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[虚拟币交流]
2.67 的比特币价格温度将如何影响 BTC 的未来?(转)
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比特币价格温度升至2.64点,接近过热区域。
" n. T8 |+ U( T尽管BPT上涨,但比特币在回调前仍有较大的上涨空间。1 F3 G' O! c0 T; n+ s G7 |
过去一个月里,比特币[BTC]已飙升 17.94%,从 8.3 万美元的低点上涨至 11.1 万美元。尽管近期涨势令人欣喜,但一些利益相关者对潜在的过热现象表示担忧。9 z$ a& ]7 |7 Z3 [2 M3 H
9 B! M" H; L- }' n& v) ^其中一位是 CryptoQuant 分析师阿克塞尔·阿德勒他曾警告称,比特币正接近过热区域。- v# g# ~" S# U' Y8 O
6 x2 _% u, e! R7 QAdler 在分析中观察到,比特币的价格温度已升至 2.67 点,这表明这枚王者币正接近潜在的过热区域。他补充道:* h: {, e+ [, g2 H
6 y1 T$ E7 \- k$ I# l/ J7 U“本周期的前两个峰值是 BPT 达到 2.75 和 3.57。”& n. ?5 v: a2 `9 \- r
2 x2 }0 i& _* A+ @平均而言,如果 BPT 达到 3.14,BTC 温度就已进入过热区域。目前,市场距离完全过热区域仍有 0.47 个点。$ x5 z6 l" i: e% \! s& [) j* b
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因此,BTC 尚未达到之前的最高水平,在达到过热水平之前仍有一定的上涨空间。
F9 S, p: @# [; O1 ?+ W: z/ x" P1 [% ? f
BTC 图表暗示了什么
' m5 D$ p, h) W, K x/ f9 B虽然上述分析提供了乐观的前景,但必须再三核实并确定其他图表所表明的内容。. j! d7 c+ c" a5 W' ]: u6 R
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首先,看看比特币的MVRV,截至发稿时约为2.4。过去一个月,它一直在2.13和2.41左右徘徊。这些水平通常与健康的市场相关。
9 o d5 W0 J8 r! p! H6 k6 R( }4 m2 S
4 P% E/ p: p# w K1 Z" W从历史上看,当 MVRV 超过 3.0 时,比特币就进入过热阶段,长期持有者开始抛售。目前 MVRV 仍低于 2.5 和 3.0,表明 BTC 仍有上涨空间。2 d6 t6 o7 f; R8 b4 O
5 I! h4 P' B# o2 a& Z; ]6 @' E比特币的NUPL进一步证实了这一点。截至本文撰写时,NUPL处于58%或0.58,这是一个信念/否定区间。因此,由于NUPL尚未达到0.75,BTC尚未过热。- ^2 s8 K+ Y6 n, w5 g! i$ j/ q- w
3 P' N" D) L+ W% k! x1 a当 NUPL 进入极度兴奋区时,就会导致获利回吐,因为持有者开始担心潜在的调整。
: c/ n/ c' c. {, U$ R( U/ T; G4 @ A) v- n3 X- |
最后,从比特币的 Pi 周期顶部来看,BTC 远未过热。值得注意的是,当 111 日移动平均线 (SMA) 突破 2 倍 350 日移动平均线时,BTC 便进入过热区域。这种情况在过去四年中从未发生过。
0 _2 N& B* m- p& {7 h; ?8 @6 [# ^9 l( v9 O
最后一次交叉记录于 2021 年。
5 w5 r3 j5 B0 q
1 w) I" p+ O: W截至发稿时,350 x2 SMA 位于 16 万美元左右,而 111 DSMA 位于 9.1 万美元。因此,在两条线交汇之前,仍有进一步上涨的空间。
" u/ F& r M5 Q9 O6 i% b& c* j K% }
简而言之,尽管比特币的价格已飙升至接近过热的水平,但仍有上涨空间。此外,其他市场指标也表明,BTC 可能会继续上涨。
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如果当前的上涨趋势持续下去,BTC 价格可能触及 12 万美元。然而,如果部分持有者转向获利了结,BTC 价格可能回落至 10.6 万美元。
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