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比特币（BTC）本週再度陷入剧烈洗盘，仅一天就有高达4,056万美元的多头部位被强制平仓，突显市场在多项重要宏观事件前情绪相当紧绷。儘管美国通膨数据略显降温，加上机构资金重新释出乐观讯号，全球最大加密货币目前仍仅小幅下跌，价格徘徊在约111,546美元附近。 1 E$ g& X, e9 [! u8 _, T
; b* X U4 N* Q4 j7 N$ H; |4 E
) a8 L9 W% e) }' v3 a' {最大的强平发生在约111,000美元附近的多单，因为比特币未能突破114,000美元的上方压力。这波被迫卖出引发短线盘整，也同步降低槓杆，清理掉市场中过度的投机部位。虽然这种洗盘过程令交易者吃足苦头，但一旦动能重新整理完毕，往往有助于形成更稳健的回升基础。 根据Coinglass数据，清算规模最大的是以太坊（ETH），高达4,440万美元，其次则是比特币约4,050万美元，再次凸显主流资产在槓杆市场中的主导地位。 机构与监管面助攻儘管近期出现回调，比特币的长期前景依旧受机构与监管利多支撑。欧盟根据MiCA法规批准瑞士比特币应用程式Relai，就是加密资产逐步融入传统金融体系的重要里程碑之一。 取得MiCA牌照后，Relai现已能提供受监管的比特币投资服务、支援SEPA支付，并向欧盟客户扩大交易渠道。这项进展有望大幅推动欧洲散户与机构的加密採用率。 同时，摩根大通允许客户以比特币与以太坊作为抵押进行贷款的政策，也再度强化加密资产在传统金融体系中的正当性。该银行将透过第三方託管方持有抵押的加密资产，让投资者在不卖出持仓的前提下取得合规流动性。分析师认为，这将成为比特币金融用途与机构需求的长线利多因素。 比特币技术分析：三角形即将迎来突破技术面来看，比特币目前陷入一个对称三角形区间，而这通常意味着价格即将出现明显的方向选择。4小时图显示，上升趋势线支撑位约在109,700美元，下行压力则在约114,100美元，形成相当紧缩的整理结构。 20日EMA（110,300 美元）上穿50日EMA（110,200 美元），显示上行动能可能正在酝酿，而RSI位于 60，反映市场情绪改善但尚未进入超买区。近期 K 线型态包含十字星与多头吞噬等，也都释放出买盘增强的信号。 若 BTC 能成功收在114,100美元上方，下一阶段目标有望落在117,000–120,000美元区间，进一步则可能挑战125,000美元。不过若跌破111,000美元，价格可能回测109,700–106,700美元区间，而长线结构仍算稳健。 展望：从清算恐慌走向修復期虽然4,000多万美元的清算让槓杆部位遭受重击，但监管明朗化、机构抵押借贷扩张，以及通膨数据降温等基本面利多，仍支撑比特币中期回升前景。若多头能在放量下重新站稳114,000美元，第四季上看120,000–125,000美元的反弹行情仍相当可期。 随着槓杆风险出清、机构资金深化佈局，目前的盘整可能正是比特币下一波大突破前的平静阶段。 Bitcoin Hyper：比特币在Solana上的下一阶段进化？
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