 d
     终盘:0.88平手/半球0.98
  P- h$ I/ m8 S, x. P  ^7 i; `     
& V7 F  N8 ^& m4 F( h     伯恩利2-1西汉姆7 }1 T1 R5 E2 v- [" Z/ k' J. K, R/ C
     初盘:0.88平手0.98
1 u, |' d0 [* V1 Z/ j; s4 Q5 J     终盘:1.12平/半0.74
# N" w4 o# {# R5 G0 r     我们可以发现,0.82/1.04水位出现了2次,最终都分出了胜负。而初盘平手低水临场变化为平/半高水时主队盘口反倒没有1.12超高水安全。那么,根据这个水位变化,对再出现临场升盘的盘路,我们既可以对投注方向做出相对精确的判断。5 D* e( [$ g7 u% ?% d! F0 I8 [3 T5 c7 P
     提示1:在平手盘0.82/1.04初盘水位,分出胜负的可能性较大。/ v  q0 N; W7 D/ A1 w8 j( ^# R3 D- [& b
     提示2:平手超低水临场出现升盘,足彩应以31为主。平手低水升盘由冷转热的可能较大,足彩建议01双选。
' }" q: U; b) O$ O9 c5 O     
( }) M4 d% y. L4 }- X: w     三、球队表现
3 t, A$ q) h$ P     
. c' d6 \' c/ N     结合到球队表现,虽然本赛季利物浦持续低迷,但是在平手盘下却是表现最好的队伍,2战皆胜、分别战胜了曼联和阿森纳,可见红军面对强敌开出平手盘时并不处于劣势,反倒拥有神勇表现,足彩首选3值得信任。在该盘下值得认可的球队还有斯托克城、埃弗顿、曼城、博尔顿、西汉姆,这些球队均都在主场赢球或不败,平手盘下足彩打出3、1的可能都比较大。打出平局较少的球队是富勒姆、狼队、伯恩利,这些球队主场平手盘下非胜即败,作风硬朗少有平局,足彩注意多走两头。表现较差的球队分别是桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技,这些球队主场平手盘下不胜或输球的记录较多,足彩打出01可能较大。  y% u; R3 P! \# E1 u0 \4 ~2 ~# t
     
! ~. V! R. D( B; U# {/ E% d     四、投注要点
! D2 {% U2 G$ r     要点1:平手中水、主多不败
6 z/ |" h0 I: S- M( {) u$ r     要点2:平手降盘、走两头9 t8 M1 ]9 a" S3 E0 {( E
     要点3:利物浦平手盘,多选不败/ J  U6 X& _/ n7 z
     要点4:伯恩利主场平手盘口价值较大7 b# K+ I' T; i/ i1 _8 v
     要点5:阿森纳平手盘不值得信任, E9 L- a% h& v" r9 ]
     要点6:桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技注意30出现可能性较大
$ n# x' ]/ b: s2 T+ s2 D     要点7:初盘0.80、0.82低水,足彩任选九或单场、竞彩时建议回避此水位下的比赛
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谢谢楼主的心得分享!
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新人来学习下,谢谢楼主。
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