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首先，如果3AC（三箭资本）崩塌，影响是极其庞大的，因为他们从每个知名、资金雄厚的贷方处都贷了款。 想想 BlockFi、Genesis、Nexo、Celsius，预计每个贷方都会承受来自 3AC 的冲击。
+ J' D$ m: a; S {" G0 M3AC的资产，最后一个公开资产数字被标记为180亿美元，我强烈怀疑他们当时的真实资产净值要低得多，有传言说虽然他们已经在资产上进行了处置，但在 Deribit 仍然有质押。 [" u6 F$ _: f \' A# X: `" a
但我们还是用180亿来计算，假设其中90亿是 VC 组合的公允价值，90亿是流动资金。
) i, ?9 Y# V. g! ^假设所有这些资产都是最安全的BTC（是的，我知道他们有山寨币，但死得很惨）从11月21日到现在，他们的流动资金将减少近70%。
# Y f, V: S' N" |7 p; w# J- d他们的流动资金最多只值27亿，如果你加上山寨币的风险，现实中他们的流动资金将减少到10亿或更少。这与传言报道的一致，即他们无法满足他们的保证金要求。
: D. c: k" p" \/ d无法满足追加保证金是任何对冲基金的丧钟。无论是加密货币还是传统基金，有报道称，他们试图用 Starkware 股权作为抵押品。 + k* Y* |4 P" x/ A- V! b
3AC 是全球贷款的最大客户之一，他们的倒闭会将经济风险转移给他们的贷方。 贷方将承担他们所欠金额与清算抵押品之间的差额。
; l$ |- U) v; G+ R4 v. A这些贷方准备不足，他们经营着 100亿-200 亿美元的资产负债表，拥有约 5% 的股权缓冲（指资产高于负债的价值边际），这意味着违约将导致严重的股权侵蚀。 , a3 r8 E# d: l9 {) R$ T
不是所有的贷款方都是一样的。Celsius是最糟糕的，它已经崩溃了。Nexo我不知道，BlockFi也很糟糕， Genesis 可能是他们之中表现得最好的。 , }6 o/ T: W- H6 B9 T4 w8 b
这意味着，贷款人将通过从系统中撤回信贷来保护自己。所有贷款人可能有大约500亿（估计）的贷款......我预计将有300-400亿的信贷被摧毁，即贷款被收回，信贷被缩减。 - U; x0 d4 k* ?; E
当信贷离开系统时，整体上的钱就更少了，同样数量的资产，钱少了，资产就会价格下降。
* u9 K2 C& X) a. C& G1 u# Z更进一步，当信贷被取消时，每一个参与者的整体资产负债表都会缩减，因为风险资产被标记下来，做市商提供流动性的能力降低。
7 t9 q- I8 F- H, u. r: g( _买入价和卖出价差扩大，对于基金来说--随着波动性的增加，他们需要去杠杆化他们的风险资产以维持相同的风险值。另外，LP 会被UST和现在的Celsius吓到吗？最好为赎回做准备，提前卖出。 # B, H" J! G$ L# R
从本质上讲，主要基金和主要贷款人的崩溃将使系统中的整体信贷萎缩，并导致持续的去杠杆化。到目前为止，我们已经进行了有序的清算，但仍有更多人需要去杠杆。 5 D/ m0 `9 g- o$ R2 H
价格多少才是合理的，说实话，我不知道。我们可能需要赌场的老板们出面，毕竟，如果你的客户都死了，你就需要等待更多的客户到来，你的生意才会好起来。 ( b: H, M3 z% P5 \( m$ B: r( v R
然而，如果没有人介入。我们可能会看到比特币价格低于1万。毕竟，我们已经经历了一次上涨（量化宽松等），现在我们有了所有金融资产重大去杠杆化的完美风暴（加息、QT、通胀）。 : Q* p& M7 w# @; c5 ?
来源：金色财经 |
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