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[lastpost] => 2818931 一位幸运的比特币矿工以1/28000的每日概率赢得了21万美元的区块奖励。（转） 1775493840 垂钓园
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比特币面临长期持有者的缓慢抛售，投资者逐步获利，这表明市场周期已趋于成熟和稳定。
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8 e) _% m" \& e8 A7 @" a2 R0 Z$ B分析人士表示，比特币的抛售压力来自谨慎的长期持有者，而不是恐慌性抛售者，这表明市场趋势更加成熟。/ ~- O( g( m; o
' u. u7 T( \! [5 Z" j- _& d尽管交易所交易产品、企业和机构投资者都表现出强劲的买盘兴趣，但比特币近期维持上涨势头的艰难仍在持续。在X上分享的一份详细分析中，克里斯·库珀特许金融分析师（CFA）解释说，目前的抛售压力主要来自长期持有者，也就是所谓的“HODLers”，他们在多年积累后正在慢慢获利了结。7 z0 r# a4 X) @ W" B
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链上数据显示，这种抛售并非恐慌性抛售，而是行为的渐进和可控转变，反映了更加成熟的市场动态。/ P5 q& b3 p9 C3 g( ^& S, j
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长期持有者正在缓慢获利了结9 s8 s6 O" ~( v8 |# ?
库珀强调了一个特定的链上指标的重要性：比特币一年以上未活跃交易的百分比。历史上，该指标在熊市期间会上升，因为投资者会持有比特币；而在牛市期间，由于持有者在价格上涨时抛售，该指标会急剧下降。然而，这一次的趋势更为平缓。数据显示，该指标并未出现急剧下降，而是呈现出缓慢而持续的下降趋势，即便在……比特币的价格略有上涨。
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这一趋势表明，长期持有者正在逐步实现利润，而不是一次性抛售。库珀认为，这种行为与目前横盘整理的市场状况相符，投资者行事谨慎，等待更明确的信号后再进行大举操作。
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* v* X: L& P; o; L' n* P' Q投资者疲劳和年末调整
# e4 c& h m) w! E4 v) B3 v9 a. \库伊珀认为，部分销售放缓的原因是投资者疲劳。比特币近期的表现低于预期。黄金和标普500指数双双下跌，令投资者失望，他们原本预期在比特币四年周期的牛市阶段能获得更强劲的回报。许多人曾预期10月和11月会出现一波上涨行情，这两个月通常是比特币的季节性上涨行情，但这一波行情并未出现。' ~ j; u2 G: `& n
2 w% e( b% o: L( i1 N6 I4 p) Z( \0 L另请阅读：& E& l6 ] D8 G3 Z5 y0 ]' G
比特币价格本周会跌破 10 万美元吗？3 G% q! E# r' m
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- ?9 m" C. \* { L/ d% ]! J4 e$ Q. p因此，一些长期持仓者已开始锁定利润，并在年底前调整仓位，这很可能是为了税务筹划和投资组合再平衡。这种失望情绪与务实决策相结合，导致了持续的抛售压力，但并未出现恐慌性抛售，因为市场参与者比以往周期更加谨慎地管理风险。" b- r5 i: w) j; o* u
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更成熟的市场周期8 ?0 _) k' o/ e! g
在库伊珀的分析基础上，胡里奥·莫雷诺CryptoQuant 研究主管提供的数据支持了这一观点，数据显示，比特币一年非活跃供应量（衡量长期持有者活跃度的指标）在 2021 年和当前的 2024-2025 年周期中仅下降了 10 个百分点，而 2017-2018 年期间的降幅则高达 20 个百分点。* |2 Y1 ~8 p; \2 O
* y+ Y' u D. I8 K4 ]4 t莫雷诺的研究结果证实，本轮抛售是可控且有序的，反映出投资者群体经验更加丰富，比特币市场也日趋成熟。尽管价格走势较为平缓，但两位分析师一致认为比特币的基本面依然强劲，一旦卖方力量耗尽，就可能为下一轮显著的价格反弹铺平道路。
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长期持有者逐步抛售比特币，市场趋于成熟和稳定，潜在买入机会呼之欲出 |
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