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[虚拟币交流]
比特币交易员发出“超买”警告 比特币价格瞄准8.4万美元（转）
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比特币（BTC）在第一季度的最后一个华尔街交易日中有所走高，但比特币价格观点远未确信空头已经失去控制。" H7 Z7 H2 O0 o. _, l* V7 o
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3月31日华尔街开盘时段，比特币价格小幅走高，尽管交易者对短期走势仍持风险规避态度。
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; V& q1 G! I, ] 比特币相对强弱指数（RSI）暗示跌势或将延续
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: Q+ A4 A( ]5 H, r( x Cointelegraph Markets Pro与TradingView数据显示，Bitstamp交易所BTC/USD交易对当日上涨1.5%，最高触及8.3914万美元。
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尽管美股开盘走低，但在季度收盘前的最后几小时，比特币仍迎来期待已久的反弹。8 e1 l8 s( ^% c! {
0 t1 V! S5 h& h/ C* S3 L$ w 市场动能持续受4月2日即将生效的美国新关税政策影响，黄金在创下3128美元/盎司历史新高后亦出现回落。
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0 F* z9 B; ~4 |: A+ t P3 U 针对比特币价格走势，多数市场参与者仍持谨慎态度。# X' m, H, T) h$ {
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知名交易员Roman在最新X平台分析中针对4小时BTC/USD图表指出：“正在重新测试我们关注的关键84，000美元区域”。他在引用相对强弱指数（RSI）时预测，) ]' a V6 ^( D; D2 P
+ n5 H# N$ r* i; H' ?/ f# z, \价格或将回落至更接近80，000美元关口的水平。
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p$ K* E0 D% s* s; }0 U r “从短期框架（LTF）看，随着下行突破和看跌回测完成，我认为价格将开始走低，”Roman补充道，“同时RSI正在回测50中轴，而随机指标已显示超买。更高时间$ q( K7 o+ L5 p( t
5 V) `0 b( ~/ D9 W# d3 Y" R! f) N框架（HTF）同样呈现看跌倾向。”6 |; a6 g. i$ \4 W/ B. R
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: a) p) b7 s* l! U+ t5 E 知名交易分析师Rekt Capital进一步解读RSI信号，指出比特币在突破数月下降趋势线后，正在日线级别回测支撑位。
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% w. \' K5 [2 s& C ] “$BTC的RSI正试图将下降趋势线转化为支撑位，同时价格走势也面临下降趋势压力，”他向X平台粉丝总结道，“若RSI能成功守住趋势线支撑．．．将显示市场正在
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积蓄动能，价格有望突破现行下降通道。”( n. L* b) r4 f7 t; K$ b
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早前Cointelegraph报道指出，多项比特币价格指标共同勾勒出当前牛市阶段的疲软态势，暗示回调行情或将延续。
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2 l& `1 l6 Y# {$ R 与此同时，各预测平台给出的BTC目标价位已下探至6.5万美元，部分模型甚至显示更低预期。3 T+ O( c9 v& O) F1 O0 G) C
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比特币价格分析显现与2024年末相似走势
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当前3月及第一季度的整体表现均未达市场预期。
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3 _: u1 Q$ I7 m3 c7 a+ k& q2 ~$ g 监测平台CoinGlass数据显示，在缺乏上行催化剂的背景下，截至发稿时BTC/USD年内累计下跌10.8%，3月单月跌幅达1.1%。
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) k0 ?' a3 W3 [' \5 t+ m6 p 该报告特别强调了比特币与美股日益增强的关联性：“尽管市场动荡，但近几周价格走势已在7.8万至8.8万美元区间形成整理格局。值得注意的是，7 u! X, Y e) R5 y$ Z
$ \6 Q# }% t' F+ L2 B7 M市场恐慌性抛售迹象正在缓解——反应性卖盘减少，而长期持有者已重启积累模式。”
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