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[虚拟币交流]
Peter Schiff：比特币现货ETF获准可能对币价产生灾难性影响（4日转）
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9 W# q% q6 G) X- B尽管市场对美国当局可能批准第一档比特币现货ETF充满期待，知名比特币怀疑论者、3 n' B' Y# I# I U$ d+ Y
提倡拥抱黄金的Peter Schiff警告，比特币狂热人士要小心不要抱持过多期望。- {# N# D" i" m: p5 n: M2 { r9 K
Peter Schiff在社群平台X上贴文表示，比特币现货ETF获准可能对比特币价格产生灾难性影响。他说，关于美国上
6 V; J7 j/ i" v" M8 V市推出比特币现货ETF的展望，已经支撑了比特币的价格和投机性需求长达数年。这代表，如果预料中的机构投资
% @% F& F& f/ o, `! {需求没有来临，就算ETF获得核准上市，比特币价格也会暴跌，「当心冲击！」
& Y. o5 a( Z3 T; S0 P$ g- QPeter Schiff长期来一直对比特币持怀疑态度，而且多年来持续预测比特币会灭亡，然而比特币每轮周期的表现都# ^7 }' o* B2 Z2 A* I
证明他是错的。他的推文收到比特币支持者的大量留言，这些支持人士提醒他，正如黄金ETF并没有减损实体黄金
% H# t5 a3 S3 [: x4 l$ J7 C的需求一样，如果出现比特币现货ETF，只会为比特币市场增添动能。+ R8 Y. C- I! a% N
然而，搜集许多数据的顾问业者Matrixport也提醒说，比特币支持人士可能必须再等更久的时间，才能见到首档0 ?4 q3 {6 F, ?0 Y* ~8 I
比特币现货ETF在美国上市。该公司预测，美国证管会(SEC)可能会在1月10日的最终期限否决所有比特币现货ETF+ A* W) j5 A$ ]1 @# e) Q
的申请。( y9 N$ |5 |2 |1 E+ r9 |+ v
Matrixport的最新预测和许多ETF分析师先前的预测截然相反，一些分析师预期这些申请案有90%的机率会在1月. |! r& c, _6 t
10日的最终期限前闯关成功。不过，Matrixport表示，尽管ETF申请者频繁与SEC的工作人员开会，但「所有申请! ]% ?) x2 S' J# Q
案都没有达到能获得SEC核准前必须达到的关键要求。」Matrixport表示，预期在2024年的第2季前，都不会见/ o; ^* Z0 h- [8 w& H- Y/ N
到有任何一档比特币现货ETF获准上市。
' p2 _8 x; M5 a, d! ]该公司的分析指出，目前在SEC的五人投票委员小组中，包括SEC主席Gary Gensler在内的民主党人占了多数地
. O/ ~' O0 e. y) e位，因此不太可能投票通过核准比特币现货ETF。
b: X# e5 Y; M6 `6 G V许多报告援引匿名消息人士预测，第一档比特币现货ETF会在1月2日前获得核准，然而这并没有发生。随着SEC在
6 m( G% v5 f r; g) k1月10日做出决定的最后期限逼近，市场的乐观情绪正转变为怀疑，证据包括加密货币挖矿公司的股价走软，而且9 f& q" z9 w& l: Q
几档与比特币相关的美国股票卖压涌现。此外，比特币在1月3日盘中一度大跌9%。" c% a: V: Q8 r) Y" Q8 k7 x; a
彭博社ETF分析师Eric Balchunas先前一直看好比特币现货ETF有99%的机率会在2024年第1季获准上市，现在他& W$ X! g6 R& k. W4 V1 ~6 m, x
相信，SEC仍有「些许」机会可能拒绝比特币现货ETF的申请案。, j/ r, D$ w8 R5 T
! z8 h2 [9 X* |9 r: c. X- v6 v
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产生灾难性影响的是要看啊
4 ^* t" |/ e Y7 H. H8 O# P% e( c |
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