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[lastpost] => 2802381 方程式创始人：买入价值200万美元ETH，还有2000万子弹备用抄底 1769922273 22301
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美股波动性罕见超越新兴市场和比特币，同时一向被视为安全资产的美债剧烈波动，这让投资者开始质疑持有美国资产的明智性。
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$ e, d* n) U# T* J) q9 Z9 S瑞银认为，一旦全球无风险利率出现波动，意味着所有市场都将被颠覆。分析师Ed Al-Hussainy更是一针见血地指出：“我其实不担心
" h: G2 J* @' c7 ~
* p" B, q5 z1 W# G# z衰退，我担心的是金融危机。”( j- U' c- F: s7 H4 ^0 R' I+ N+ o, Y
美股周五重回涨势，看上去市场风险偏好情绪恢复，但实际上投资者已经开始质疑美国资产的安全性，尤其是美债的剧烈波动，让金
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1 N$ }, N6 x( B3 `+ G融危机的恐惧再次笼罩华尔街。
/ h( b5 }/ @( Y0 h9 m( U1 |+ |( B, e+ \5 H" u) `- I9 E) U
过去一周，美国10年期国债收益率创下20多年来最大单周跳升，美股则跳水后又暴涨。表面上看，标普500指数周涨超5%，美债收益, V+ \0 a$ {7 ^ b9 H# @) e
; j- B6 X% G0 n E7 X: m8 {率回到2月水平，比特币收盘走高，似乎一切如常。
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$ H$ a: u2 ~; x1 c然而令人不安的是，本周美股、美债和美元同时下跌的现象，正是典型的新兴市场特征，而非全球最安全资产的表现。尤其本周美国
4 n: u* Z" U$ d3 A% k
5 W+ v+ g# r# n9 h长债出现如此大的波动，流动性危机似乎就在眼前，这让投资者开始质疑持有美国资产的明智性。瑞银集团首席策略师巴努·巴韦贾更. Z$ l+ D! D- S) g) I
' H, t! D. i( C0 l是表示：7 G, S6 i- _; g
1 x a3 ` Z8 c9 Q2 y# p这太可怕了。我们正在重新定义全球无风险利率，如果全球无风险利率出现波动，它将颠覆所有市场。
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历史罕见，美国资产波动性超越新兴市场和比特币' C$ f# g: }, |6 a8 a# B5 k1 o; l
0 m8 F7 s% c' L- i) x2 x/ g8 P6 I7 C5 Q特朗普最近的关税政策不仅损害了对美国经济的信心，也动摇了投资者对美国政策方向和美元资产的信任。即使以华尔街漫长的历史
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标准来看，本周都是一个惨烈的交易周，美股像是坐上了过山车，美债美元的走势更是暗示美国避险地位似乎不保了：1 }+ p. }. ?& n: d1 C+ p- U" V
, Y; u7 b! e1 F! z8 K周一，因所谓的乌龙关税消息，美股上演15分钟脉冲式巨震，纳指一度低位暴拉10%，美债跳水。3 y+ z) y1 {9 P+ w' G
& {6 c$ q! U% Q' b6 {/ B" R; q周二，不会关税豁免的消息粉碎美股反弹希望，道指盘中高位狂泻超2000点，标普抹平超4%涨幅转跌，美国国债市场则出现去杠杆式大跌。9 n/ E7 X" ^' r k% r% Y0 T
r5 w1 e( W# C, {( ^6 f周三，美国暂缓部分关税，三大美股指至少收涨近8%，标普创2008年来最大涨幅，美股交易量创下300亿股的历史新高。十年期美债
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c+ t2 B9 j, p. s6 b' [, t收益率冲高回落。
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; d" N* E* V; R- q# g' @" V6 d周四，全球投资者逃离美国资产，美国股债汇三杀，纳指跌超4%，美元两年来最大日跌，黄金新高。: |- x9 x4 {% _$ S
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周五，美联储暗示或出手，美股反弹收涨，但美债美元的跌势，警示着美国避险天堂的地位似乎不保了。4 k( x: P( J T5 e& c6 l q" J
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, [+ h( g1 h9 k- {
Loomis, Sayles & Company的投资经理Andrea DiCenso表示："美国市场是否开始表现得像新兴市场？毫无疑问，
: f1 k1 w( z) p% S' Z1 ?4 G7 o) @4 U/ @) \1 k, l& D$ y9 }0 U
是的，这正是我们所看到的。"+ ]# c. [3 e: G) U1 ]( z
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根据数据显示，美股ETF的波动性甚至超过了追踪新兴市场的基金，也一度高于比特币。这种情况除了疫情、去# }/ X8 W T2 c3 `9 | M7 c1 Q
/ `; j) z3 a5 U! a年8月危机和美联储激进加息时期外，几乎从未出现。
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" R! o. f c h+ h4 hRenaissance Capital的Neil Dutta在给客户的邮件中直言："标普500指数像加密货币一样交易，这可能不是好事。"5 n0 F" @1 T4 x; o, H6 O
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其实如果以价格行为来看的话就是提前做了超大回调，但是会不会转趋势就另外说了 |
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