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[虚拟币交流]
方舟投资：比特币牛市短期内不会发生！宏观经济对风险资产不利（转载）
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不少人推测加密货币市场已进入熊市底部，或可以在近期建仓等待反涨。但女股神
) A1 X) n! V2 r& N+ k L% zCathie Wood旗下投资管理公司方舟投资(ARK Invest)于近日发布的比特币8月分析报告指出，多项宏观经济数据
$ y' |$ m9 F+ V; M, O R! K/ d8 G表明短期加密货币市场恐将下跌，前景不容乐观..
6 M; k$ m( F; K- Y长期看涨比特币？短期看跌？
9 A9 P! C0 S% n$ R; W尽管方舟投资近期研究指出，比特币和人工智能的整合将能有效提高企业生产力、降低成本，会是未来的乐观看
& K6 W Z: m; s2 |涨信号，但考虑到近期宏观经济数据，比特币牛市的发展恐不会在短期内发生。
- ^$ K$ N7 O' t0 x5 t5 }据研究报告，方舟投资列举了加密货币前景不太乐观的几大原因，其一是自然利率与实际联邦基金政策利率的变) g& i4 {( }* ~
化。随着通货膨胀持续放缓，将推高实际联邦基金政策利率并扩大与自然利率之间的差距，该指标对宏观经济影$ _# C2 B2 t- z( i! s4 `' \
响相对悲观。/ s" S6 ~2 A2 t. T5 }
另分析师也关注到GDP(国内生产毛额)和GDI(国内生产收入)之间的差异。据报告指出，GDP和GDI应紧密结合，
# n/ U) Y( o& S* Q) y0 x( `( F因为赚取的收入应等于所生产的商品和服务的价值。然而，最新数据显示，GDP比GDI高出约3%，这表明生产数
& h* P1 v1 e4 ?4 g7 I7 w+ R据的向下修正是可以预期的。 N- A( a+ U5 y5 K
除此之外，美国ZF已连续六个月下调就业数据，突显了劳动力市场的疲软。而上一次连续六个月向下修正是在
; P4 g- {5 w w+ T4 S4 D1 P/ y, h* o2007年，也就是金融危机爆发之前，这一事实也值得注意。0 P( N( x" }1 H6 q! N, j8 }- d+ }
宏观经济情况可能对风险资产不利' a$ k. u {' S9 m/ Y# `
另该报告还引用了Johnson Redbook Index(红皮书同店零售销售指数)，数据指出8月份同店销售总额出现12个$ h( U, A! x9 K' r& v' ^ a
月以来的首次反弹，这表明通膨正在上升，ZF可能会施加上行压力。) }+ h6 b, x) @$ w2 ?3 K
上述指标或也表明，当前的宏观经济不确定性可能在未来几个月继续存在。然而，我们无法确定若经济增长放缓+ i/ \' \- H2 ^2 V
和通膨上升，加密市场会如何反应，但这种情况通常被认为对风险资产非常不利。) I3 H8 Y3 m9 i3 T/ f1 X
值得一提的是，方舟投资与加密货币交易所产品发行商21Shares曾共同合推比特币现货ETF，但美国证券交易委+ m0 t/ F R4 f+ S/ i3 o
员会(SEC)于今年8月延长了审查时间。对此，Cathie Wood认为，SEC最终势必会通过现货ETF，但时间会落在灰4 h! c6 Y: {% _ ~1 \6 |2 A
度赢得与SEC的诉讼后。
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牛市或者熊市不是好预测的，还是尽量预测出短期走势吧，如果你想短抄的话 |
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