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[体育菠菜心得方法] 欧赔和亚盘的理解(1)
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在网上和论坛上看过很多人对欧赔的解释和理解,说实在的,个人坚决不认同!欧赔虽然从理论上来说反映的是对比赛结果概率上的预期,但事实上,欧赔和概率无关,真正欧赔的意义是菠菜公司对最后的实际赛果的数字性描述,也就是说,欧赔里面包含了最后的赛果,如果你看懂了的话。要想看懂欧赔,首先我们要了解欧赔。就欧赔来说,它本身就是个数字体系,也就是说,它是一种固定的组合模式,菠菜公司是在固定的模式基础上根据具体的比赛双方的实际情况或者自己对赛果的把握来适当进行变化和调整,最后形成可接受投注的受注赔率。
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, j/ m9 ^  B* S; |现在我以主队总为上盘来具体一个个解释对欧赔的判断分析:赔率区间如果菠菜公司根据对实力的分析判断之后,认为主队的赔率在不同的区间,则和局的客队的赔率正常区间也是一定的,这样的区间是可以分类的,如下:
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$ g* w! C& x; |/ v3 ^5 @) \如果主队区间2.50以上 则和局3.00-3.20 客胜 2.50-2.806 x6 M) W4 g2 D0 t0 Q
如果主队区间2.00-2.50 则和局3.00-3.20 客胜 2.60-3.50  k" |4 T& g- E* W; U/ |! d
如果主队区间1.75-2.00 则和局3.00-3.50客胜 3.50-4.50' o0 u) l, h3 a* v2 ]' N% O6 W
如果主队区间1.50-1.75 则和局3.20-4.00 客胜 3.80-6.509 Q$ o2 |! |( J$ A
如果主队区间1.30-1.50 则和局3.50-5.50 客胜 5.00-7.50
/ u% f$ B" D) W( J" N7 b/ J  I如果主队区间1.15-1.30 则和局4.00-6.00 客胜 6.50-12.000 e" ^5 J" ]0 e3 A( @* D7 m
如果主队区间1.15以下 则和局4.50-6.00 客胜10.00以上
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$ H5 y0 c2 k7 ]8 q/ }对这个区间怎么理解呢? - z( u% r0 g( j
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1、如果三个赔率都在正常的区间范围内,则越接近本赔率高限的赔率结果出现的可能性就低,比如说这样的一组赔率2.40 3.10 2.80,如果仅仅只看赔率本身而不考虑其它因子,这个赔率组合对主胜的支持力度相对较小。 5 X* _0 p- l2 {: h; l

/ O% l# y. X+ C5 S& Z2、如果三个赔率组合中有某个赔率高出了正常的区间范围,则表示对这种赛果的否定,比如说:1.80 3.30 5.50,这个组合中我们可以看到客胜完全超出了本身应该的3.50-4.50的区间,因此我们可以否定客胜出现的可能。 3、如果三个赔率组合中有两个赔率高出了本身的范围,则最后的赛果将会是高出的这两个赔率中的一个结果,比如说:1.60 4.50 7.00,这个组合中和局客胜都高出正常的区域,盘口信息明显指向主队将获得胜利,但菠菜公司从来不会这么善意的表达自己的意图,因此主胜不可信。以上这三点是对欧赔组合区间的基本判断,但在实际的过程中并不能这样生搬硬套,这样判断的前提条件是赔率在合理的情况下。赔率的合理性赔率是否合理,这也是判断欧赔的关键问题,如果赔率的组合是合理的,则基本是可以根据上面说的三点对组合进行判断,但如果赔率本身就是不合理的,那就不能按照这样的赔率分析模式来进行分析,比如说:1.65 3.20 3.90 如果从这个组合来看,在这样的主胜下,客胜明显过低,但如果分析两队的实力,主队正常亚盘只能让到平半,也就是说欧赔主胜应该是在2.00-2.50区间的,那这样的组合就不能按照上面的分析来判断,而应该是主队的赔率明显低开,更支持主队获得胜利。那怎么判断赔率的合理性呢?赔率的合理性是要结合球队的实力来进行分析和判断,这里说的球队的实力并不是指球员教练和队名,我指的是: 1、最近五场的表现和主客场的成绩 2、两队过往交手成绩
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3、联赛的排名
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4、球队的名气 6 E( T6 L  M& ?. x' Y# [
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5、历史盘口4 }- h% ^+ e4 u5 w- o) h
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在这里,我要强调的是你不需要去了解什么球星教练伤病之类的,至于为什么,我说了大家必然要争论一番,但事实上这些因素都不是影响最终赛果的决定因素,也不是决定两队实力分析的决定因素。9 r9 j# H& o% g2 b
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对于上面所说的五点,基本上按照上述的排序来对实力进行分析,如果两队的前四项都比较正常,则第五项过去历史盘口就可以成为参照本场比赛的重要依据,而如果某一个队在前面四项中出现偏弱,则本场盘口应在历史盘口的基础上相应的变动,或者亚盘在相同历史盘口下处于低水位置,如果没有的话,其实对另一个队并不有利
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