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[虚拟币交流]
Bitwise高管：人们正低估比特币 BTC将大幅上涨(转）
[复制链接]
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据两位 Bitwise 高管称，在特朗普ZF威胁要改革全球贸易，而经济指标表明各国央行可能向市场注入现金之际，比特币是一个“世代机遇”。# j$ Y7 G8 f3 P; K& r
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Bitwise Asset Management 的阿尔法策略主管 Jeff Park 在 2 月 16 日的 X 帖子中表示：“世界确实处于最大混乱的边缘。”, o" N3 H! _4 J1 D) |+ p9 J
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Park 指出，2 月 12 日众议院共和党预算计划将债务上限提高 4 万亿美元，旨在增加ZF支出，同时还有去全球化趋势加剧，尤其是唐纳德·特朗普 J- i; {5 {, ^ k' j P
2 J5 s/ `4 L4 n4 Q. ` |最近升级的互惠关税威胁。. ^! C0 X* `9 }7 b7 {
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Park 还指出，市场将出现他所谓的“最大延迟”，指出“黄金跑赢大盘的尾部风险”，共和党高达 4.5 万亿美元的“史无前例的减税”，以及他认为即将实施2 b' B8 n/ K" K- y$ h
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的收益率曲线控制 (YCC)——央行将长期利率作为刺激借贷和投资的目标。
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/ n0 a6 r) m) \2 m, T美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔对今年进一步降息的可能性泼了冷水——2 月 11 日，他告诉参议院银行委员会，美国经济“保持强劲”，美国“不需要急于调整”利率。- }7 k, y4 D x5 m( O2 l/ e' G! [6 ^
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Bitwise 首席执行官 Hunter Horsley 在 2 月 16 日的 X 帖子中写道：“人们严重低估了比特币今年进入主流的巨大飞跃。从未如此乐观。”
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9 [2 T2 a: ]2 z+ q f. ^“BTC IV 百分位数是全年最低的，你看不到这一代机会，所以我们不一样了，”Park 补充道，他指的是比特币的隐含波动率百分位数——过去一年中波动率- t9 q7 f& J' _8 D; B, S9 Z
) l* c# Q0 K( d6 H3 C低于当前水平的天数百分比。
3 `3 u! _# x9 g, i
2 b, y5 [# T7 a0 i根据 Deribit 的数据，比特币的波动率指数目前为 50.90，低于年度高点 71.28，IV 百分位数为 12.3。
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据 CoinGecko 数据，比特币在过去 24 小时内下跌超过 1.5%，交易价格略高于 96,000 美元。* M+ s& d2 N+ _: M" l
O" B5 b" X0 X" h" r, d今年到目前为止，比特币的交易价格在 90,000 美元至 100,000 美元之间，但在上个月末特朗普就职典礼期间达到 108,786 美元的峰值。
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追踪加密货币恐惧与贪婪指数的市场情绪在 2 月 17 日为 51 分（总分为 100 分），表明市场处于“中性”状态。市场情绪较上周的“恐惧”水平有所改善，但低于* p9 d& e- \% \/ `. K+ L( J+ S7 l
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上个月更为积极的市场情绪水平。6 @) X1 S* _0 h; t6 ^2 T) r/ K" P
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