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[虚拟币交流]
2.67 的比特币价格温度将如何影响 BTC 的未来?(转)
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比特币价格温度升至2.64点,接近过热区域。
' h L, h, F% k G4 i尽管BPT上涨,但比特币在回调前仍有较大的上涨空间。
: {0 j% I1 |' b+ R/ E- E- b; G过去一个月里,比特币[BTC]已飙升 17.94%,从 8.3 万美元的低点上涨至 11.1 万美元。尽管近期涨势令人欣喜,但一些利益相关者对潜在的过热现象表示担忧。
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% a9 z, N9 w# d ^3 A; Q6 X其中一位是 CryptoQuant 分析师阿克塞尔·阿德勒他曾警告称,比特币正接近过热区域。
4 R9 }; E% ]$ k4 @1 d6 q7 K5 {% U& @* y) o/ o
Adler 在分析中观察到,比特币的价格温度已升至 2.67 点,这表明这枚王者币正接近潜在的过热区域。他补充道:
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( t3 t& l3 Y6 ]* W2 Q1 L7 L“本周期的前两个峰值是 BPT 达到 2.75 和 3.57。”1 ]. v( C- E# V
# {9 O8 z& K# @+ y J7 o平均而言,如果 BPT 达到 3.14,BTC 温度就已进入过热区域。目前,市场距离完全过热区域仍有 0.47 个点。
$ d3 ]8 M6 p$ H1 o' B: ~" d2 _2 ~; b0 C @7 b2 R4 l$ D4 r# Z
因此,BTC 尚未达到之前的最高水平,在达到过热水平之前仍有一定的上涨空间。2 f) \$ N5 H: u2 \! q6 O6 r6 x
! V0 c) K' t; E) {$ |9 U
BTC 图表暗示了什么
% x/ d" P6 j# i7 `! c' u虽然上述分析提供了乐观的前景,但必须再三核实并确定其他图表所表明的内容。
6 c- X- m( }% X7 v
2 E! f( B8 u* Q$ Z3 t首先,看看比特币的MVRV,截至发稿时约为2.4。过去一个月,它一直在2.13和2.41左右徘徊。这些水平通常与健康的市场相关。3 E0 L4 J5 `( T' e; ]. e
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从历史上看,当 MVRV 超过 3.0 时,比特币就进入过热阶段,长期持有者开始抛售。目前 MVRV 仍低于 2.5 和 3.0,表明 BTC 仍有上涨空间。- ]- q5 C+ |% V# G. i
5 _& r$ r! i% }5 z. C' I1 `7 g比特币的NUPL进一步证实了这一点。截至本文撰写时,NUPL处于58%或0.58,这是一个信念/否定区间。因此,由于NUPL尚未达到0.75,BTC尚未过热。
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; U8 t$ E) y+ g9 m1 z2 \. ?当 NUPL 进入极度兴奋区时,就会导致获利回吐,因为持有者开始担心潜在的调整。
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# ]% \& x" L# B D! K最后,从比特币的 Pi 周期顶部来看,BTC 远未过热。值得注意的是,当 111 日移动平均线 (SMA) 突破 2 倍 350 日移动平均线时,BTC 便进入过热区域。这种情况在过去四年中从未发生过。* y) s! B5 y6 M2 i# k$ ]
6 e& ^9 A- \& p6 n2 C. J最后一次交叉记录于 2021 年。
& G6 f) H8 _9 h! N% {3 c) I
% X; ~7 T7 J K: Z" `* [& n: v截至发稿时,350 x2 SMA 位于 16 万美元左右,而 111 DSMA 位于 9.1 万美元。因此,在两条线交汇之前,仍有进一步上涨的空间。4 e9 Z0 }+ L' d
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简而言之,尽管比特币的价格已飙升至接近过热的水平,但仍有上涨空间。此外,其他市场指标也表明,BTC 可能会继续上涨。" Z- F6 j! R( [
: a- @2 L- z7 D如果当前的上涨趋势持续下去,BTC 价格可能触及 12 万美元。然而,如果部分持有者转向获利了结,BTC 价格可能回落至 10.6 万美元。" E7 a2 L* Q: G
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