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[体育菠菜心得方法]
《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第六节]
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第六节 一球/球半初盘/ \) k# ]0 R6 x) y+ _
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初盘高水,豪门要防冷
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09-10赛季半程主队一球/球半盘成绩统计:3 r1 [; i A4 z* U
英超主队
, p$ S: B: _7 _/ U# C 胜:11场 79%
5 e; y D5 G% F6 _2 L [ 平:2场 14%. ]$ M( i. K' l& y5 @% \0 u- S
负:1场 7%9 g+ [ u% m7 {) U9 J5 ^8 h; {
; T/ u& G' m B, h1 A- I 通过新赛季半程统计发现,两个赛季中一球/球半盘下主队表现都较理想,仅出现1次输球,但是也发现,在09-10赛季较于上个赛季0输球记录本赛季防冷出0的可能不可忽略。先以09-10赛季的盘口水位统计为例,开始分析英超主队一球/球半盘路。
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一、初盘阶段( T" D) U0 f0 d" {. K2 f0 {( l2 C
' z: G n* ?6 e: \$ g- V/ i7 e0 @ 具体到水位如下:
' X9 }+ Q s7 ~$ f- D% S, a 初盘阶段低水:英超主队3胜
' e9 q6 g- H/ I% O. K6 h4 ^ 初盘阶段中水:英超主队3胜2平" [* T0 o$ z6 u5 }* [2 E; [
初盘阶段高水:英超主队5胜1平. |5 k( D/ g& A
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分析:上赛季初盘阶段低水的赛次只有1场,结果是主队取胜。而在09-10赛季初盘阶段0.82-0.86上盘低水水位出现3次,主队盘路2赢1输半。分别是:
" A. s* ^5 B% a" c" D5 Y) G6 q+ |
, j- C4 U/ `0 P' P' q 维拉3-0朴茨茅斯 0.86一球/球半1.00. e# q$ S6 {3 v4 S
热刺2-1伯明翰 0.82一球/球半1.02
5 K% s; X3 t: l1 C T3 s! U 热刺5-0伯恩利 0.86一球/球半1.00- Z2 x. j0 @3 F# M J3 q# E+ N* O
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初盘阶段中水,主要发生在0.92中水至0.98中高水区间,英超主队3胜2平、主队盘路为2赢3输,成绩并不理想。其中打平的水位发生在初盘0.92/0.94、0.98/0.88,可以发现两类水位从半/一初盘开始对平局的支持次数较为频繁,需要引起关注。总体来看该初盘水位对足彩来说思路比较清晰,侧重点还是在于防冷平,足彩31格局较明朗。7 B2 {3 a5 r7 x0 H8 V
初盘阶段高水,英超主队5胜1负,只出现了1次客胜即曼联主场被维拉爆冷。水位表现即:曼联0-1维拉(1.04 一球/球半0.82)。其它赢球比赛中1.00/0.86水位出现2次,主队均都赢球赢盘。即:热刺2-0西汉姆、曼城4-1布莱克本。结合总体成绩分析,该盘口下足彩主胜做胆的价值价高。
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二、临场阶段
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- h, k0 s5 t% D: C 具体到盘口如下:
# D% a1 T- O/ v: \ 临场阶段升盘: 英超主队1胜( S3 X$ R. e3 a; i' ?6 ]
临场阶段降盘: 英超主队4胜1平
$ U5 P- H" `3 e P. k& @, o 分析:临场阶段升盘的比赛目前只出现了1场,即热刺5-0大炒伯恩利的比赛。盘口水位即:
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3 @! q0 u& J1 g M2 y9 [. H$ p 热刺VS伯恩利; M2 v5 S2 D2 R9 s" b' B2 O
初盘:0.86一球/球半1.00
% U2 I1 L8 `! I+ G# K4 c 终盘:0.77球半1.09* ~. b' y+ ]1 R
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临场阶段出现降盘在一球/球半盘中出现次数较多。英超主队表现较为理想,取得了4胜1平的战绩,盘路为3赢1走1输。其中从中水降盘出现1次切主队被客队逼平,即爱华顿1-1狼队的比赛。在初盘水位0.98一球/球半0.88,临场水位0.80一球1.06区间内发生。而从高水降盘出现了4场主队取得全胜。从足彩细分角度分析,一球/球半出现降盘总体上是主队做胆格局,而对中水降盘的盘口类型应对冷平做出防范,足彩走31即可。
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三、球队表现
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a" w8 K" w% e) U5 R 在英超09-10赛季主让一球/球半初盘下,表现最好的球队当属曼城和热刺,在该盘口下都取得了胜利,这两支球队的一球/球半盘足彩做胆值得信任。在该盘口下豪门球队都有过输球或者被对手逼平的记录,足彩注意防冷平或爆大冷出0的可能。在该盘口下很少平局的球队是利物浦、曼联,它们都是非胜即败,足彩多选30为主。打成平局可能较大的是维拉和阿森纳,在主场被对手逼平的可能不小,足彩注意防平出1。) }8 K" F) I8 j. W* x
" H( R3 k B9 k3 G" t" `- F, S+ Q 四、投注要点
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3 f: ~7 Q5 Y1 o3 Z 要点1:初盘低水,主胜的保证
# Y8 |2 C, M# {$ \- |- ` 要点2:初盘中水,重点防平
: m3 o% ]1 {8 t5 w; z, v" \ 要点3:初盘高水,主胜可期,但要注意豪门在此盘下被爆冷可能$ r! u0 K% u7 ~' z5 Z9 q, [+ ?
要点4:中水临场降盘,足彩双选31
$ |( }; e$ L0 n* k5 [, @4 B1 K! o 要点5:红魔、红军此盘下打平概率较低$ J( K, Q6 R/ k: {
要点6:曼城、热刺赢盘多,足彩做胆可信任2 s! U1 q3 x% M. h1 n( M
要点7:阿森纳、维拉的平局不可忽视
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# Z6 n% M( \3 K* d% R 对英超一球/球半初盘临场降盘的一些看法
7 y2 d( I4 R! l, X+ ~! d4 Q1 K5 B 对于多数玩家来说,一球/球半降盘是比较难琢磨的盘口。如变换角度理解,深盘降盘一方
$ A7 w1 }. [/ v; z7 B 面是打击玩家对上盘信心而阻击盘口,另一方面则是庄家吸引筹码的表现。但是通过英超本赛季的几场此类盘路的结果,可以看发现出现降盘的上盘球队多数都能赢球赢盘。关于此类盘路在前面章节有过具体讲述,这里只拿个别实例简单说明。曼城2-0斯托克城,就是主队初盘让一球/球半1.06临场向一球0.84低水降盘的案例,简单解析就是曼城主场三连胜、斯托克主客场均都萎靡,曼城毫无降盘的任何支持题材,在此只能解释为本盘属于降低上盘赔付的反诱手法。(具体盘路分析在本书第二部分方法篇中有详述)综合一球/球半临场降盘的总体表现,足彩将31作为主流较为稳健。
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