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[虚拟币交流]
比特币交易员发出“超买”警告 比特币价格瞄准8.4万美元（转）
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- {4 p2 z+ K' g7 Q4 {! d0 S! ~7 K1 Q/ u 比特币（BTC）在第一季度的最后一个华尔街交易日中有所走高，但比特币价格观点远未确信空头已经失去控制。
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3月31日华尔街开盘时段，比特币价格小幅走高，尽管交易者对短期走势仍持风险规避态度。
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- C7 t+ d9 ?; ~ W* ] 比特币相对强弱指数（RSI）暗示跌势或将延续
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Cointelegraph Markets Pro与TradingView数据显示，Bitstamp交易所BTC/USD交易对当日上涨1.5%，最高触及8.3914万美元。/ h9 e: F+ Y5 F( c R9 [' S
; _. q6 L" [* S5 _9 P 尽管美股开盘走低，但在季度收盘前的最后几小时，比特币仍迎来期待已久的反弹。9 K& K6 N& S( Q- V7 }
0 K z" }* d h3 g 市场动能持续受4月2日即将生效的美国新关税政策影响，黄金在创下3128美元/盎司历史新高后亦出现回落。
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针对比特币价格走势，多数市场参与者仍持谨慎态度。/ b' c3 a: i' g% m7 e- z3 H
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知名交易员Roman在最新X平台分析中针对4小时BTC/USD图表指出：“正在重新测试我们关注的关键84，000美元区域”。他在引用相对强弱指数（RSI）时预测，
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9 Y) X& Y ]9 Z$ O价格或将回落至更接近80，000美元关口的水平。0 @) G5 M1 X, x0 k, L* w
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“从短期框架（LTF）看，随着下行突破和看跌回测完成，我认为价格将开始走低，”Roman补充道，“同时RSI正在回测50中轴，而随机指标已显示超买。更高时间7 s/ {) M1 c2 _8 I& ?1 S4 b
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框架（HTF）同样呈现看跌倾向。”/ n5 Q* b2 U7 P8 x( _' l" o8 x# j
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知名交易分析师Rekt Capital进一步解读RSI信号，指出比特币在突破数月下降趋势线后，正在日线级别回测支撑位。
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“$BTC的RSI正试图将下降趋势线转化为支撑位，同时价格走势也面临下降趋势压力，”他向X平台粉丝总结道，“若RSI能成功守住趋势线支撑．．．将显示市场正在1 V3 w- F4 X! B r; M9 }
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积蓄动能，价格有望突破现行下降通道。”. p5 Y% O- n' D+ t! e$ B
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早前Cointelegraph报道指出，多项比特币价格指标共同勾勒出当前牛市阶段的疲软态势，暗示回调行情或将延续。' j; B* V& `0 {2 j2 `
" I/ @7 W+ U# j/ q' g/ {! v 与此同时，各预测平台给出的BTC目标价位已下探至6.5万美元，部分模型甚至显示更低预期。 H: R i+ {) T: m
4 o# i/ n4 \3 i, f0 O# y 比特币价格分析显现与2024年末相似走势% b) I$ `6 \; v. N
" F& a. _# C0 ~. H- q I2 x7 _' M& Y 当前3月及第一季度的整体表现均未达市场预期。 ^1 Y0 q9 d8 i# o0 P6 |
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监测平台CoinGlass数据显示，在缺乏上行催化剂的背景下，截至发稿时BTC/USD年内累计下跌10.8%，3月单月跌幅达1.1%。
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该报告特别强调了比特币与美股日益增强的关联性：“尽管市场动荡，但近几周价格走势已在7.8万至8.8万美元区间形成整理格局。值得注意的是，
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# \- J* _( A a" n/ l$ Q/ X3 `市场恐慌性抛售迹象正在缓解——反应性卖盘减少，而长期持有者已重启积累模式。”
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