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国盛证券今日发文分析称，参考黄金ETF推出对金价的推动，
' w0 y* G% ]2 ~% X
4 r/ q0 V& b* x; N) Q9 {比特币现货ETF值得期待。黄金ETF的推出对金价产生积极推动，" @1 M6 f2 k, |# M
V6 r1 [0 n! [6 W, X; z这对比特币现货ETF有着积极的启示。需要注意的是，世界对黄
. k. a9 V ~1 b" x+ ^$ J/ F; b, }4 k5 Z2 j& d, a1 a
金的认可并非由现货ETF而产生，而若比特币现货ETF获批，则意
& n) F# w% C7 y7 }/ a1 ]
6 k$ C4 ^: W" r6 p! R i: M味着庞大的传统财富世界对比特币、甚至Web3.0世界的认可，将 O% s5 v& J/ J7 c$ H9 o1 X0 U
o* @5 u( E% N: l/ \进一步加速两者的融合。这是一个从0到1的过程，边际变化远超, a. a- k6 w( Y& T, S g
6 J) e$ C5 f1 ^/ ^% b# F
是黄金ETF获批。
* `# ~0 w9 Y# T6 B
d$ J! o$ q: `当然，另一层面不同的是，比特币总数固定在2100万枚，而黄金
, T: k" { A4 c9 a' E3 E3 m8 x7 I N7 ]( {. E1 V* V( C- d& F
仍然有不断的新增产出。比特币现货ETF在美获批，有望带来增量: W7 \- T3 u. S& R, ]3 L8 j0 E U
5 N! M& |' Q1 ~8 R# ^/ J0 n资金。Galaxy Digital测算得到的结论是：比特币在现货ETF获批的. u0 A4 k- B3 d& v+ ?- [
7 \( p* D2 { x8 |* Y4 E第一年内预计上涨74%（以2023年9月30日比特币价格26920美元. x6 ~- G% d+ I' c- S; c3 ]
) d- e8 q- v* j5 D- Q为起点）；在较长时间内，投资比特币产品的潜在资金规模为1250亿5 [2 P! x6 V, Q; z& v3 d" Y
9 C0 T. q5 }" `7 V) v M美元至4500亿美元之间。
# G& w; o* J. D( {5 K% F) `% u& {( b" x. p! M z
D3 m% X9 D3 d% q R8 P% y. v |
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