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[虚拟币交流]
当前市场：为什么BTC横盘但Altcoin却在“流血”？
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在最近的几次走势中，我们很容易注意到：BTC横盘（震荡）在稳定的价格区间内。
6 P+ I5 W+ a# z9 ~: Q- zAltcoin持续下跌，尽管比特币尚未出现剧烈下跌。
5 \0 x* \0 D9 j' m越南市场的USDT汇率仍然很高，显示出对稳定币的需求并未减弱。
9 n+ K9 W9 Q# o: T你们可以比较两张图表：altcoin/BTC和Altcoin/USDT的相对强弱指数。5 q1 h4 o x3 }- Z; p" l
从九月初开始。上涨时，alt/btc弱于usdt，因为atl/usdt对冲使用了期货杠杆，而下跌时则强于usdt，因为直接通过现货交易。* k& M! y& q& b2 i% _% T$ f! Z
alt/btc4 i, \1 M+ C5 ^& w
alt/usdt q- q* u( N& f5 A9 l6 o# J% ]4 Z
那么，发生了什么？
$ q$ y$ V* I1 p( i. V7 g1. 大户轮换资金% d3 m. ^: x9 t1 C/ Q0 i
与其直接将山寨币抛售为USDT（会导致alt/USDT图表大幅下滑），大户和市场做市商选择将山寨币转换为BTC或ETH。
8 \7 h# m) X" Y f这种方式使得alt/USDT对看起来仍然相对稳定。7 |+ I k6 O3 T1 ~
但实际上，如果观察ALT/BTC或ALT/ETH对，我们会发现山寨币贬值非常严重。5 m a0 H8 b8 [1 ^
2. 市场的防御心理/ a+ X" T" b1 M1 e; X
投资者正在缩小风险，优先选择BTC和ETH——这些资产流动性大，波动性小。
# V/ F/ d/ g- v, n: A5 `这解释了为什么资金没有流入山寨币，导致它们逐渐疲弱。( N2 W, X& i, d9 e: A% ~! k& {
3. 需要关注的信号
0 L. C0 h) |( U0 F, c e0 kBTC主导率和ETH主导率有上升趋势→确认资金流向大币种。$ I1 ]5 H; ]$ v* I. X3 P: |/ p4 y
山寨币市场总市值持续下降→显示山寨币仍在被抽血。4 a2 K9 p0 k1 A+ Q
USDT保持高价→稳定币需求依然强劲，USDT主导率仍高，但尚未出现资金愿意冒险回流的迹象。
" u X/ U) c4 C5 [4. 对投资者的意义
* ^) Q+ n$ a7 \在这个阶段，缺乏新买盘的山寨币难以形成独立波动。
2 j& z+ ~2 D: e! O, o如果BTC横盘时间过长后再大幅波动，山寨币可能会被“踩”出一个波段。7 W! k4 \$ t {4 v1 D2 L% e
安全策略：关注资金流动，避免过多持有弱势山寨币，集中于顶级币或在强烈信号出现后再大举投资山寨币。4 J3 r. F" M/ X6 d; I8 J, V2 x
结论：市场正进入大户收集BTC/ETH流动性的阶段，山寨币只是资金轮换周期中的“猎物”。散户投资者需要保持警觉，不要被alt/USDT尚未崩盘的感觉迷惑，以为这是机会。. Q: ]( J$ w; l: p( `: a; H
#加密货币#8 l/ P( \; f$ t$ y/ L: \
/ u, {7 X# ~3 c! C5 V* x, ]6 e2 ^ |
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这波山寨币被割得血淋淋的，BTC装死不动，小币全在裸奔，庄家明显在抽水换仓呢 |
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市场操作有点阴谋论，大户在搞鬼转移资金，小散步森严防范保身。 |
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