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[lastpost] => 2649386 TON钓鱼骗局bao光!虚假「入账5,000U」,数日内损失2.2万TON! 1715578536 天策-菱玖
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当前离线
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总在线: 12062 小时
本月在线: 20 小时
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比特币减半即将到来,距离减半仅剩约10天。面对即将到来的比特币减半,我们应该如何应对未来的行情呢?; t; Z& P$ O+ |' M8 J# p# K
" k! ?0 P3 L* C7 y Z1 w
/ c# \% B! j8 ]7 g
/ H' X# i7 J4 J 根据过去几次比特币减半的历史数据来看,通常比特币在减半后会先出现一波下跌,然后经过数月的盘整后,会迎来
0 @ Z5 \7 T% p) f. ^
4 S' X6 P5 w s上涨行情并创造新的历史高点。根据目前比特币的日线图观察,我们可以看到比特币价格目前正在进行三角盘整,意味著比
+ G$ Q4 k$ T% k9 D* A
2 B3 P) P! c, l& x- a3 w. l5 Q特币可能会迎来向上或向下的行情。( k; u! E G! q* a
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此外,我们还可以从MACD和牛市平均线中获取一些信息。目前MACD仍处于盘整阶段,而牛市平均线已达到51000 - 53000美元。. _4 \* i7 p) A' R
( M, Q; c/ ]) Z3 m ?' K虽然比特币ETF的加持可能会使行情产生有所不同的变化,但我个人仍认为比特币可能会迎来一波回调阶段,然后在减半后进行盘
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整,最终突破向上。0 e& p. S& }6 G5 h L, n: E
# z6 ?; t2 f/ |& q+ v) ]# R+ b, U8 B 我认为比特币的OTC市场对此有著重大影响。比特币的产出一直源自于矿工,而他们一直在OTC市场向大型机构出售比特币。& U# s y8 a" V. w
, @$ G. z. u' D' [ Z
最近的报告显示,随著比特币需求的增加和卖方流动性的下降,比特币的流动存量已经下降到历史最低水平。分析师估计,目前6 y2 R6 L! m( z( u- x# t
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比特币的卖方流动性库存只能满足未来6-12个月的需求增长。& u& I* f8 U# Y; g* I+ w4 f
9 M- [& ^0 Q, e& U3 j& M' z4 r
根据以上信息,比特币的流动性库存只能满足未来6-12个月的需求增长,这意味著如果比特币的价格要大幅上涨,先决条件便是需
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要清空所有的库存,才能导致比特币价格上涨。随著比特币ETF对比特币的需求不断增加,我认为6-12个月只是伴随著现有情况而作; v' [4 r4 l1 ~; i) s
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出的估算,因此我们除了关注比特币价格外,还应该关注比特币ETF的供求情况和表现。
# F5 \# b% m$ G% M
1 c/ o. H5 s6 _' J综合以上信息,我认为比特币可能会像过去的行情一样,在减半后先迎来一波回调,然后等待OTC市场的比特币库存不足时,价格自
- i: f1 j7 x' P" b3 Y$ o3 ?0 M
5 G: _; E6 h1 j3 \* n然会上涨。届时,各大型机构将无法在任何OTC市场中购买比特币,可能会转而在现货市场进行购买,这可能会推动比特币价格上涨。
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当前离线
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当前离线
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