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[版主推荐]
居安思危难,饱腹念饥粮.收米看胜率,输钱观风向.来自众鑫收米98块背后的深度思考!
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5月无战事，今天下午800本金，众鑫走起！
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! T" e) _ v# ] y% N 繁琐的无关过程免去，直奔杀庄现场，干活！这次没有选择EA，这里好像可以下注10块，本金不大，在EA怕吼不住！没有过多的等待，因为等待也等不出高胜率，浪费时间而已。这个台子刚刚开了1手，是庄。庄20吧，800本儿，感觉这已经打的不小了。: g8 c4 A" p' N- M" y4 F
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5 i$ A5 z+ O: x' G& E/ n. e 整个过程是21手，不计和局，胜11手，负10手，净胜1手，得到98块。) _2 K ^: x9 V2 }6 ^% y5 D
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- e3 d1 r- n7 H2 | 上面都是废话，思考才是要进入的重点。净胜1手，收米98块，这比较平推100的收入要高很多了，平推在庄家位是要抽水的，这个大家都懂。问题是我最大注码只打到100，何以与平推100就等效了呢？答案只有一个，那就是输小赢大。从下表可以看出，资金一共出现过2次高峰，第1次是在净胜3手时达到901，第二次是在净胜1手时达到904，哪个含金量更高？不言而喻，当然是第2次了。胜率在均值位置停留过2次，第1次时资金是826，盈利20；第2次是866，盈利60.那么问题来了，何以胜率不变而资金升高？答案只有一个，输小赢大。! i- I1 G1 p- Y, _
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| 序号 | 输赢 | 净胜 | 资金 | 备 注 | 11 | -26 | -1 | 800 | | | 1 | 19 | 1 | 825 | | 12 | -30 | -2 | 770 | | | 2 | 38 | 2 | 863 | | 13 | 19 | -1 | 789 | | | 3 | 38 | 3 | 901 | 第1次资金高峰+3手 | 14 | -40 | -2 | 749 | | | 4 | -20 | 2 | 881 | | 15 | -49 | -3 | 700 | | | 5 | 19 | 3 | 900 | | 16 | -100 | -4 | 600 | | | 6 | -40 | 2 | 860 | | 17 | 95 | -3 | 695 | | | 7 | -60 | 1 | 800 | | 18 | 100 | -2 | 795 | | | 8 | 57 | 2 | 857 | | 19 | 38 | -1 | 833 | | | 9 | -11 | 1 | 846 | | 20 | 33 | 0 | 866 | 第2次胜率持平+60 | | 10 | -20 | 0 | 826 | 第1次胜率持平+20 | 21 | 38 | 1 | 904 | 第2次资金高峰+1手 |
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那有华友要问了，你究竟想说什么呢？以下是我今天最想说的。当你的资金增长时，你得想想为什么增长了？是高胜率下的结果，还是胜率不占优的结果？如果是前者，如第1次资金高峰时，DC输掉3手胜率给我，我得到95块，要不要骄傲啊？我觉得就没啥要得瑟的，如果在胜率还回去3手的时候，你没有办法保住部分盈利的话。当然了，赢了总归是赢了，盲目开心下也未尝不可。可我还是要泼点冷水，目前的资金是安全的，但一定要充分考虑到归还胜率的过程。你多拿了3手胜率，你必须还回去！这个根本由不得你！可你打算给多大点资金回去呢？这个就由我了！！！这是“居安思危难，饱腹念饥粮”的真正意思！
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为什么要专门搞个胜率持平的考察呢？大家知道，百家樂长期就是个50%胜率，我们即使偶尔有高胜率，那也只是短期的、暂时的、部分的，只有50%才是长期的！50%的胜率，DC没占到便宜，我也没有，但我在这时要拿到利润，牛不牛？神奇不神奇？好好想想，问题就在这里。我不羡慕谁谁哎呀玛呀路看的好准啊感觉好好啊今天一路赢啊下啥出啥呀打轨开轨囝，那就是个屁！什么叫过眼云烟，什么叫迷人假象？不过如此。这是“收米看胜率,输钱观风向”的完美诠释。: U* @" Z( n+ N6 H" Q
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我今天下午欠众鑫1手胜率，我记得，概率更记得。我拿走了98块，我记得，众鑫未必记得。我已经准备好了，下次承认输1手回去，但我一定不会在还胜率的时候还98块钱！任何一场战斗都是暂时的，永远没有终点，记得我今天的战斗情形，收工！' l' L D3 A; ^+ T+ l
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当然，我不会忘记带上我的98块利润奔跑！
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这篇帖子含金量比较高，懂的已经懂了，不懂的依然不明觉里，不要争吵就好！！
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谢谢九哥了！可并不是每个人都会这么评价的，有人可能就看到了一个吹水贴哈哈。。。。 |
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二哥好啊，什么精华哥啊，我到现在连一篇精华都没得呢 |
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众鑫娱乐－佳琪 发表于 2018-5-3 23:31
! q. J" Y" x: t, W% |9 M! l. @% | E恭喜绝尘哥哥收米哦~您是才华+实力+好运集于一身哟~8 \0 N6 j, e; L% A* v! w5 @
" |( v/ M' K; S! @# y' n5 m' _要多多发帖与大家分享关于菠菜的经验哟~相 ...
: T- ?8 E+ U7 [, `哎呀，怎么佳琪妹子什么时候跑我房里来了啊，欢迎欢迎啊 |
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7 x! z" e( b, U, ~1 o! J谢谢了哦。话说你这ID很有味道啊 |
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雪妹子这么一叫我腿都软了…… |
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$ i k9 G |( {0 N9 E* I& _# P4 l1 P都酥了还怎么杀庄啊，大脑进入空白状态了，感觉悬空了…… |
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