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[lastpost] => 2795576 比特币价格下跌,机构资金流动波动,表明市场情绪脆弱(转) 1767970275 jackcool1011
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当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 7356 小时
本月在线: 12 小时
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你知道吗? Coinbase Custody(而非贝莱德)持有 IBIT 中 BTC 的私钥,将客户资产安全地离线存储,并由商业保险提供支持。
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5 Z, b" F. \3 I6 r' t2.为什么贝莱德在 2025 年大举押注比特币?
8 l$ f3 o. s- e7 j6 P) r3 Z贝莱德的大规模配置背后,是其战略视角的转变:它已将比特币视为长期、多元化投资组合中的合法组成部分。
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' n0 e$ w; }1 r# e7 L r贝莱德的比特币战略
) N$ l# V5 {+ L% {贝莱德的内部论点是:接受比特币的波动性,换取其潜在的上行空间。通过 IBIT(iShares Bitcoin Trust),他们押注更广泛的采用将逐步稳定这一资产,改善价格发现、提升流动性并缩小买卖价差。9 h [6 a3 M# [+ t( e# X4 M
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在他们看来,比特币是对货币演化与数字资产基础设施的长期押注。这种来自全球最大资产管理公司的理念,向同行释放了强烈信号。它将机构对比特币的讨论从“是否要参与”转变为“应该配置多少”。% \( |" x% d- G9 G' O' E
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机构积累比特币的投资逻辑) Y5 y( _4 D3 p7 |/ W: ]- Y
贝莱德在 2025 年看好比特币的几个关键因素:0 e. E( m, c4 `5 ?
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稀缺性设计:比特币总量上限 2100 万枚,且通过减半机制控制增发,稀缺性与黄金相似,但背靠数字架构。部分估计显示,大量现有比特币已遗失或无法取用,使得实际可流通供应更为紧张。
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5 t `0 ]8 ~+ Y ?6 Y+ O美元霸权的替代品:在主权债务膨胀与地缘ZZ碎片化的背景下,比特币的去中心化特性提供了对法币风险的对冲。它被定位为一种中立的储备资产,抵御ZF过度干预与货币操纵。% [. \% P6 N; U- M; @: p' a9 s, `5 m
- P m, ~2 L% B; S, }, j/ O数字化转型的一部分:贝莱德将比特币视为宏观趋势的代理指标——从“线下”到“线上”价值体系的转变,涵盖金融、商业乃至财富代际转移。他们认为这一趋势受到人口结构的“超级驱动”,尤其是年轻投资者影响力的上升。' ^2 w5 H2 e5 V- c, j, ^- n. R
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这些因素组合起来,使比特币拥有传统资产类别无法复制的风险收益特征。贝莱德的表述是:比特币提供“额外的多元化来源”,为其进入主流投资组合提供了有力论据。
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贝莱德的加密投资组合整合
3 b6 I) n F8 T% S7 b% w b贝莱德主张采取审慎策略:在传统 60/40 股债组合中配置 1%~2% 的比特币。听起来比例不大,但对机构级投资组合而言,足以产生影响,并让保守的资金分配者逐渐接受比特币。# L# b, A1 N! H9 W9 D" L, ?
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他们还将比特币的风险画像与高波动科技股(如“七巨头”)作比较,以展示其在标准投资模型中的合理位置。; N* T0 v! e& t
3 `6 `) h* X( M7 _% @* {6 |, x! E7 B& f有趣的是,IBIT 内部比特币交易过程中产生的意外副产品(“尘埃”)里,包含了少量其他代币。贝莱德通常会将这些代币单独存放,或捐赠给慈善机构,以避免税务复杂性。( F, D: i" X6 o9 I( E+ c. R7 B
3 p; D8 S) `* u+ Q, L3.比特币 ETF 的市场影响
5 D* E) ~, l$ u贝莱德通过 IBIT 持有超过 3% 的比特币总供应量,这成为比特币在认知、交易与监管层面上的转折点。2 V& h- k; Y. O0 r/ ?/ `: }0 N$ b
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比特币历来因波动性著称,这源于固定供应、情绪波动和监管不确定性。过去,因市场流动性较薄,大额交易往往造成剧烈冲击。而随着 IBIT 吸收数十万枚 BTC,问题在于机构资本究竟会稳定市场,还是会进一步加剧市场复杂化。
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ETF 模式的支持者认为,机构投资有助于降低波动性。像贝莱德这样的受监管机构参与后,比特币将变得更具流动性、更透明、更能抵御异常波动。
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贝莱德也明确表示,更广泛的参与能改善价格发现、加深市场流动性,并最终促成更稳定的交易环境。2 `) v, l9 g# d/ W2 Q& L. J
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但批评者(包括部分学者)警告,大规模机构参与会将传统市场风险带入比特币:如杠杆交易、算法触发的闪崩,以及通过 ETF 流量进行的价格操控。. N% ?1 Z" ?9 L
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换句话说,比特币的金融化可能是用另一种波动(系统性、杠杆驱动风险)替代了原本的散户驱动 FOMO。而且,随着 ETF 影响力增加,比特币可能与其他金融资产的相关性增强,削弱其“非相关性对冲”的价值。
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当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 13628 小时
本月在线: 18 小时
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当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 19577 小时
本月在线: 25 小时
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当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 18268 小时
本月在线: 6 小时
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当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 212 小时
本月在线: 5 小时
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贝莱德这下是真敢下注,看来对比特币的信心不是闹着玩的。 |
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当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 10377 小时
本月在线: 12 小时
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当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 6130 小时
本月在线: 4 小时
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当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 3027 小时
本月在线: 10 小时
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