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[虚拟币交流]
Arthur Hayes：美国联准会仍会回归量化宽松！加密货币成救命稻草（转载）
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加密货币衍生品交易所BitMEX共同创办人Arthur Hayes，时常撰文畅谈有关加密货币
( d! H) W# X2 S) ?的市场概况，其精辟入里的观点备受许多读者关注，而近日他再次发布长文《Kite or Board》，文中痛批联准会
( ^/ S# g' ]/ I9 u+ G8 }) l' J- X的政策方向注定会失败。
8 z% n/ v2 O3 K# O. Z9 U批评联准会提油救火
- g) f$ {% C, @9 `$ R2 LArthur Hayes指出联准会试图通过提高利率来抑制通货膨涨，但又同时通过缩减资产负债表来回收流动性。然3 X; a4 i$ I, T1 x
而，加息会导致美国ZF支付更多的债务利息，其实等于对有钱人提供了另一种财政刺激，而缩表会直接从银行' q, }' O4 f, o; [' `9 L
体系中回收资金，这两种政策的影响可能相互抵消，此举无疑是美国ZF在「割肉来治疗疮疤」。
7 Z5 t% X3 ^& l3 ]$ _# x hHayes提到1980年代的美国是可以这么做的，因为据统计数据显示，1980年美国债务占GDP的比例为30%。而今
v6 N7 Q0 O, d1 X天，这个比例高达118%，这意味着当初的ZF开始收紧货币供应并且让利率飙升时，美国ZF的财政状况并未受
! H& H. O$ N9 k到太大影响，因为还没有太多未偿还的债务，如今2023年情况完全相反，现在的债务规模已增加了4倍。
: O) ~% u W% [" o9 p5 ^ EHayes表示截至2023年第二季度，美国财政部按年计算已向债务持有人支付了近1兆美元的利息。从宏观层面来
4 S* V# L6 g) U" T7 g1 W$ j. F9 ?3 C看，很明显随着联准会加息，美国财政部会以利息支付的形式向富人提供刺激。
( h+ k# a9 J- t1 T* x恐重启量化宽松，金融巨头关注加密货币
9 [8 {) r: h$ D" ~& pArthur Hayes在文中邀请一位在联准会的专栏作家，同时也是经济学家的Dr.Charles W.Calormiris分享看法，他
* g- D5 N, L6 s3 I" S o' r4 u指出美国ZF可能在不久后重启量化宽松政策：当债券市场开始相信ZF的有息债务已超出可行性的上限时，政
% Y8 s. I- }0 m- V府的下一次债券拍卖会有一个意义上「失败」，即市场对ZF信任不足，对新债券发行的利率需求越来越高，最
( Y2 M7 k- j, [8 M3 H终ZF撤回了发行，并将「印钞」作为替代方案。" G% C: l/ a8 v8 y% F
Calormiris警告：重启量化宽松后，整个金融体系会发生剧烈变化、Arthur Hayes也补充提到「金融脱媒」，由
3 k. M+ o. N/ J, D1 @8 p于全球又会因降息再一次面临低迷的收益率，所有资金将从银行体系流向其他替代渠道，银行和资产管理公司会
$ y( O/ b5 R* z7 ~. v( I, K' E突然热衷于加密货币，因为知道ZF正在争夺他们的存款基础，确保自己持有唯一可用的通膨解药，就是加密货
7 v( F! K/ B3 @9 o2 y9 x! A币。
4 ]4 p7 j# Q( Q; w! L/ a( |2 N6 N2 s$ }5 _4 w+ Y1 b) ~: U
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