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[体育菠菜心得方法] 再论赔率统计 --新手胡说八道
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1#
以威廉为标准，只统计 英超，西甲，意甲
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只跟踪一个联赛
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/ t2 w+ X3 Q0 v0 T全塞季  分别买 主胜，  平，   负赔0 S  {9 M7 v' e: ?  `1 Y3 v( `5 q' x

8 \9 S% |: B6 [三条线  ，三年统计结果  全部亏水钱，积少成多也不少啊 ，最后收益差别不大，6 V' u* g! k3 f6 l2 ~* e6 W9 K

2 w; }, Z0 g& c" R0 O! l偶尔年份  平或 负赔会高一点。- h6 D8 X0 Y2 |. M

1 ^8 Y: V# J$ L, u  h) I! Y方法：  全程跟踪一个联赛，一个塞季， 只买一边， 主胜 或负赔（平局出现相对概率要少）
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然后通过基本面或盘赔特征，排除一部分球赛， 最后你买的那边胜率就会增高， 只需要增高一点，
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: {. a  \6 [3 d% u9 O  n2 \) b9 q0 {就可以做到 一边持平或赚水钱，  然后就是不断累积经验，多排除一些球赛，多赚一点水钱4 D8 [7 i5 k6 o# P- ~4 V

* n; J9 c% q0 N- J8 i$ P当经验积累到一定程度， 足球就成了一种长期投资 项目7 K9 D# d' V; h$ [

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亚盘没有统计，想当然，  低水胜出概率高点，  让盘方胜出概率高点，只有两个方向容易判断，
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6 }2 B8 `* |# N5 F- s而且亚盘返还率要高一点， 选低水+让球方，一个联赛一个赛季全程跟踪，开始肯定输水钱，8 Q: ?. F- d3 A- Y; ~) a) w8 Z

5 |5 {9 n/ Q; @9 R, Q7 u但是只要累计经验去排除一些明显打不出来的球赛就可以了，就可以把水钱赚回来。
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) r* C* s8 J9 M8 T. v! g理论依据： 只买一边 ，一定不会让你亏多少，因为大联赛大庄都是平衡的，一个联赛一个赛季一定平衡。3 B& |; w' Y; B; r

5 x0 R& O& _( V) M4 r排除比选择要容易积累经验， 而且学习排除法 那些不可能出现  ，比那些可能出现 要容易判断

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2#
以上的方法 是不可能赚多少钱的，
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+ m( p# i& l3 x! Q0 \, t! A但是每个赛季 5-10%， 是可以做到的，
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这比买国债存银行合算。
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在DC赚大钱的人，都是用高风险去博高收益，风险大利润才高，
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! R. o% U4 X8 }, r几次发现十几倍的负赔，就是不敢去，买了平，这就是人性。  s) l( p4 {# s1 j+ v1 q& _- O
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/ D! Z2 M, f/ b5 ~常胜的人收益一定不会高到那里去。
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放弃一夜暴富，放弃神奇的方法， 放弃高的胜率，
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就是回避了大的亏损，
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+ Z2 a, t# T1 A. G7 q大亏，小亏，小赢，大赢，  DC就这四种结果，$ |) m# j+ `6 y# u9 G% N4 O
% [3 W2 I5 K  r# G( W: h
回避了大亏，用经验避免小亏，就只剩下 赢了。

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顶起再慢慢看

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