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[lastpost] => 2647265 台湾媒体60万粉丝YouTube频道“即新闻”被骇 以瑞波名义放入假空投钓鱼连结(转) 1714814284 南相楚
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每经AI快讯,4月8日,比特币重回72000美元上方,加密货币概念股普涨,MicroStrategy涨超11%,Coinbase涨近6%,Marathon Digital涨近4%。黄金突破2300美元关口,创历史新高,进入3月份黄金更是气势如虹。" q; ]+ }8 D+ B+ H
美联储加息、缩表两年时间,目前依然维持高利率环境,在此背景下很早之前市场就担心经济会出现衰退,但2023年开始,本来高利率利空压制的美股、黄金、比特币纷纷上涨,甚至创出历史新高。美国经济非但没有衰退,反倒是数据越发亮眼,以至于通胀极其顽固。$ p: O# _+ B$ v! F+ g8 J5 w
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本来市场预期的降息从3月份推迟到5月,现在5月份也几乎可以肯定不会降息了,甚至6月降息的概率也大幅下降。
& Q/ P5 U0 P' c3 {" g$ e& o+ A- }8 Z6 s" x, C' S g7 a
美联储主席鲍威尔最近又发表鹰派言论:4月4日美联储主席鲍威尔表示,最近的数据没有实质性改变整体情况;在对降通胀信心增强之前不打算降息;美联储有时间让将发布的经济数据来指导决策;美联储正逐次会议地决定FOMC的货币政策;风险仍然朝着更加平衡的状态靠拢;美联储尚未完成“持续地重塑2%通胀”这一目标。
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) v+ v9 ~- T: J9 E% N$ F% M: G按照一般的理论,降息预期减弱,美股、黄金应该承压,但美股依然坚挺、黄金也极速上涨突破历史新高。) M5 B" G; Z7 D! n( E, M. {
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市场一定是不会错的,自古“盛世古董、乱世黄金”,黄金是发达市场的“衰退对冲工具”,持续大涨说明资本认为市场处于“混乱”中,风险在加大,衰退几率也在加大。
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3 M: e: o9 X. p& Y3 Z以往美联储加息后,刚开始总是“嘴硬”,直到经济衰退、市场大跌才“被迫”降息甚至开启印钞机救市。2 K7 J; ~5 k8 \, l& i8 ~% t: L
; ?" ^& J" I# a' T3 J- o现在联储主席鲍威尔认为美国的经济数据依然强劲,通胀压力还在,经济不大可能会衰退,但市场资金却纷纷涌入黄金避险。+ P. |* K3 Y" d- H
4 B6 D( u" v/ D# B现在即使是美国,金融体系的债务也已经达到天量级别,到处是窟窿,美联储通过各种手段不断的变相的放水掩盖,很多市场数据和指标已经失效了,这时候该相信谁呢?还是相信市场的选择。% B& t; r9 ~& v7 S$ F0 f
9 M3 L/ C/ h6 S1 `对黄金来说,如果出现突然的衰退,可以避险保值,如果后期继续大放水,黄金还能升值。比特币也是相似的逻辑,不过比特币的波动比黄金大,并且更复杂。ETF驱动比特币大涨一轮后,由于短期资金获利了结,长期筹码抛售暂时进入调整阶段。
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7 u; N( ~' Y3 Z3 _* q比特币在2020年3月随着全球资本市场在疫情影响下暴跌,它也出现暴跌。很多人认为它没有避险属性,实际上,并不准确,因为当时黄金也跌了。突发衰退带来的利空,往往第一轮下跌是流动性危机叠加杠杆崩溃带来的,对比特币这种波动大的资产来说,遇到这类危机波动大也正常,随后大放水它又开启大涨的牛市。9 L7 G: r7 w* i5 `: j
' _& C6 S9 s+ U2 q( j# S7 j这也是比特币和黄金不同的地方。/ Y6 _6 w3 q# N4 v6 l2 p3 J
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这是要买下地球的节奏,怪不得马斯克要去火星了。 |
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