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[打法交流]
百家乐高手玩家的内功心法:凯利注码法(凯利缆)(转载)
[复制链接]
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有许多会算优势的博友问我,如何控制震荡?要准备多少资金?要下多大的注?要多久能回报?
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2 o1 ^. z/ s6 R* ]2 a6 T8 t! w/ |会问我这些问题,表示功力不到家!只会算EV确不会管理资金,只知其然却不知其所以然。* x% y1 K% |' ?: m: W8 K( g
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其实优势玩家的资金管理,不是经济学、不是统计学、更不是管理学、而是数学!!!! }) d# `+ P! a3 M9 ]
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首先,我问一个很简单的问题,有什么注码法,能让你就算一直输,也永远不会破产?/ c+ d! r8 Y1 W( o% T
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请思考1分钟,再来看下面的答案。+ a6 t6 r% ?/ f( C1 u. A6 F5 q, o
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答案就是用比例下注,就永远不会破产!
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6 e; g' K& \/ Z) S例如:我每次都下我总资金的10%,如果输了,我就下剩下的90%的10%,那么不管我输多少次,我始终都留下我上次下注之前的90%,永远都还会剩下钱。5 d$ w) Z5 h; {' ~) ~% [
" O! Y3 R/ | u l t; j0 [现在的问题就是,到底要下总资本的百分之几最好?9 }5 Z- R+ F) ~& f; g7 f G. ~3 t
& {4 |- Z9 d+ o ^我们先来看一个0和的游戏。9 i _, [& n- ]1 y _* w
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玩2手,输一次赢一次,我用10%下注,不管先输(剩下90%,再下10%也就是90%*10%=9%)再赢(90%+9%),还是先赢(剩下110%,再下110%的10%=11%)再输(110%-11%),都是剩下99%,公式是(1+10%)*(1-10%)=99% 损失了1%的本金!: |, W$ q! H3 ~) Y
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玩200手,输100次赢100次,用10%下注,(1+10%)^100 * (1-10%)^100=36.6% 损失了65.4%的本金!玩越多手,输的越多。7 }; r8 R) M" S$ P
- P( H* r5 [1 C) b" k3 [. d' O& k这个实验说明,使用永远不会破产的注码,虽然永远也输不完,但是就算玩一个不输不赢的游戏,也会一直越输越多。( g( N& ~$ c- ^6 W
% F+ g7 |/ i. D6 Z# D: o接下来,大家都知道我们玩一个+EV的游戏,赢的会比输的多,+1%的游戏,就是200手里面赢101手输99手的意思,那么如果用我们永远不会破产的注码来打,会不会赚钱呢?
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% D% ?9 C: I1 N4 Q玩200手,输99次赢101次,用10%下注,(1+10%)^101 * (1-10%)^99=44.7373% 比0和的好点,但是依然不会赢。9 K# r9 l" Y5 }* ]* ]& i# F# D6 a
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再来看看如果下5%,(1+5%)^101 * (1-5%)^99=86.051% 比下10%好多了。, v( h/ K7 d( f
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如果下1%呢?(1+1%)^101 * (1-1%)^99=101.005% 终于发现能永远不会破产又赚钱的地方了。
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但是这真的是最好的吗?我帮大家节省时间,我直接把下注的比例跟获利结果,用表格的形式拉出来。, }: V. R e1 }% h3 j
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下注比例 本金结果, a' _ c% `+ F5 Z, l6 A
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0.1% 1.001902& ], ^4 g) ]% O+ a( W+ o1 i
. B9 w7 `$ z" i. n6 z: b' G; j0.2% 1.003606
7 r) O" H3 c) K' s0 O D }' e! M6 M) W; g
0.3% 1.005113% [& _) y$ I, r( } |7 I% p& c
" n( T8 g, E- {# m7 V
0.4% 1.006421
; S$ ?, q @) m" o/ w
- q" Z8 _+ s3 `" S0.5% 1.0075287 f, X3 t$ r$ Y( v
$ l- U, ]; |2 ~' n d8 W
0.6% 1.008435: C$ l4 d! q; Q- h, p( @, X
1 y, O( W: Z7 G
0.7% 1.0091425 p& T6 k* _5 W9 M( q+ l
5 `5 A, ?2 H6 @" ~4 }0.8% 1.009646# i2 D% D/ J9 K& k& H( `
& f% f- s' W4 d, \: B0.9% 1.009949
; p; {2 e1 d, y. E1 _* o& t& t# F) }0 F' O( W. o
1.0% 1.01005
9 |- a0 c9 L k# \+ t7 \4 ^7 c6 L9 E& @( P9 {, I! u
1.1% 1.009949
6 T( p3 b2 z; Q, m1 {) |" d, j+ N! C4 y0 O4 t0 V
1.2% 1.0096468 p: Y- g3 e$ x; n3 |4 q3 L
! k' U# _* P- C) s' b, r5 G1.3% 1.0091422 t; T4 z+ a5 W; w
" j2 Z$ `. d0 F7 e$ ~
1.4% 1.008435) }1 y# b+ R0 G" {2 o2 k
+ k0 b; i# n2 [1.5% 1.007528
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1.6% 1.00642
; X$ z. c: N: m! e- [% D; ]1 M5 V
1.7% 1.005112
. Z( k" ~7 |" m; J* r
; {4 R. K7 g0 T- g6 Q1.8% 1.0036053 r4 z/ H8 P8 o7 N) q, o5 k; T
, ^' K' `0 g5 _6 C
1.9% 1.00190 q8 K. v' V A- H. K# [' L
: n" {" _9 c+ _2 [; }* M6 C
2.0% 0.999997
4 y; L3 j2 w9 C. d6 e5 }! Y* K
, X9 d' w/ A) W& [- V% m2.1% 0.997899" F/ i: V$ b- }% ?1 J
! {3 C) n$ D1 R' u- i. `' F2.2% 0.995605# K1 D! ?$ G7 X+ P1 u! l$ t/ a6 W
; B" l5 x( w d8 X7 X( _$ @2.3% 0.993118
3 y& `; k2 B4 C3 m, z& B2 R }# [/ ?% Z) X
2.4% 0.9904399 |' M& b$ t) v8 J- u4 N* u* U2 Y' R
; i% G5 X" ^, M% \# _2.5% 0.987569
1 f: p* T2 m0 }# W5 d7 \8 N
4 K! p H4 m) R3 a3 M* d+ y; B, b2.6% 0.984517 W; Q9 S% c0 S" ~2 \9 C
) W2 j, m) S! F1 l! W2 Q
2.7% 0.981264& X3 m; C8 ?0 c% J2 n
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2.8% 0.9778330 w* ]2 E- b* O/ z+ A
9 h% D2 q; R M( ?2.9% 0.9742193 E9 U4 _2 r' D2 ^9 w( M* m
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3.0% 0.9704244 y# z- d7 p+ J
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从上表可以得到一些结论:3 g( c% t4 P4 w$ |
3 e; k# r0 s) T, t. A4 w Q) @1. 面对赢101次输99次EV+1%的游戏来说,下注在0%以上2%以下,才会有获利
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, c; t1 Q9 E' M( q8 K. N$ M2. 面对赢101次输99次EV+1%的游戏来说,注码在1%的时候,得到的获利是最高的,下的越小赚的越少,下的越大也赚的越少!
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3. 每一次下注之后都要精准的计算剩下的资金,严格按照比例下注,过多过少只要不够准确,都会降低收益,名副其实的刀尖上的舞蹈
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/ ^3 E: }0 \9 f& G4 y凯利这个人,其实只是按照这个原理去推演,发现EV+1%的时候要下本金的1%、EV+2%的时候要下本金的2%..." C9 ?! A* ]' \) V
( e m' w% ^! w! b f然而凯利所计算的只是一赔一的条件,其实根据不同赌戏的赔率不同,其实不尽然都是跟EV相同的,但是如果各位自己制作一个简单的excel表,那么自己也可以拉的出来最适合的注码比例。9 {& g4 t! ^/ L. P
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以上,希望我能对不懂下注策略的初学优势的博友玩家有所帮助。) y- O! @8 ?, t7 u0 F
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