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[虚拟币交流]
比特币价格分析：在6.9万美元被拒绝后，BTC获得新ATH的机会有多大？（转）
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在最近的牛市中，比特币的价格尚未达到历史新高，因为卖家正在捍卫他们的最后一道防线。% A' s% O0 Q! r9 N4 T1 e
) c- k7 _# B+ ]9 N9 ^1 _技术分析- ]8 S7 i9 R1 ^' P& x+ ^5 ]: r! t: j
By埃德里斯·德拉赫希（TradingRage）
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& `. N1 ^+ O- P1 G8 N每日图表
1 q8 b, a( b4 U0 Q s3 O9 E在日线图上，该资产最近反弹至6.4万美元水平和200天移动平均线之上，位于同一区域附近。这一上升趋势大大提高了比特币很快创下历史新高的可能性。% W4 a5 @1 S9 x8 K1 J9 r) r
" V; Y; d2 h6 n5 R% x$ S# }然而，卖家很好地捍卫了6.9万美元的阻力位，因为价格正在下跌。如果出现大幅回调，可以重新测试200天移动平均线。
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# I: t. k; [& f4 d+ ]/ {2 e) Z4小时图表
/ f3 [ q8 p4 S* ?9 V% z基于价格走势和动量分析，4小时图显示了明显的看跌信号。市场最近在6.9万美元的关键阻力区形成了一个上升的楔形。然而，RSI与最近的价格高点显示出明显的看跌背离。
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这导致了模式的崩溃，这是一个典型的看跌反转信号。RSI也显示低于50%的值，这表明动量在4小时内看跌。然而，由于整体市场结构仍然看涨，这一举措很可能只是暂时的调整。1 l' s3 c: f+ p
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情绪分析
" S" A7 @. x2 _7 ^& ~6 \* U* eBy埃德里斯·德拉赫希（TradingRage）
* @4 H8 W" x& k; q( ^0 Z4 h3 B
比特币芝加哥商品交易所期权未平仓合约（叠加）, U1 S2 V$ O8 I
在比特币最近的价格上涨中，投资者越来越乐观地认为，不久将出现新的历史新高和长期反弹。然而，这种乐观情绪有可能导致市场下跌。
v) {# ?6 w2 q4 n0 p4 [ O- y* O; v4 r% c# }$ `
此图表显示了比特币芝加哥商品交易所期权未平仓合约（堆叠），它衡量了未平仓期权头寸的数量，包括看涨期权和看跌期权。显然，与牛市早期和接近市场底部的水平相比，期权未平仓合约（OI）总额显著下降，在牛市早期和市场底部，看涨期权和看跌期权都堆积得更重。) v, v1 {( u- ~. W( ]$ V
3 m- Q: o2 X% _/ w% M7 [2 k! COI的下降表明，投资者对比特币价格走势的不确定性减少了，导致他们采取了更具方向性的头寸，减少了通过期权进行对冲的需要。与此同时，对芝加哥商品交易所期货的开放兴趣日益增加，表明投资者对这一趋势越来越有信心，愿意采取更多杠杆头寸并承担更大的风险。不用说，杠杆是一把双刃剑。
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