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BCA Research表示，投资者开始对美国的“避险资产”地位产生怀疑，而这可能对比特币构成利好。! ?1 E( |- m( R ?4 @7 v2 V$ r! k& }
3 }( U/ o* E( d w# t 该研究机构在最新给投资者的报告中指出，目前其整体投资组合保持防御性配置——减持股票、增持固定收益资产，并在股票投资中降低对美国8 N3 b! t, \" f7 {# b, g3 f8 S
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市场的权重。原因在于，海外投资者正集体“回避”美国资产，担忧美国政策已从“贸易战”转向“资本战”。: @' Z( Y6 ]% n5 O3 H5 p2 u
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与此同时，BCA也首次将比特币纳入其研究覆盖范围，并将比特币的评级从“减持”上调至“中性”。今年2月，BCA曾出于市场情绪过于乐观的判断而# n; D/ M, K' X9 x
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“短期看空”比特币。! Q: Q. q% o* E' ~
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“在全球资金撤离美国资产的背景下，比特币有望成为受益者。”报告写道，“市场情绪已经从高点大幅回落。今年以来，活跃交易的比特币在整体已
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4 W: ` Z5 |) q# x% d6 M6 X实现市值中的占比急剧下降。”
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报告还指出，比特币作为“数字黄金”，正越来越像实物黄金那样表现，在美国资产大规模抛售期间依旧保持坚挺。 y% o; H6 o9 M6 `+ ^
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9 T d" \" @3 Y }' A, [; a: j 根据Coin Metrics的数据，自4月3日——即特朗普总统宣布初始关税政策的第二天起——比特币已上涨约12%。同期，现货黄金上涨了8%，; F* m; |+ \, e l9 `$ k$ n
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而纳斯达克综合指数几乎持平。) }/ h6 P( y& |" G# y2 i( Q! J
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BCA在报告中进一步指出：“虽然美国经济增长目前仍表现坚挺，但关税政策的模糊性，已导致企业资本支出意愿大幅下滑。”此外，“激烈的6 `9 p& p6 D6 Z6 m' \' b$ z. a
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利率波动也再度打击了住宅房地产市场。”# @: M4 D# P7 d5 [! i
$ D& j8 @- D8 x3 z# C4 o “尽管特朗普ZF在某些强硬言论上有所收敛，但企业仍迫切需要明确的政策信号，才能恢复投资。”报告写道，“若无法及时提供清晰政策，/ o& v7 x( T- ]9 K
* n0 |) K m+ h& x* |+ f$ e; y$ ~2 W. b将可能引发更为严重的经济衰退。”
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