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[虚拟币交流]
比特币暴涨只等现货ETF通过？彭博：三大利好正在发酵（转载）
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比特币ETF何时能够获得批准的时程备受市场关注，根据彭博社的统计，美国证券交易$ n+ g4 Y( D: r! M2 x
委员会(SEC)需要在9月1日之前针对Bitwise比特币ETP信托基金做出决定，但是SEC同样可以先选择延迟，而来自
& U- N0 r, u- P6 R+ Z8 k& oBlackRock、VanEck、WisdomTree和Invesco的申请决定也在一天之后展开。
! H7 B; L9 K. ?通常来说，当比特币现货ETF在《联邦公报》上发布后便会进入公开评论期，SEC通常会在45天内作出初步决定，+ |/ q9 T5 z! |9 g" s+ ]
批准或拒绝该申请，届时若未做出裁决则再延45天，第二次仍未有结果则再延90天，最久必须在公开评论期开始
% t% X! u. M7 [" x; r后240天做出裁决。5 I& _: r. L( l" S
分析师：预料之内会被推迟/ s% Q" z# i; W, G {& A" A
彭博ETF分析师James Seyffart，曾经预测灰度GBTC转现货ETF的判决最早可能在8月15日出炉，如今这个预测也- T6 o7 m i Q, z. c: O
变为「理论上的日期」，目前并没有传出任何更新，他表示「这些决定都会被延迟是预料之内」，而据灰度官方' J3 t+ _0 y3 w! f8 R
在7月底的发文，他们则是预测法院可能在今年秋季作出判决。专注于数字资产的机构平台FRNT Financial的执行
q1 n$ x/ N% F& D) t长Stephane Ouellette则在彭博社采访时表示：ETF申请的基本情况是，管理机构将继续使用多年来的所有权力) S& _& I& m! b
来推迟决定，即使这些产品最终获得批准，在第一次获得批准的情况下，看到它们获得批准还是会非常令人惊
$ c7 g% e8 }5 X: e) I* N讶。
: m. V* q, W2 ^- ]3 f* t5 J事实上，女股神Cathie Wood早在8月上旬就发表看法，认为SEC通过现货ETF是迟早的事，且为了帮助平衡竞争
. e0 A3 L0 N9 P) \; Z2 `- M环境，届时可能会一次同时批准多家公司的申请;而最关键的时间点，她预期会是落在灰度赢得与SEC的诉讼，成
$ c. W* ^ m# h1 D& E功将GBTC向比特币现货ETF转型之后。
0 j4 A% a' O5 ?$ h4 d9 I7 Q三大利好消息酝酿8 O. A9 \/ u( Z$ v0 T& f
市场普遍认为SEC可能对比特币ETF的立场有所软化的潜在积极信号主要有三个：0 l/ u0 {0 r4 P" H
GBTC负溢价率缩窄
: K: W$ b. @* g; I1 y# E" t0 ~3 A! U最受市场瞩目的GBTC转比特币现货ETF的预测其实可以从GBTC的负溢价率来看，GBTC自从2021年2月以后就持
6 _: N _9 M# s1 u5 Y% a+ p续呈现「负溢价」，并在去年底比特币大跌的时候一度逼近-50%。不过随着市场回温以及GBTC转型成现货ETF可, O$ [, V) p9 y6 s" S( }- r' L
能性的上升，负溢价正持续减少中。据Ychart数据，截至上周五(18日)GBTC的负溢价已来到约-25%。) |1 C2 ?' Q# l
杠杆型比特币期货ETF已上线
; k d9 Q6 ^ Z值得一提的是，ETF发行商Volatility Shares早在6月27日上线杠杆型比特币ETF，其中「2倍杠杆」意味着用户只4 @3 n, a# R: x1 L5 F: M
要投入比特币价值的一半就可以放大成一枚的比特币，自亮相以来，以吸引超过2000万美元的资金投入。! O$ C, G2 l, W2 G6 e/ f
多档以太坊期货ETF提交申请7 Q0 X* P3 y# ]* S' d
不只是比特币的相关金融产品展开新的进度，Volatility Shares也在7月28日向SEC提交以太坊期货ETF申请，随后
% Y) V y) c: w% L0 s' c多家美国基金管理公司也纷纷提出以太坊期货ETF申请，迄今有高达16档以太坊期货ETF正等待SEC的审查，虽然8 O, v! g: c. K: r% P
知情人士强调，以太坊期货ETF是否能推出，尚未得到保证，但也被认为是一大利好消息。
& ~8 p8 K8 U5 ]7 E1 ^' v' Y
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