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[虚拟币交流]
比特币市场的下一步走势——关注这些矿工信号寻找线索(转)
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比特币市场感觉处于强势与犹豫之间。8 O- u; R1 n) g- D$ ^2 ?
矿业公司刚刚创下了减半后最好的一个月业绩,5 月份收入达 15.2 亿美元。: l' v7 D5 n1 }$ ^
这 比特币[BTC]市场感觉像是陷入了困境。
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价格虽然强劲,但势头却令人信服。感觉比特币只需一次波动,就可能抹去5月份的所有涨幅,跌回六位数以下。0 T. [5 {& D0 G: O
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风险如此之大,谨慎行事似乎是最明智的做法。但与更广泛的比特币市场不同,有一个行业利润丰厚——矿工。他们的生产成本远低于比特币当前价格,这为他们带来了巨额利润。
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4 \0 f; a8 s* F从历史上看,矿业股在面临压力时总是能迅速锁定收益。那么,在市场观望的同时,我们是否应该更加密切地关注矿业股?
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* [1 { _$ o4 I3 W4 U: _& A9 d减半后的挖矿经济
7 g3 U2 ?% n j! N& Y" y, ?6 |2024 年 4 月减半之后,矿工的奖励一夜之间从 6.25 BTC 降至 3.125 BTC,这给他们带来了沉重打击。8 Y3 M _, p V0 m9 ]" F
- _* A% a7 t- U7 l$ L& b问题是,虽然奖励每四年减半,但挖矿成本却并没有降低。你消耗的电力和支付的电费都一样,但每个区块的收益却只有一半。
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# G, g D+ X7 @9 L- v; T自然,这导致平均采矿成本飙升。
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) I6 ~% O% V+ @% l5 C; f2 `到4月底,比特币价格飙升至每BTC约9万美元,而其价格却顽固地徘徊在6万美元附近。这种不匹配导致了比特币市场陷入了横盘整理的恶性循环,市场陷入了窄幅震荡。
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! ]6 y7 o- G7 l/ \. F' L为什么?因为减半后发生的事情是典型的矿工策略:储备枯竭,比特币市场陷入低迷,矿工收入开始减少。- F# F: r$ o" G
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换句话说,不断增加的压力迫使矿工在其利润率(BTC 的现货价格 - 生产成本)进一步受到挤压之前退出,加速全面矿工投降阶段。
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# G6 l5 X& _4 s% T7 h6 b* v/ ?6 t比特币市场陷入困境,矿工竞相前进
9 ? Z6 N2 [0 ?距离第四次减半还有一年,开采单个比特币的平均成本仍然徘徊在 91,105 美元左右,而比特币市场一直横盘整理,BTC 徘徊在 10.3 万美元至 10.5 万美元之间。; t0 D3 n+ d; D/ a5 @
& u9 `' n& L6 m+ l+ T' C确实,比特币5月份的投资回报率高达11.12%,甚至创下了历史新高。这反过来又推动了比特币市场进入新一轮获利回吐的浪潮。$ e; P2 d/ w+ d0 F" @+ O
3 p5 ?; y _( ~6 p" C9 B4 r但如果我们继续计分的话,矿工可能已经获得了更大份额。- z* E) W' A9 a+ P t' ~
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2025 年 5 月是自 2024 年 4 月减半以来表现最好的月份。
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) h! C7 C+ D5 z7 C8 y; y0 g% K据 The Block 报道,矿工获得了高达 15.2 亿美元的收入,其中 2000 万美元仅来自链上费用。+ p* i) s3 j# ^7 l: d0 L
7 o" e# T3 \) ]" n$ E话虽如此,早期预警信号正在出现。矿工持仓指数(MPI)已回升至零以上,暗示一些矿工可能已经将货币转移到交易所。
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从历史上看,大量资金流入往往会抢在投降事件发生之前,尤其是当现货价格接近平均生产成本时。+ a4 d5 y1 r$ ?" G0 j
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这使得比特币处于压力区。如果比特币跌破当前区间,一些矿工趁利润丰厚之际套现或许是明智之举。9 F( z( r' S) M6 ]: Z: i; z
* X3 h4 h( t# W$ p9 G7 V' F4 q这会不会成为比特币市场下一个波动的导火索?这绝对是值得关注的关键触发因素之一。
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这样可以找到下一步如何办的线索?
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