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[体育菠菜心得方法] 《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第一节]
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第一节 平手初盘4 Z4 [+ U; v& ^; u& p
     
: V8 |% |5 D) P     平手中水,主队有利
4 L- Z# V! `. j) O( x# C  W2 P     在英超08-09赛季中,澳彩初盘平手盘占到所有380场比赛中的的13%,出现频率相对不高。在全部51场比赛中,主队21胜15平15负。主胜率不到5成、平局比率29%、客胜率比29%。此数据与06-07、07-08赛季的统计结果基本吻合,再看09-10赛季。  d3 k5 E& _) t% D" S# c2 a
     09-10赛季半程主队平手盘成绩统计:
$ I# n8 j- [. y: K6 l1 L* D4 ^     英超主队+ q0 C! X! T( t7 L; g$ G
     胜:13场 48%% i; j" J& b6 b3 }- e% V
     平:5场 17%
1 X; }( n% ]+ w     负:9场 35%' J" q4 l4 q" g; b
     通过09-10赛季已完成的初盘为平手盘的成绩统计,可以发现,在平手盘下本赛季英超主队的主场胜率50%、较之08-09赛季的41%明显提高,虽然只是多半程的统计结果,但是随着联赛深入,平手盘会逐渐减少,全赛季的数据不会出现太大变化。
6 i% q7 J0 x7 j' M     9 k$ s6 \$ `3 i. j/ f( B
     一、初盘阶段- W2 f/ |2 G* N6 x: W
     具体到水位如下:
, ~0 d& `' I7 q5 o9 K: g/ I7 O     初盘平手低水:英超主队3胜3平4负
. y) b. X8 `. f" l3 N( a  E5 ?     初盘平手中水:英超主队4胜2平0负
" v* R2 i. B% c0 B: q2 G     初盘平手高水:英超主队6胜1平2负( w3 u5 u# @" r7 M( Q. g5 Y
     ) T! `, n3 T" O
     分析:初盘平手低水时,英超客队赢球的机会较多,该水位中0.74-0.78区间主队基本不败,足彩较支持31格局。而0.84水位出现了2次、主队均都输球,该水位下足彩建议双选30为主。初盘0.80、0.82水位下打出任何结果的可能都属正常,较缺乏规律性,14场足彩建议大包,任选9建议回避此类初盘水位下的比赛。
0 P$ U8 C: O+ m     初盘阶段平手中水,英超主队不败比率最高,足彩可重点考虑复选31,单场玩法可以博平手中水主队不败。% e! @) y1 `  a" z1 @
     初盘阶段主队平手高水,打出平局的机会不大,足彩双选30较为正路。# p' y; [3 |! \" c% r  ?5 g
     
, S4 ^" H, f  T" E, q( J; m     二、临场阶段
: a; y& O6 L3 v) t/ @3 S* L: B/ F     $ ^! G% j) Q% o- a
     具体到变盘和水位如下:1 @  \* i0 F: G  q0 n% f' F0 L2 _, m
     临场阶段出现降盘:英超主队3胜2平2负
6 [; h4 u. @% u3 u& f, B! u     临场阶段出现升盘:英超主队3胜2平1负$ G) X4 i* Z5 C( U0 J, t
     
0 ^8 D; u6 i) f% E6 S) @2 B2 m     临场阶段转为主队受让,存在客队临场大热可能,也可以正路理解是主队由弱转为更弱的体现,统计结果是主队3胜2平2负,虽然平局记录较高,但是浅盘下足彩还是复选30较为稳妥。
  l& \8 L; M+ ~! x& u8 V# d     临场阶段主队升盘,打出什么结果都属正常,足彩竞猜难度较大。而这个临场变盘的盘路中有3场与朴茨茅斯有关,为了尽可能做到精选,现将具体盘口表现做如下浅析:
6 j0 Y% A( S7 a. A+ S) L     3 x$ F( T; K. `4 j9 R
     朴茨茅斯2-3博尔顿
* V$ f/ i3 x2 v- p1 v. W: Z+ s     初盘:0.82平手1.040 C8 `, v. U  Q- w# R
     终盘:1.01平手/半球0.85
) s5 ?5 Y. y& s3 G# Q: p- O  L# S! O' L     
' r* [$ Y3 i% c3 k' D/ t     朴茨茅斯1-1西汉姆
$ V' \& u# Q' a1 c/ Q     初盘:0.76平手1.10
1 J2 t6 q# D% Q/ A9 y0 m8 \     终盘:0.95平手/半球0.919 [" |; a5 g6 K
     " B9 ~! \2 A. {  P! y8 t0 H( H
     朴茨茅斯4-0维冈竞技+ i& j: W0 \5 V  H2 n0 ~
     初盘:0.82平手1.043 @! m$ d/ R! J$ O5 |9 f4 U3 A$ O
     终盘:0.88平手/半球0.98
% @/ T9 N5 ]) c     . Y2 G: A" |( E  n1 R
     伯恩利2-1西汉姆
. Q' B0 a% f1 R9 ]. Z     初盘:0.88平手0.98( k# S; y6 ~  c9 O
     终盘:1.12平/半0.74
2 o. ~9 }. ~! J9 I     我们可以发现,0.82/1.04水位出现了2次,最终都分出了胜负。而初盘平手低水临场变化为平/半高水时主队盘口反倒没有1.12超高水安全。那么,根据这个水位变化,对再出现临场升盘的盘路,我们既可以对投注方向做出相对精确的判断。& A' ]& l: f  c) B* v' u
     提示1:在平手盘0.82/1.04初盘水位,分出胜负的可能性较大。
4 M- s1 |( S. b! x9 V     提示2:平手超低水临场出现升盘,足彩应以31为主。平手低水升盘由冷转热的可能较大,足彩建议01双选。
+ M  [  ^6 w( ?4 u+ ~     
+ @3 D& {: J! x# N8 \     三、球队表现
6 W1 m4 j) [4 _     ! a! v0 i' `$ `
     结合到球队表现,虽然本赛季利物浦持续低迷,但是在平手盘下却是表现最好的队伍,2战皆胜、分别战胜了曼联和阿森纳,可见红军面对强敌开出平手盘时并不处于劣势,反倒拥有神勇表现,足彩首选3值得信任。在该盘下值得认可的球队还有斯托克城、埃弗顿、曼城、博尔顿、西汉姆,这些球队均都在主场赢球或不败,平手盘下足彩打出3、1的可能都比较大。打出平局较少的球队是富勒姆、狼队、伯恩利,这些球队主场平手盘下非胜即败,作风硬朗少有平局,足彩注意多走两头。表现较差的球队分别是桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技,这些球队主场平手盘下不胜或输球的记录较多,足彩打出01可能较大。5 V- O8 f# c: I' M0 B) q4 D! C: w+ U
     2 W8 B7 j6 V. _- a( ?1 o1 l2 r
     四、投注要点9 {: X! I1 t. `: Y
     要点1:平手中水、主多不败3 b! E$ Q- e0 _: ]
     要点2:平手降盘、走两头, c% `! l4 x, G& s2 r5 Q
     要点3:利物浦平手盘,多选不败+ \+ h  O/ Q  Q+ T' V$ O3 F* I
     要点4:伯恩利主场平手盘口价值较大& S8 a9 x) _/ F3 e6 ], ]
     要点5:阿森纳平手盘不值得信任
7 u0 I% v: J9 G: `5 U  J0 \     要点6:桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技注意30出现可能性较大
$ q5 h/ R1 M  K' p     要点7:初盘0.80、0.82低水,足彩任选九或单场、竞彩时建议回避此水位下的比赛
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新人来学习下,谢谢楼主。
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谢谢楼主的心得分享!
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