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[体育菠菜心得方法] 再论赔率统计 --新手胡说八道
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1#
以威廉为标准，只统计 英超，西甲，意甲
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- w5 D% c# F, N8 B- f4 U" l+ ?) T, q$ U只跟踪一个联赛. q. C  S7 F* B0 Y- j6 F

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7 g! `- J0 R1 n全塞季  分别买 主胜，  平，   负赔; k) r. l# j+ z# C! ~( N. i- ~

3 M! t, B. G) x* ?+ S: J' {0 t4 ^5 p三条线  ，三年统计结果  全部亏水钱，积少成多也不少啊 ，最后收益差别不大，
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偶尔年份  平或 负赔会高一点。& s: U/ U+ g, w0 d

; w- V& E, S  e. Q1 K% z方法：  全程跟踪一个联赛，一个塞季， 只买一边， 主胜 或负赔（平局出现相对概率要少）
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9 ]% C* Y$ [3 }: O) t+ h( ?, C然后通过基本面或盘赔特征，排除一部分球赛， 最后你买的那边胜率就会增高， 只需要增高一点，
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就可以做到 一边持平或赚水钱，  然后就是不断累积经验，多排除一些球赛，多赚一点水钱% [, F5 l8 c2 U" T: w& @/ E8 T" F
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当经验积累到一定程度， 足球就成了一种长期投资 项目
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亚盘没有统计，想当然，  低水胜出概率高点，  让盘方胜出概率高点，只有两个方向容易判断，
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  T8 M% S" i( J7 n而且亚盘返还率要高一点， 选低水+让球方，一个联赛一个赛季全程跟踪，开始肯定输水钱，
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# I4 Z+ k/ N6 s5 {5 g* n但是只要累计经验去排除一些明显打不出来的球赛就可以了，就可以把水钱赚回来。
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1 t' `2 A  _) v5 B理论依据： 只买一边 ，一定不会让你亏多少，因为大联赛大庄都是平衡的，一个联赛一个赛季一定平衡。
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4 n. m0 _, S& g( ~8 W  n排除比选择要容易积累经验， 而且学习排除法 那些不可能出现  ，比那些可能出现 要容易判断

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2#
以上的方法 是不可能赚多少钱的，8 T6 q/ @/ M% C3 ^5 D# }4 r6 H4 q

: k$ a) y7 d3 f  c但是每个赛季 5-10%， 是可以做到的，- k2 w2 I1 Q  C  ]% ^3 z+ v
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这比买国债存银行合算。9 C, e3 {5 w2 j, S' l( U
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在DC赚大钱的人，都是用高风险去博高收益，风险大利润才高，
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( P1 ]( c" w5 ?4 z' T几次发现十几倍的负赔，就是不敢去，买了平，这就是人性。2 w3 j+ ^- k7 F6 l6 ?
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常胜的人收益一定不会高到那里去。
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放弃一夜暴富，放弃神奇的方法， 放弃高的胜率，
  t% f# A8 m& p) ?% ]) D. u2 F. L5 y/ ^! y- e5 C1 d$ q
就是回避了大的亏损，
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大亏，小亏，小赢，大赢，  DC就这四种结果，( g0 T/ Y6 E" z, }0 }% J
  B- U  b+ C1 r7 b% N7 ]" _6 R0 z6 ?
回避了大亏，用经验避免小亏，就只剩下 赢了。

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顶起再慢慢看

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