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[虚拟币交流]
随着看涨势头减弱，比特币面临测试这一关键支撑位的风险（转）
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过去几天，比特币价格表现出犹豫不决和疲软的迹象，大多呈横盘整理，并曾几次短暂突破10.5万美元。这种缺乏动力的行情正值加密货币市场持续应对中东持续动荡的影响之际。
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虽然目前比特币价格走势的波动表明加密货币的看涨势头当时还不足以让人停下来，最近的链上数据不仅证实了这一推论，而且还为旗舰加密货币的潜在下一站提供了见解。
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高级情绪指数跌破50%
7 ~4 m! E5 h/ U! E4 B/ G在 6 月 14 日 X 平台的一篇文章中，链上分析师 Axel Adler Jr.已报道投资者对比特币的看涨情绪可能正在开始减弱。这一链上观察基于比特币高级情绪指数指标，该指标衡量市场中看涨和看跌仓位之间的平衡，以衡量整体交易者情绪。
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. Z5 Z+ S5 V: h$ H: g顾名思义，这个链上指标可以洞察特定加密货币市场的总体情绪。例如，高于 60-70% 的读数通常表示市场看涨情绪强劲，通常在价格上涨之前或期间出现.) t7 U' R+ C( j# t B
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同时，当指标值约为50%，通常表明市场情绪中性，即看跌和看涨之间存在一定程度的犹豫或平衡。这通常出现在盘整阶段，即市场确定方向性走势之前。3 t% D/ ~0 k- M6 d8 F; g
2 j( a# h. l/ X4 l( ^4 }另一方面，当比特币高级情绪指数低于40-50%时，意味着市场恐慌或谨慎情绪日益高涨，这可能预示着比特币价格将进一步下跌。然而，如果市场情绪过于悲观，也可能预示着价格已经触底# f/ Z* z; I2 Y- v0 ~4 g$ {* M
在X的帖子中，Adler Jr.报告称，比特币情绪指数已跌破50%的中性门槛，降至约46%，处于看跌区域。据这位分析师称，比特币情绪指数在6月初达到80%以上的峰值，但在达到高点后开始缓慢下降。( ^1 F, @% q) x, d+ L4 d) _
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随着 BTC 近期从 103,000 美元上涨至 105,000 美元，未平仓合约等其他重要指标也表明投资者支持率极低，进一步表明看涨势头疲软。
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- v( ]5 |9 W a2 A9 g9 b5 R比特币价格下一步走势如何？* W: M. x; Q; M8 q+ p
Adler Jr. 认为，目前市场中观察到的犹豫不决可能会持续下去，直到一些重要的因素（例如情绪指数）发生变化。对于恢复上升趋势，分析师解释说，该指数必须反弹至 60-65% 以上，而这只有在净买入量和未平仓合约同时增加的情况下才会发生。
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如果这种情况没有发生，比特币价格将面临测试下一个支撑位的风险，即102,000美元至103,000美元左右。因此，在市场交易时务必谨慎，因为下一个支撑位的强度仍然具有很高的概率。. `) F8 {8 v( d+ ^. H
. L' _2 t% h' X( V1 P& n4 @3 h+ K, y截至撰写本文时，比特币的价值为 105,419 美元，过去 24 小时内没有出现显著的价格变动。
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