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[虚拟币交流]
方舟投资：比特币牛市短期内不会发生！宏观经济对风险资产不利（转载）
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不少人推测加密货币市场已进入熊市底部，或可以在近期建仓等待反涨。但女股神
9 g- E$ U% J, V- ?$ UCathie Wood旗下投资管理公司方舟投资(ARK Invest)于近日发布的比特币8月分析报告指出，多项宏观经济数据
: S% A3 ] [/ g表明短期加密货币市场恐将下跌，前景不容乐观..
5 j8 ]$ z2 M) ^: z* Y& n长期看涨比特币？短期看跌？
$ V5 O# a: z- G1 B! E7 H尽管方舟投资近期研究指出，比特币和人工智能的整合将能有效提高企业生产力、降低成本，会是未来的乐观看' H- }+ Q v" ~) p& n4 Y
涨信号，但考虑到近期宏观经济数据，比特币牛市的发展恐不会在短期内发生。+ P* f/ ~5 }. a* w( ]& n+ @) u# Z
据研究报告，方舟投资列举了加密货币前景不太乐观的几大原因，其一是自然利率与实际联邦基金政策利率的变- I! l! G3 y* H5 x" p* V$ U% L
化。随着通货膨胀持续放缓，将推高实际联邦基金政策利率并扩大与自然利率之间的差距，该指标对宏观经济影
& y8 r/ R! m! |响相对悲观。 t% E2 v1 O" |
另分析师也关注到GDP(国内生产毛额)和GDI(国内生产收入)之间的差异。据报告指出，GDP和GDI应紧密结合，$ f* B5 k1 }1 J! T/ H
因为赚取的收入应等于所生产的商品和服务的价值。然而，最新数据显示，GDP比GDI高出约3%，这表明生产数1 H. ~9 J' E. T( H/ N' [
据的向下修正是可以预期的。
T, T% A2 ^2 D B" c& v ~除此之外，美国ZF已连续六个月下调就业数据，突显了劳动力市场的疲软。而上一次连续六个月向下修正是在
- P+ C. h1 {( C$ L2007年，也就是金融危机爆发之前，这一事实也值得注意。
/ q# L+ A* J' Q$ L. O0 W/ L宏观经济情况可能对风险资产不利; _6 N, O, R' W- ~9 c
另该报告还引用了Johnson Redbook Index(红皮书同店零售销售指数)，数据指出8月份同店销售总额出现12个5 n/ K, E- j3 [ g) z. e5 J. @6 L2 U
月以来的首次反弹，这表明通膨正在上升，ZF可能会施加上行压力。! r6 s$ j+ o+ w8 ?
上述指标或也表明，当前的宏观经济不确定性可能在未来几个月继续存在。然而，我们无法确定若经济增长放缓& q3 I. E, Q7 C3 }
和通膨上升，加密市场会如何反应，但这种情况通常被认为对风险资产非常不利。1 U. d% T O: {3 K( B/ ^
值得一提的是，方舟投资与加密货币交易所产品发行商21Shares曾共同合推比特币现货ETF，但美国证券交易委
& |7 d) O6 e7 K! M. y5 w' w员会(SEC)于今年8月延长了审查时间。对此，Cathie Wood认为，SEC最终势必会通过现货ETF，但时间会落在灰- M4 g& x/ e1 `% G& l
度赢得与SEC的诉讼后。+ h( b4 w0 ]% g* ?- w% Y; x
% f) G' n6 W; C" ]/ i |
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牛市或者熊市不是好预测的，还是尽量预测出短期走势吧，如果你想短抄的话 |
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