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[lastpost] => 2793921 新年的第二天虚拟币市场也是大涨了啊 1769509546 g9527
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随着价格的整合,比特币的需求已降至近几周的最低水平。然而,交易所比特币供应的减少使得价格大幅下跌成为可能。( T8 v# c( v" E& a% C0 B
自8月5日从下跌中恢复以来,比特币[BTC]的交易区间在56K-62K美元之间。
# _6 L% j) w3 d) c+ L8 ~* z/ D5 P. n* r& c8 Y7 A( y
自8月8日以来,价格没有跌破或超过这一区间,这表明可能会出现盘整或市场不确定性。( D' T3 o# j! W w; m5 W
( Y3 }& b" J( r& Z4 ?9 Z4 v阻止该区域以上出现重大突破的因素之一是比特币需求增长疲软,根据CryptoQuant的数据,比特币需求仍处于较低水平。最近几周,这甚至变成了负面的。& G- W4 y: W6 f
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2024年4月,比特币的需求达到了三年来的峰值,恰逢比特币减半事件。然而,自那以后,它已降至今年的最低水平。
8 z# ?6 H( N! a5 e" I, j9 u2 z" y E5 f: P7 j& V! n
那么,为什么比特币的需求会下降呢?
~6 g# n+ o. O! `! v. d8 I: z+ G+ o5 {, }1 m! w) L
观察ETF和鲸鱼活动
: F- s$ }/ c* W分析指出,流入现货比特币ETF的资金正在枯竭。3月,随着BTC飙升至历史高点,比特币ETF的平均每日购买量为12500 BTC。
( Q) M# ^1 g: z, R) r- R# t
0 Z7 ?& Z/ V# S6 Q% P上周降至1300 BTC。
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从SoSoValue上可以看出,自8月9日以来,流入现货比特币ETF的资金总额一直低于1亿美元大关。虽然这些产品拥有超过550亿美元的净资产,但需要购买活动来提振整体需求。
' E- h; F& o( A& {* G& b- [. D5 t" G$ @+ @9 }0 v
鲸鱼似乎也在减少他们的比特币股份。30天平均鲸鱼持有量已从2月份的6%降至1%。这是自2021年2月以来每个CryptoQuant的最快下降。3 C$ M8 s* P! u9 g+ L9 A9 O5 S) o
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鲸鱼在支持比特币价格增长方面发挥着至关重要的作用。鲸鱼持有量的减少表明整个市场普遍看跌。
! V1 \" E- k( v; i- e& c! F
, ]" {5 ^! x4 y- u# z* NSantiment的数据进一步证实了鲸鱼活动的减少,该数据显示,自3月以来,持有1000至10000枚比特币的比特币地址大幅下降。
, W( [1 Y; M+ |$ ?. H7 _- ]$ ^
) i9 c% p2 v8 L; {8 u: T5 {2 F尽管鲸鱼活动放缓,但长期比特币持有者增加了头寸。这些持有者一直在以每月约391000 BTC的速度增加他们的BTC持有量。
A$ B" g Z% Y7 H5 Z% T# V
( p. ^) K6 `& Q5 r6 ? O4 V比特币会突破其区间吗?9 R+ E/ O8 N- t! ~2 K; E. C' Z
随着对比特币需求的放缓,人们不禁要问,比特币是否会突破5.6万至6.2万美元的区间。对链上数据的深入研究描绘了一幅严峻的画面。8 ~( G5 e- K( K3 s& T. Z* g9 \
% j6 H9 ^4 _* ]* @' c: P
根据IntoTheBlock的数据,超过300万个地址以这个价格范围购买了比特币。以这些价格买入的新投资者并没有获得可观的利润。# `" a& k6 z/ u5 C
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因此,突破62000美元将面临抛售压力,因为他们急于获利。, d g, m: k6 T9 u' ^" N7 ~( s
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技术指标也无法证明突破的必要性。相对强弱指数(RSI)也保持区间震荡,购买势头没有显著飙升。
! W( b% B- u" @: f& J' M& {4 V ?) G; o
位于积极区域的Awesome Oscillator显示出上升趋势。然而,短直方图条指向可能减弱的上升趋势。
# y' P; g2 P. Q P+ V$ G8 h: s+ ?然而,由于交易所比特币供应量下降,短期内不太可能出现低于当前范围的急剧下降趋势。& F9 R" h, z+ j2 U# O+ s
- l1 f* M0 P, p. z! q6 P根据CryptoQuant的数据,交易所供应比率在过去一年中急剧下降。因此,尽管需求明显较低,但外汇供应也较低,从而降低了大幅回调的风险。
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当前离线
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