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第三节 案例分析
& X# b( b1 g7 R+ K g% @, c 例1:里昂 3-0 梅斯 (法联杯)
: W' P. d% z. k8 V 初赔:1.40 3.70 7.00 支持一球0.80 实际初盘:0.80一球 1.054 F* Q& Z" `+ c9 r
中赔:1.44 3.75 6.25 支持一球0.875 实际中盘:0.82 一球 1.15
% |9 s5 B' Z4 L, l. m1 U 终赔:1.46 3.75 7.70 支持一球0.925 实际终盘:0.75 一球 1.15- u( t1 p6 I' g* K3 {, |7 b- U+ ?
分析:可能造热方为主队上盘。初盘水位与初赔吻合,上盘未出现同向受热。中盘水位略低于折合水位,下盘赔付较高。高峰期水位与中盘水位一致,缺少明显变化。临场降水为超低水,上盘赔付较于折合水位偏低。初设造热方未出现应有热度,而是一直降低赔付,最终的顺利打出。
1 S# X3 r) X+ o* M1 ~' X: ? " e" C' j( @' e5 b* ]9 y/ l
例2:尤文图斯3-0 拿波里
; I1 M. W- ~- H# c) }* ? 初赔:1.90 3.10 3.65 支持半球0.90 实际初盘:0.95 半球 0.90
T- t, t' N" Q 中赔:2.05 3.15 3.60 支持半球1.05 实际中盘:1.10 半球 0.80
0 O3 u& ]; Y- z }) H5 N 终赔:1.95 3.15 4.00 支持半球0.95 实际终盘:1.00 半球 0.90# p1 n% s6 ^; w- f% J! F! D
分析:主队近况低迷,客队近期状态较好,排名差距不大,客队下盘存在被造热可能。初盘上盘水位高于折合水位,下盘被造热。中盘阶段上盘水位高于折合水位,下盘降水,下盘造热成功。终盘阶段上盘水位下调,略高于折合水位,下盘升水幅度较大盘口贴水较高,造热方赔付较高,最终上盘打出。
8 p5 m; y$ P- c h " {6 o& v3 `$ ^ t' T1 j% L2 [: A8 h
例3:桑坦德0-0 艾科坎(国王杯)
& G/ x- j) w# G4 |. V& n 初赔:1.50 3.60 5.30 支持一球1.00 实际初盘:1.00 一球 0.85
1 _1 B5 m: ?* D: j# t5 o. h 中赔:1.50 3.70 6.90 支持一球1.00 实际中盘:0.90 一球 1.00
" Z# C% q$ G% h% f; @ s 终赔:1.55 3.50 6.50 支持一球1.10 实际终盘:1.13 一球 0.77$ W- C1 M* f) c' q7 {/ b
分析:可能造热方向为主队上盘,初赔阶段盘赔水位一致,上下盘都不
- O* X1 x1 }8 x0 K0 ~ 热,但上盘贴水较高。中盘阶段上盘降水,存在造热上盘可能;临场阶段上盘升水为超高水,贴水较高,上盘不出。 q. @: D' y$ b0 {6 _3 L3 y9 j
, z6 @- h0 y, q1 }, o N( f8 @- D9 H# } 例4:奥沙辛拿1-0 海格拉斯(国王杯)
. }/ Y0 l& o7 H 初赔:1.65 3.40 4.50 支持半一9.75 实际初盘:0.70半球1.15
7 X- h4 ^: S6 v& c( C1 @ 中赔:1.90 3.30 3.90 支持半球0.90 实际中盘:0.96 半球0.94- L a% E2 B- S' d3 M) ^
终赔:2.05 3.30 3.40 支持半球1.05 实际终盘:1.10 半球 0.80 p$ c- T1 p5 T( Z7 g
注:海格拉斯=靴格拉斯# \" e8 T1 R4 Z1 [+ w0 u/ E* b3 \
分析:受热可能方为客队下盘,初盘上盘盘口低于折合盘口给超低水,上盘反成被造热方;中盘阶段上盘升水,上盘水位高于折合水位,上盘造热失败;终盘阶段上盘继续升水,下盘大热。最终上盘打出。9 r3 u! y6 @5 z, B+ k
# M6 I' ` ]9 Z, ^: y8 z% { 例5、AEK雅典1-1泰利普里斯(希腊超)! a1 O4 o6 C+ q' C0 `! c' P
易胜初赔:1.90 3.00 3.65 支持半球中低水
( L2 I: H5 C: O. k% m0 T+ P 实际初盘:0.65 平/半 1.201 g' D" v( f B3 v/ m0 A a* P
易胜终赔:2.10 3.20 3.40 支持平/半低
8 l& B% o0 D5 `- h2 O) s( m 实际终盘:0.82 平/半 1.08. @+ T. v6 {- U: _, [+ s
注:泰利普里斯=卓普利斯
" L$ A( Y4 ?$ ^* |3 r 分析:受热可能方向主队上盘,初赔盘口开小,给超低水,上盘受热。终赔支持平/半低水,上盘升水后盘赔比较一致,但是在造热方的赔付被提高,主队盘口较为便宜,下盘水位下调。最终上盘受热不出。
7 W$ G# S- M; D( Z! X+ T ( k* D& S! L" Z8 _3 \2 e6 f
例6:帕纳辛奈科斯2-1佩亚列高斯(希腊超): F6 {2 G& F" k+ @/ B. E
易胜初赔:1.15 6.00 10.00 支持两球半超低水% H2 b& P9 R8 c2 D% Z/ j4 D
实际初盘:0.85 两球 1.00* F B! z. |) [* Q4 ]
易胜终赔:1.11 8.00 12.00 支持三球以上. u8 A2 ?! Y9 {# }% _
实际终盘:0.75 两球 1.10
g H' S8 o4 q0 B8 h: i4 n9 y 注:帕纳辛奈科斯=彭拿典奈高斯* d' `8 s9 d: }" ]* Z
佩列亚高斯=派里高斯+ \3 H1 Y( x7 n8 N0 `
分析:受热可能上盘主队,初盘盘口开小,水位虽为较低方,但是高于正常折合水位,上盘为受热方。临场继续降水,上盘造热成功型。最终上盘赢球输盘。 |
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所有的复盘,都是在知道结果的前提下进行的,总能找到一个理由或者观点才佐证这个赛果,任何看盘方法都有缺陷性,赌,心态第一,技术第二,运气第三,缺一不可 |
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