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比特币减半即将到来,距离减半仅剩约10天。面对即将到来的比特币减半,我们应该如何应对未来的行情呢?
% c& K E% E6 C/ e0 S& D% ]! Q/ x' S9 g" U7 ?1 {( c2 C+ c5 p
. q, k* z. C5 V5 Q1 z. r( @( c, P
, |, ]7 o( c7 o1 X$ E! a; Q9 E" ~) D2 s 根据过去几次比特币减半的历史数据来看,通常比特币在减半后会先出现一波下跌,然后经过数月的盘整后,会迎来# u# W& Z9 ^3 Y6 \' \0 K/ y! U% \
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上涨行情并创造新的历史高点。根据目前比特币的日线图观察,我们可以看到比特币价格目前正在进行三角盘整,意味著比# G. Q5 j+ o [7 N
0 I/ u0 N2 q( ^: P# E& p特币可能会迎来向上或向下的行情。6 q/ W; C u2 i$ D' C
$ X1 s5 a! W T9 e0 i4 R此外,我们还可以从MACD和牛市平均线中获取一些信息。目前MACD仍处于盘整阶段,而牛市平均线已达到51000 - 53000美元。" m$ E( m. _/ b% M$ b7 Q3 e1 p# c5 b
. \" y& ?0 k; B5 I" y虽然比特币ETF的加持可能会使行情产生有所不同的变化,但我个人仍认为比特币可能会迎来一波回调阶段,然后在减半后进行盘
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1 F1 q" R2 @8 e" `4 c整,最终突破向上。% ?% N! P- k9 ?
" K$ C, V- _$ g% ]/ d1 q 我认为比特币的OTC市场对此有著重大影响。比特币的产出一直源自于矿工,而他们一直在OTC市场向大型机构出售比特币。5 v, K- j. Q/ N
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最近的报告显示,随著比特币需求的增加和卖方流动性的下降,比特币的流动存量已经下降到历史最低水平。分析师估计,目前3 F. K0 l$ { j# ^
. c+ t! @( e5 }9 ]比特币的卖方流动性库存只能满足未来6-12个月的需求增长。, `+ z% D3 S( T1 W* k
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根据以上信息,比特币的流动性库存只能满足未来6-12个月的需求增长,这意味著如果比特币的价格要大幅上涨,先决条件便是需
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要清空所有的库存,才能导致比特币价格上涨。随著比特币ETF对比特币的需求不断增加,我认为6-12个月只是伴随著现有情况而作
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# K" R+ y' H: C+ @* U出的估算,因此我们除了关注比特币价格外,还应该关注比特币ETF的供求情况和表现。
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综合以上信息,我认为比特币可能会像过去的行情一样,在减半后先迎来一波回调,然后等待OTC市场的比特币库存不足时,价格自
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然会上涨。届时,各大型机构将无法在任何OTC市场中购买比特币,可能会转而在现货市场进行购买,这可能会推动比特币价格上涨。! ] g0 @: B: @$ @) d) P
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