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[lastpost] => 2774971 比特币的看跌势头和期权市场:2025 年第三季度资本重新配置的情绪驱动分析(转) 1760890935 小钱儿
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9 Y7 F9 c+ N* ^ b5 F9月14日晚间,比特币、以太币等加密货币集体跳水下跌。截至22:19,狗狗币下跌5.24%,瑞波币下跌3.34%,以太币下跌1.41%,比特币下跌0.36%。9 `) k& @8 R* E
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Coinglass网站数据显示,过去24小时内,虚拟货币共有超12万人爆仓。
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消息面上,据央视新闻报道,美联储将于当地时间9月16日至17日召开货币政策会议,9月18日,美联储将公布利率决议。CME“美联储观察”的数据显示,美联储9月降息25个基点的概率为92%,降息50个基点的概率为8%。
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. ?; t, T" B# M! c( B O( a- B) e- @ 据央视新闻报道,当地时间9月11日,美国劳工统计局公布的数据显示,美国8月消费者价格指数(CPI)环比增长0.4%,经季节性调整前同比增长2.9%。当月,剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格后,核心CPI环比增长0.3%,经季节性调整前同比增长3.1%。0 u/ m% G5 [( Y8 d+ Z& e
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0 R+ y9 w2 }7 o3 k8 O" t/ Z% }$ Y 尽管美国8月CPI基本符合预期,但初请失业金数据意外爆冷。美国劳工统计局9月11日公布的数据显示,截至9月6日当周,初请失业金人数增加2.7万人至26.3万人,为2021年10月以来最高,高于前值23.6万人和预期值23.5万人。
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在CPI和初请失业金数据公布后,10年期美债收益率跌破4%大关,美元指数走低,美股再创新高。+ ]0 t% ]% ~" x' w, a6 T( _9 I. n
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随着初请失业金人数跃升至近四年高位,美联储货币政策重心进一步倾向就业。这巩固了美联储降息预期,市场充分消化了美联储年底前降息三次的情景,这意味着美联储或将在今年余下的每次会议上都进行降息。/ O5 W4 G! K0 N( ^) I7 M* z
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尽管市场普遍预期美联储年内将降息3次(每次25个基点),但客观来看,这一预期仍存在过度乐观的风险。董忠云提醒,若未来因关税传导、供应链调整等供给侧因素推升通胀,叠加降息操作的刺激作用,导致美国通胀出现超预期反弹,则美联储货币政策的宽松幅度可能不及市场预期,甚至不排除放缓降息节奏或暂停降息的可能。进一步来看,若降息后对美国就业的提振效果有限,同时通胀在供需双重作用下再度抬头,美国或将面临经济放缓与通胀居高并存的“类滞胀”风险。一旦出现此类情形,美联储的政策空间将显著收窄,市场也可能迎来更大波动。0 i" U, ~! n# x- @' Z
7 Q8 Z" m4 ?7 |5 R* `! Y 未来仍暗礁密布,尽管9月降息已经板上钉钉,但在数据依赖模式下,9月之后的货币政策路径仍未成定数。7 }) r& a% x4 ?1 f
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今晚比特币跳水,一夜12万人爆仓,又是惊心动魄的加密货币大戏啊 |
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卧槽这波血洗太狠了,爆仓的兄弟们今晚怕是要睡不着了 |
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