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[lastpost] => 2647770 博乐360真人特奖德州扑克教程第一章——基本知识(转载) 1715144350 rainwang
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以下是输给那破游戏不甘心后的乱想..如有错误请提出或无视.. 首先是豹子问题
/ j5 k+ V3 C y9 q; e' w& H8 _
* s8 X y9 j1 J K4 U" r" D因为太郁闷..所以从排列组合开始..
3 j2 k; V7 W! }" n' \/ G# L' W
3 T& u6 f4 o% S6 n% r* b4 b假设直线A上有N个点,取任意点都有相同程度的概率.那么有2个取点者同时随即取点E,2者同时取得点E的概率是E/N*N2 O0 |5 B3 k& e2 O" N( H
4 L' m1 W9 |" f4 |. A1 M那么豹子的出现概率是2/216=0.00926=0.926%
# [% @8 N7 Y V: F2 E, x0 ~$ q6 M/ X
豹子的赔率是30那么收益期望为0.2778风险为99.074%
% c/ G- B9 Q& o a$ N4 V# N+ D! C
连续2次出现率为42.67%的负4次方(大概是大型超市抽奖活动的特等奖的概率..有信心的可以玩下)
3 K/ F9 `4 s( {+ _
1 }$ Z" X7 |; N' {在是压大小问题.6 @+ H" f" j4 N6 G
; o9 ]- `, E; O& t& _8 O
根据以上得出每组大小的概率是49%..
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由此可见..压大小就总合来说是必败的/ _" m; ^) A1 L2 g
9 j6 {% F! y0 c& Q, n. O心理学中有个叫赌徒效应还是啥啥的..是说随即序列发生一个事件的概率与之前发生的事件无关。即发生的概率并没有因先前发生的事件而增加。
8 r6 ~9 @) J0 b6 C% M0 @/ R
2 q+ K( f; `- N! v5 H2 B9 I1 X也就是说,压大小实际上永远就是49%概率压对。
2 { z. _, M) Q: O( R& T7 s& {
, H% Z6 u* U$ i% J0 {0 O+ V7 f并非这次压错了.下次就是50%了 t5 Y% r; ^0 j3 y. L/ _3 t0 [4 ?
! }+ q7 f2 [. T* B1 W [7 r; f4 e6 I
由此可见压大小以综合来说必输.压豹子其收益价与风险值不成比列。2 ^) I* S0 d4 S5 _
9 O" @" P6 Z2 a. ?/ T$ b/ B5 J" h" N根据以上分析.还是奉劝大家!远离DB! c) a3 G1 x' G9 D3 h" M0 }
# Q/ Q8 b5 C* F! w5 d/ o2 O4 ^2 X还有..以上是有实际验证的~昨天赌了上百回资金流动大概有成千上万..损失了进两百
& Y: I# _7 B K: v# r* y6 n# h+ Q0 S7 r! v. r0 ^2 ?
今天中午又赌了N次..资金流动上千..损失了30左右..均与以上概率成比例~ 嘛- -偶赌的还算比较厉害了..输的惨就不去说了~~那位上千的全没了- S+ T0 A( Q0 C0 V7 k
; ~7 O) l( B/ d+ M& A" {4 ^5 X3 r2 B; i偶决定在也不赌了~真的.../ F7 p, V& ^7 T) ]
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必输的东西也是要来旁观了啊,这么的东西还是值得学学的 |
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