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[1754] => 虚拟币存提
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[lastpost] => 2649854 上了当,买垃圾币 直接挂壁30% 1715720549 hangaibing
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当前离线
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总在线: 12065 小时
本月在线: 23 小时
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首先回顾下本周发生的事情:熊:美国ZF开始将其查获的暗网电商丝绸之路的
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总计30174枚比特币转向了交易所,相关人士认为这是抛售的前兆,因此带来了恐慌,1 ^ r; p0 n) R& L
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方舟基金,灰度基金都抛售了比特币。这导致币比特币一度跌到64500附近。
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牛:(1)Fidelity,Blackrock都在持续增持比特币,其中blackroak增持3100枚,
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Fidelity增持1100枚(2)神秘地址以100枚为单位疯狂购入比特币,越跌越买,四天
8 K+ `2 {% Z( [3 `" X+ j/ T: D D, p) J
内抄底2170枚。个人猜测可能是某国ZF在买入,如果未来的有一天,某个国家ZF$ A5 j% U, O/ C. _" B
" O! B: G' y+ K p$ j+ w2 j宣布其持续买入比特币,可能就是准备抛售,见大顶的时候(3)usdt4天内增发30亿
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枚,在过去的日子,以周为单位,USDT增发都会带来币价大涨聊完了新闻,我们回到& X7 |9 D; V7 T* X
- b5 S _; m5 y- D4 ^k线。首先看比特币:从日线上看,比特币在两个红色矩形之间(60000,72000)形成' l7 P4 s7 a0 F3 a% k# X# H, e
& o* g, p5 x0 }/ \2 K震荡,振幅逐步收窄,很快就要选择出方向。考虑HSEMA9逐步逼近蓝色EMA18,死( J' k+ P$ F( _; M$ e9 y
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叉一旦形成,上涨趋势会被破环,比特币将测试下方红色矩形6万的位置。因此,为了' o1 n# _$ _: U! M8 D
8 F8 q1 W7 c( W! |2 r避免死叉的形成,比特币需要快速反弹。反弹只有突破绿色区间71300的位置才可以确
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% A# R! E* Q' `% @8 W定一个更高的高点,从而走出下降趋势。如果无法站稳71300,再次测试60000只是时
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间问题。如果6万不保,下方HS矩形是大支撑,也就是53000~50000的区间。个人认8 f# M) p3 H3 |/ J% O
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为这是最坏的情况,不认可一些人认为去3万。
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0 p2 e3 T5 M; t1 J从4小时来看基本和日线一致,无需赘述。不过4小时的EMA200形成了一个比较强的支撑
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8 ?6 c' w1 R O% z,已经测试4次进行了反弹。本人也多次在EMA200做多吃到了短线涨幅。但考虑一个支撑
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+ I7 V& S5 \, @位被多次测试,那么其跌破的概率就越来越多。因此,如果比特币不能快速收复73100,. g" o* a- m1 A' X4 r6 `
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EMA200跌破只是时间问题,下一步就看60000的表现。3 @' u1 |3 U. Q( \6 G
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考虑美股连涨5个月有短期见顶的信号,结合美国可能抛售的3万枚比特币。本人近期看空,. T& d, \) W- k; y- l7 G
8 T" x( N0 r! x2 T' B, F4 `认为比特币至少会去次6万。8 l8 o1 s u1 o/ b+ x. @9 ]
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( g7 Q, `" Z/ W' ` e4 z3 o
抛售量这个也是很多的了吧 |
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