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[体育菠菜心得方法] 《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第一节]
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第一节 平手初盘$ J% @0 K, ]5 @* I6 o' T; m: c
     " p% A9 L8 X! r! Y1 P4 J
     平手中水,主队有利
6 i& i! G  S/ `     在英超08-09赛季中,澳彩初盘平手盘占到所有380场比赛中的的13%,出现频率相对不高。在全部51场比赛中,主队21胜15平15负。主胜率不到5成、平局比率29%、客胜率比29%。此数据与06-07、07-08赛季的统计结果基本吻合,再看09-10赛季。# J( u: g6 ?0 k  P/ Q
     09-10赛季半程主队平手盘成绩统计:
7 L4 F+ }) ?3 X2 T8 G$ I     英超主队) C) h' Z, Y+ X: m0 W2 {2 y
     胜:13场 48%
3 ?3 B/ h" b, ~* @1 h     平:5场 17%  s5 I- k9 z7 g# ~
     负:9场 35%- U4 x7 o8 C. i0 J1 R6 W
     通过09-10赛季已完成的初盘为平手盘的成绩统计,可以发现,在平手盘下本赛季英超主队的主场胜率50%、较之08-09赛季的41%明显提高,虽然只是多半程的统计结果,但是随着联赛深入,平手盘会逐渐减少,全赛季的数据不会出现太大变化。
4 F$ V7 |: i1 [! `, j0 o' h     + f% k4 W4 j& G2 B7 J
     一、初盘阶段
( S( @+ g3 |9 j6 \! ~: }8 v. N! M9 O     具体到水位如下:* }$ x. Y3 I5 d# d
     初盘平手低水:英超主队3胜3平4负7 b) u2 l5 z; L) C7 J! p
     初盘平手中水:英超主队4胜2平0负
1 h) y" Q( e. Y+ ^; I     初盘平手高水:英超主队6胜1平2负$ C6 v; s; A+ ]* [' h
     + [) r2 x- [" i. b) M
     分析:初盘平手低水时,英超客队赢球的机会较多,该水位中0.74-0.78区间主队基本不败,足彩较支持31格局。而0.84水位出现了2次、主队均都输球,该水位下足彩建议双选30为主。初盘0.80、0.82水位下打出任何结果的可能都属正常,较缺乏规律性,14场足彩建议大包,任选9建议回避此类初盘水位下的比赛。9 B1 s% T1 e5 D  j; ~. C  ]+ ?
     初盘阶段平手中水,英超主队不败比率最高,足彩可重点考虑复选31,单场玩法可以博平手中水主队不败。$ C# p3 P6 M; n
     初盘阶段主队平手高水,打出平局的机会不大,足彩双选30较为正路。
, K: V2 Y( ~3 J; V     & U+ X. Q3 g8 P3 r+ k6 w
     二、临场阶段
2 l+ q  _. m( z# S. ?% s/ H     
" G& }, \& t8 j8 C8 r     具体到变盘和水位如下:
3 E7 @8 e- J4 _% v  Q     临场阶段出现降盘:英超主队3胜2平2负
1 z5 F3 U  m" `9 D' r. f. ?. ?' c     临场阶段出现升盘:英超主队3胜2平1负
# i0 {3 u/ z% o- c/ E# a     
8 L7 U4 S* {" L     临场阶段转为主队受让,存在客队临场大热可能,也可以正路理解是主队由弱转为更弱的体现,统计结果是主队3胜2平2负,虽然平局记录较高,但是浅盘下足彩还是复选30较为稳妥。1 F" U6 }9 ?* j- K
     临场阶段主队升盘,打出什么结果都属正常,足彩竞猜难度较大。而这个临场变盘的盘路中有3场与朴茨茅斯有关,为了尽可能做到精选,现将具体盘口表现做如下浅析:
; v/ u+ }; Z5 U6 v7 C     
) J3 I/ Q( m$ A7 |) ]3 Y  I     朴茨茅斯2-3博尔顿: M; M. Q5 H* t, f- U% I; W0 C
     初盘:0.82平手1.04  z: y; I+ r$ o7 d9 j  ?$ R
     终盘:1.01平手/半球0.85
# }4 i# z; z% l     0 s* n1 ?: ^0 q4 d  `* e! U( a
     朴茨茅斯1-1西汉姆. @* v; r1 n! Q1 K" |; m# B/ ~
     初盘:0.76平手1.101 ]& H+ `& B8 c/ L, z* U- L
     终盘:0.95平手/半球0.91, J; @3 ~: j% }6 l5 Z3 |
     
: e" F6 ~4 A- ^  U$ q  @$ w# v8 O) e     朴茨茅斯4-0维冈竞技& p* S9 H5 H7 v1 D: j
     初盘:0.82平手1.04
: L# {' r" }9 o/ y$ g% H; L% F     终盘:0.88平手/半球0.98' e- s* j+ B: a2 K" `
     
$ R4 x+ \/ v8 b3 r) {     伯恩利2-1西汉姆8 X0 R% A* H" a, b+ m
     初盘:0.88平手0.98* \0 B7 X1 J( d2 j0 C: A2 I
     终盘:1.12平/半0.74
, L4 k5 H! Z6 d4 A" ^; j     我们可以发现,0.82/1.04水位出现了2次,最终都分出了胜负。而初盘平手低水临场变化为平/半高水时主队盘口反倒没有1.12超高水安全。那么,根据这个水位变化,对再出现临场升盘的盘路,我们既可以对投注方向做出相对精确的判断。% e1 b( f  u2 o# e1 ?+ c; o. |, R3 `
     提示1:在平手盘0.82/1.04初盘水位,分出胜负的可能性较大。" y7 I! q1 g9 m+ u7 I" f4 S' J) Z
     提示2:平手超低水临场出现升盘,足彩应以31为主。平手低水升盘由冷转热的可能较大,足彩建议01双选。
2 Z1 e* |( u. O9 z) {; H     
4 b5 k8 Z, j$ E" L; Q/ g5 ]9 ^     三、球队表现. q4 x$ _0 W( D& u
     
: a! o" a5 ], S- f) s4 l- l6 a+ f3 y     结合到球队表现,虽然本赛季利物浦持续低迷,但是在平手盘下却是表现最好的队伍,2战皆胜、分别战胜了曼联和阿森纳,可见红军面对强敌开出平手盘时并不处于劣势,反倒拥有神勇表现,足彩首选3值得信任。在该盘下值得认可的球队还有斯托克城、埃弗顿、曼城、博尔顿、西汉姆,这些球队均都在主场赢球或不败,平手盘下足彩打出3、1的可能都比较大。打出平局较少的球队是富勒姆、狼队、伯恩利,这些球队主场平手盘下非胜即败,作风硬朗少有平局,足彩注意多走两头。表现较差的球队分别是桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技,这些球队主场平手盘下不胜或输球的记录较多,足彩打出01可能较大。
9 ^/ |& ~- D5 Y- O, W0 O4 |) l     - ]# `8 E# P/ |0 i+ m% P
     四、投注要点9 i* ^8 n8 V! X3 u4 p% D
     要点1:平手中水、主多不败9 Z2 `0 {+ o% s, {% y5 \- L( \9 v
     要点2:平手降盘、走两头: I1 O( v  h$ H. S1 U7 |
     要点3:利物浦平手盘,多选不败! Z% ^2 u) S2 _0 Z7 z6 X+ W
     要点4:伯恩利主场平手盘口价值较大
, G" G0 z1 L- {# f     要点5:阿森纳平手盘不值得信任
. f3 N. q* W# F$ P! r     要点6:桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技注意30出现可能性较大7 O4 [  x7 w: d5 a8 o1 I& g- q0 S: V( P
     要点7:初盘0.80、0.82低水,足彩任选九或单场、竞彩时建议回避此水位下的比赛
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新人来学习下,谢谢楼主。
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谢谢楼主的心得分享!
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