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[lastpost] => 2691782 比特币目前这个价格 我挺纠结的 1731796978 hangaibing
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最近是每周写一篇，比较巧合的是都是在我写的那一天上涨，正好应景，提醒大家仅仅是反弹，很快就会回落下去，趋势向下的时候只能空，放弃多。今天也不例外，比特币和以太坊都在快速上涨，一度冲过2w大关和1100大关，很多人幻想着是不是牛回来了，再给你们泼一瓢冷水吧，18000下方和800下方依旧有很大空间等着我们，甚至不排除会进一步扩大到16000和600的位置，按照上篇文章说的四次腰斩，那么以太坊的极限位置在300美元附近，虽然我不太赞同这种具体数字，但历史总有着很强的参考意义。
8 y3 A# ]7 x# }- Q& a那为什么今天会反弹，因为跌太多了总有反弹的时候，不是今天也会是明天，总不可能无限期的跌吧，一定要找原因的话我看到的情况是周末链上活跃度有所下降，这样反弹也没有耗费多大的资金量，跌下去的时候大户就能跑的顺利一点。涨跌由资金控制，资金由大户掌握。
8 o" W# T, N8 z. g1 G6 o: F先来看下比特币的抛压情况，可能是周末的原因，抛压在减少，我估计短期内抛压维持在一个低水平应该是大概率事件，这就给了超短一些放飞的空间，我认为超短的反弹还没有结束，摸高到2.1w或是2.2w都是可能的，但也仅仅是反弹，长期入场动作还是看1.8w下方的情况。目前巨鲸和超级巨鲸都是少量减持状态，并且矿工减持动作会越来越大，还需要等它们继续加大减持力度后的市场情况。
; e- M! R# ~6 p说到矿工的情况，现在已经跌破很多矿场的关机价了，中小型矿场都已经纷纷在关停了，只有大型的矿场才能继续维持，运营成本优势这个时候就显现出来了，同时竞争的减小有利于产出更多的比特币。需要说明的是比特币关机价并不等于抄底价，但是我认为关机价买入比囤币指标买入强太多了，现在的价格和上周0.45的囤币价来说已经有百分之二十的价差了。 ' c m! v- {% G6 r9 h+ O
关于以太坊，以太坊清算的风险已经释放很多了，我看到巨鲸和超级巨鲸开始进场增持了，但是额度不大，就目前的走势来看，还不具备大幅反弹的条件，因为不确定的情况下清算大概率还会发生，所以三位数的以太坊还会出现一段时间，不用着急。 , X( x$ s4 |" [; l/ I- |, g' ]& w
再来说下山寨情况，我观察到很多山寨走势都非常漂亮，完美底部结构，给人有跑步进场的错觉，但这种走势都是骗人的，一是成交量太低没有参考性，二是目前市场上有太多的大户资金在用山寨借稳定币套利，下跌后不会去管这笔交易了。巨鲸退出山寨币和这个办法类似，就是将自己持有的山寨币进行抵押，借出一大笔稳定币，到手后不偿还稳定币，即使下跌，也只清算抵押的山寨币，既避免了主动卖出引发市场恐慌，又避免了山寨下跌带来的风险。所以山寨现在还是很不稳定，属于不能碰的时间点。
* _( A: t! z- q; k对后市中短期不看好的主要原因还是趋势很坏，下跌过程中需要靠非常强大的资金量扭转颓势，目前完全看不到这个迹象，资金非常的弱势，同时市场中信心已经被磨灭的差不多了，大户和机构都已经动摇了，不停的被清算，被卖出，同时，盘整的时间也不够，最少还需要三到五个月看情况分析。 + M" b- J K/ |3 k
目前的位置确实让人心动，心动归心动，但是仍然不能掉以轻心，可以用现货试错，不能加杠杆，因为筹码没有了，属于你的游戏也就结束了。
l/ }6 x d# n9 }- R来源：金色财经 |
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