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[lastpost] => 2649289 机构可能对比特币DeFi应用表现出兴趣(转) 1715524876 rainwang
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当前离线
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首先回顾下本周发生的事情:熊:美国ZF开始将其查获的暗网电商丝绸之路的( Y2 \* P' m3 [5 d' j) Q
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总计30174枚比特币转向了交易所,相关人士认为这是抛售的前兆,因此带来了恐慌,
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4 T7 @$ q8 X5 \" o6 A: u方舟基金,灰度基金都抛售了比特币。这导致币比特币一度跌到64500附近。
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牛:(1)Fidelity,Blackrock都在持续增持比特币,其中blackroak增持3100枚,
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7 }& ^& Q1 X& Y( {: WFidelity增持1100枚(2)神秘地址以100枚为单位疯狂购入比特币,越跌越买,四天
+ m7 Z& X5 k% m2 s) Z d
! {2 T4 m# I- V内抄底2170枚。个人猜测可能是某国ZF在买入,如果未来的有一天,某个国家ZF
2 {- J. b$ @( z6 P8 J2 N9 h- ]/ J7 R1 u/ w2 H3 i6 ^
宣布其持续买入比特币,可能就是准备抛售,见大顶的时候(3)usdt4天内增发30亿( d, r) N9 N. l1 ^9 m* `- O
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枚,在过去的日子,以周为单位,USDT增发都会带来币价大涨聊完了新闻,我们回到
* {1 S9 j5 ?' k9 L8 A0 d; Q# } F5 o. A$ [3 A3 g; q! k
k线。首先看比特币:从日线上看,比特币在两个红色矩形之间(60000,72000)形成
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' z" z w+ W, \0 N# o% p& {# e震荡,振幅逐步收窄,很快就要选择出方向。考虑HSEMA9逐步逼近蓝色EMA18,死* l) M- u) r) u4 B1 j0 G
& v B* d2 \$ x7 O% d: R7 X叉一旦形成,上涨趋势会被破环,比特币将测试下方红色矩形6万的位置。因此,为了; c! k0 I, k x9 D+ a% P, b
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避免死叉的形成,比特币需要快速反弹。反弹只有突破绿色区间71300的位置才可以确* { t/ W* H0 y
- A! o3 ^3 h7 i, b, o' X7 ]0 L6 d定一个更高的高点,从而走出下降趋势。如果无法站稳71300,再次测试60000只是时9 i$ C* a6 F$ z
- t0 v ?! u7 [( ~8 U# f) m间问题。如果6万不保,下方HS矩形是大支撑,也就是53000~50000的区间。个人认. U8 m: \ S& x8 A
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为这是最坏的情况,不认可一些人认为去3万。
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从4小时来看基本和日线一致,无需赘述。不过4小时的EMA200形成了一个比较强的支撑
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,已经测试4次进行了反弹。本人也多次在EMA200做多吃到了短线涨幅。但考虑一个支撑- e# h1 t1 l- b% i5 `
; \! h0 z" t4 X7 h% c, ~位被多次测试,那么其跌破的概率就越来越多。因此,如果比特币不能快速收复73100,7 p* _ s4 A4 K
) T/ x6 l- G9 V/ oEMA200跌破只是时间问题,下一步就看60000的表现。
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考虑美股连涨5个月有短期见顶的信号,结合美国可能抛售的3万枚比特币。本人近期看空,
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认为比特币至少会去次6万。
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( w7 |1 t* o& X% {" w* o( L2 A7 @
抛售量这个也是很多的了吧 |
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