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[lastpost] => 2753199 《稳定币条例》生效在即,街边“找换店”还能兑换加密货币吗?(转) 1753943012 一切恭敬
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[虚拟币交流]
比特币市场的下一步走势——关注这些矿工信号寻找线索(转)
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比特币市场感觉处于强势与犹豫之间。
$ v' K7 Q" q W) L( k/ B9 {矿业公司刚刚创下了减半后最好的一个月业绩,5 月份收入达 15.2 亿美元。5 s% i: M4 ? A& r/ M+ H
这 比特币[BTC]市场感觉像是陷入了困境。
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+ c) q% r1 L) s$ f+ f$ Q, h价格虽然强劲,但势头却令人信服。感觉比特币只需一次波动,就可能抹去5月份的所有涨幅,跌回六位数以下。8 o/ s$ x7 [) u/ W0 j P. N' s+ j7 `
/ Y1 }& P& P9 S0 d" u) K$ l% g风险如此之大,谨慎行事似乎是最明智的做法。但与更广泛的比特币市场不同,有一个行业利润丰厚——矿工。他们的生产成本远低于比特币当前价格,这为他们带来了巨额利润。3 V0 X4 p$ d/ w- G8 `" F
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从历史上看,矿业股在面临压力时总是能迅速锁定收益。那么,在市场观望的同时,我们是否应该更加密切地关注矿业股?. v, o' B$ S/ }" O+ H p5 T5 b
9 L$ G) k; l" g& E8 l s: U减半后的挖矿经济! x2 c4 `3 i8 }7 g/ D" A
2024 年 4 月减半之后,矿工的奖励一夜之间从 6.25 BTC 降至 3.125 BTC,这给他们带来了沉重打击。: P% H f: }# W: {
0 {# f2 P; N$ d3 y6 t5 a, e' x) R问题是,虽然奖励每四年减半,但挖矿成本却并没有降低。你消耗的电力和支付的电费都一样,但每个区块的收益却只有一半。
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自然,这导致平均采矿成本飙升。
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到4月底,比特币价格飙升至每BTC约9万美元,而其价格却顽固地徘徊在6万美元附近。这种不匹配导致了比特币市场陷入了横盘整理的恶性循环,市场陷入了窄幅震荡。
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为什么?因为减半后发生的事情是典型的矿工策略:储备枯竭,比特币市场陷入低迷,矿工收入开始减少。
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+ m1 J+ _ U$ v, m# n; l换句话说,不断增加的压力迫使矿工在其利润率(BTC 的现货价格 - 生产成本)进一步受到挤压之前退出,加速全面矿工投降阶段。
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2 `. j1 f: T! [0 Y- E. d* m1 F比特币市场陷入困境,矿工竞相前进' n7 b6 }! \8 `$ r
距离第四次减半还有一年,开采单个比特币的平均成本仍然徘徊在 91,105 美元左右,而比特币市场一直横盘整理,BTC 徘徊在 10.3 万美元至 10.5 万美元之间。
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5 D, Y6 c N: r6 \( J确实,比特币5月份的投资回报率高达11.12%,甚至创下了历史新高。这反过来又推动了比特币市场进入新一轮获利回吐的浪潮。/ B6 c" k$ I* p5 Z; Y) O
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但如果我们继续计分的话,矿工可能已经获得了更大份额。
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, x& T3 J4 [2 d& W0 p; s2025 年 5 月是自 2024 年 4 月减半以来表现最好的月份。3 g9 e5 I6 o; z! d" Y- k4 g
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据 The Block 报道,矿工获得了高达 15.2 亿美元的收入,其中 2000 万美元仅来自链上费用。! l5 a, d: E- i) }" x) \- Y
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话虽如此,早期预警信号正在出现。矿工持仓指数(MPI)已回升至零以上,暗示一些矿工可能已经将货币转移到交易所。; [4 E2 N: P0 E8 f) Z
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从历史上看,大量资金流入往往会抢在投降事件发生之前,尤其是当现货价格接近平均生产成本时。4 _# m- y9 q/ y/ U1 n
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这使得比特币处于压力区。如果比特币跌破当前区间,一些矿工趁利润丰厚之际套现或许是明智之举。" N) z5 m8 o- y" ^
- A0 d m/ k( r# W2 x3 m% z这会不会成为比特币市场下一个波动的导火索?这绝对是值得关注的关键触发因素之一。. a4 G, ~; I6 G8 K' B# b; q
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这样可以找到下一步如何办的线索?
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