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[虚拟币交流]
比特币交易员发出“超买”警告 比特币价格瞄准8.4万美元（转）
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% d3 L7 C' c @3 ^$ B; T7 l 比特币（BTC）在第一季度的最后一个华尔街交易日中有所走高，但比特币价格观点远未确信空头已经失去控制。
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3月31日华尔街开盘时段，比特币价格小幅走高，尽管交易者对短期走势仍持风险规避态度。; K, L$ @7 ~0 r
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比特币相对强弱指数（RSI）暗示跌势或将延续: b- V) E! O0 b% l3 Y
; i d" i( T z Cointelegraph Markets Pro与TradingView数据显示，Bitstamp交易所BTC/USD交易对当日上涨1.5%，最高触及8.3914万美元。
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, f ~3 O( }# g9 J3 S' _ 尽管美股开盘走低，但在季度收盘前的最后几小时，比特币仍迎来期待已久的反弹。4 g1 B# u n6 [! [: V
& `& F3 B" i7 ]! ]0 h# t' b 市场动能持续受4月2日即将生效的美国新关税政策影响，黄金在创下3128美元/盎司历史新高后亦出现回落。
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针对比特币价格走势，多数市场参与者仍持谨慎态度。
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( @$ h0 X. d7 g, z" {* Y3 k 知名交易员Roman在最新X平台分析中针对4小时BTC/USD图表指出：“正在重新测试我们关注的关键84，000美元区域”。他在引用相对强弱指数（RSI）时预测，1 e3 B9 K7 u9 V; i
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价格或将回落至更接近80，000美元关口的水平。& y9 ~8 K( k% u- q6 L5 l2 G3 G
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“从短期框架（LTF）看，随着下行突破和看跌回测完成，我认为价格将开始走低，”Roman补充道，“同时RSI正在回测50中轴，而随机指标已显示超买。更高时间
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( C/ J1 a" ^/ }( N8 V框架（HTF）同样呈现看跌倾向。”
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知名交易分析师Rekt Capital进一步解读RSI信号，指出比特币在突破数月下降趋势线后，正在日线级别回测支撑位。
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' {, G/ n5 O! d1 \2 i: ?0 n! W “$BTC的RSI正试图将下降趋势线转化为支撑位，同时价格走势也面临下降趋势压力，”他向X平台粉丝总结道，“若RSI能成功守住趋势线支撑．．．将显示市场正在0 u( @+ ?3 ?; r0 @, U
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积蓄动能，价格有望突破现行下降通道。” b% i- v* G& B9 q. N
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' B" Y( {( `7 y8 C/ K2 b 早前Cointelegraph报道指出，多项比特币价格指标共同勾勒出当前牛市阶段的疲软态势，暗示回调行情或将延续。- F" R+ c9 v3 M& e+ n
' [& \7 V# t* b( }8 v0 q 与此同时，各预测平台给出的BTC目标价位已下探至6.5万美元，部分模型甚至显示更低预期。5 H, ]. Y% k4 P* t" A1 m2 x, v
0 N# o+ s4 J& j i T0 z 比特币价格分析显现与2024年末相似走势 U+ O; y( `" Q* M
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当前3月及第一季度的整体表现均未达市场预期。
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; {" c0 g; N( a1 m$ N H 监测平台CoinGlass数据显示，在缺乏上行催化剂的背景下，截至发稿时BTC/USD年内累计下跌10.8%，3月单月跌幅达1.1%。4 L# P( ?8 a- @+ Z/ b: K
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该报告特别强调了比特币与美股日益增强的关联性：“尽管市场动荡，但近几周价格走势已在7.8万至8.8万美元区间形成整理格局。值得注意的是，/ B/ |6 g; S0 m% E8 q' U" Q) H# ~7 h
1 i2 u, ]1 Y- ^市场恐慌性抛售迹象正在缓解——反应性卖盘减少，而长期持有者已重启积累模式。”$ t' D9 _" j" O3 x
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