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BCA Research表示，投资者开始对美国的“避险资产”地位产生怀疑，而这可能对比特币构成利好。+ f& F7 O4 N8 o
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该研究机构在最新给投资者的报告中指出，目前其整体投资组合保持防御性配置——减持股票、增持固定收益资产，并在股票投资中降低对美国
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市场的权重。原因在于，海外投资者正集体“回避”美国资产，担忧美国政策已从“贸易战”转向“资本战”。2 o+ {/ T2 U& m
& m3 z( | I* t4 L2 Z" _1 U 与此同时，BCA也首次将比特币纳入其研究覆盖范围，并将比特币的评级从“减持”上调至“中性”。今年2月，BCA曾出于市场情绪过于乐观的判断而+ O5 S4 U+ E$ d k& @, }- G- N$ i
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“短期看空”比特币。
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1 S$ n% f$ F# s3 P+ S) X" F “在全球资金撤离美国资产的背景下，比特币有望成为受益者。”报告写道，“市场情绪已经从高点大幅回落。今年以来，活跃交易的比特币在整体已- V( i. d/ h1 U# U
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实现市值中的占比急剧下降。”
$ j7 [& ~, ]& U! y" a& z
; \; J" \, f" ? 报告还指出，比特币作为“数字黄金”，正越来越像实物黄金那样表现，在美国资产大规模抛售期间依旧保持坚挺。5 P7 O# l/ Q: E& e9 s# u6 M; }4 q$ k
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根据Coin Metrics的数据，自4月3日——即特朗普总统宣布初始关税政策的第二天起——比特币已上涨约12%。同期，现货黄金上涨了8%，
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! q5 L3 I* Y: p( J而纳斯达克综合指数几乎持平。
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BCA在报告中进一步指出：“虽然美国经济增长目前仍表现坚挺，但关税政策的模糊性，已导致企业资本支出意愿大幅下滑。”此外，“激烈的: a$ {% r$ K2 Z! d q( r
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利率波动也再度打击了住宅房地产市场。”( i% B$ G$ L7 o O( p
$ T/ g, X \ y# N! t- C3 \ “尽管特朗普ZF在某些强硬言论上有所收敛，但企业仍迫切需要明确的政策信号，才能恢复投资。”报告写道，“若无法及时提供清晰政策，
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1 @5 F3 W j2 s+ [% p- l将可能引发更为严重的经济衰退。”
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