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[lastpost] => 2808814 韩国加密货币交易所监管和内部控制方面存在的更深层次的漏洞。（转） 1771936228 人生如赌
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美股波动性罕见超越新兴市场和比特币，同时一向被视为安全资产的美债剧烈波动，这让投资者开始质疑持有美国资产的明智性。 d/ p/ Y+ d2 Z: A% y
& B m& x$ R6 J瑞银认为，一旦全球无风险利率出现波动，意味着所有市场都将被颠覆。分析师Ed Al-Hussainy更是一针见血地指出：“我其实不担心3 i& J' A, j. I# I& V- g/ y! e0 p
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衰退，我担心的是金融危机。”' L+ Z: f7 v6 d+ H6 o+ k z
美股周五重回涨势，看上去市场风险偏好情绪恢复，但实际上投资者已经开始质疑美国资产的安全性，尤其是美债的剧烈波动，让金$ a. S3 v$ N q/ H
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融危机的恐惧再次笼罩华尔街。
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过去一周，美国10年期国债收益率创下20多年来最大单周跳升，美股则跳水后又暴涨。表面上看，标普500指数周涨超5%，美债收益9 K }8 d9 c1 w2 f
% g8 A! r" n5 ^率回到2月水平，比特币收盘走高，似乎一切如常。
' K; b, S9 X5 W2 m
8 C& U" }$ ~% Y( W然而令人不安的是，本周美股、美债和美元同时下跌的现象，正是典型的新兴市场特征，而非全球最安全资产的表现。尤其本周美国: k5 E) \2 B1 u/ p
# [' D) q/ I' Q5 I
长债出现如此大的波动，流动性危机似乎就在眼前，这让投资者开始质疑持有美国资产的明智性。瑞银集团首席策略师巴努·巴韦贾更
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是表示：
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3 U" ?0 B# G3 p( A: q/ \: N这太可怕了。我们正在重新定义全球无风险利率，如果全球无风险利率出现波动，它将颠覆所有市场。) v; Q* h% W# v
4 n2 t" a& r: h6 S# ?- w! [( e历史罕见，美国资产波动性超越新兴市场和比特币
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特朗普最近的关税政策不仅损害了对美国经济的信心，也动摇了投资者对美国政策方向和美元资产的信任。即使以华尔街漫长的历史
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标准来看，本周都是一个惨烈的交易周，美股像是坐上了过山车，美债美元的走势更是暗示美国避险地位似乎不保了：
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周一，因所谓的乌龙关税消息，美股上演15分钟脉冲式巨震，纳指一度低位暴拉10%，美债跳水。
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# _+ K J3 l# [: H/ t* a1 ?& i周二，不会关税豁免的消息粉碎美股反弹希望，道指盘中高位狂泻超2000点，标普抹平超4%涨幅转跌，美国国债市场则出现去杠杆式大跌。; R5 B n/ I- z& P
+ Z& r$ Z3 f: ?3 ?
周三，美国暂缓部分关税，三大美股指至少收涨近8%，标普创2008年来最大涨幅，美股交易量创下300亿股的历史新高。十年期美债
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7 z' D6 a1 m; W; j& u) u5 L收益率冲高回落。
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周四，全球投资者逃离美国资产，美国股债汇三杀，纳指跌超4%，美元两年来最大日跌，黄金新高。* x$ T4 g% A- g; }3 M/ J! N
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周五，美联储暗示或出手，美股反弹收涨，但美债美元的跌势，警示着美国避险天堂的地位似乎不保了。
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Loomis, Sayles & Company的投资经理Andrea DiCenso表示："美国市场是否开始表现得像新兴市场？毫无疑问，
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' p3 m Y1 G, ~' I3 q是的，这正是我们所看到的。"# c5 Q* m/ G+ A' k- I
+ J9 K! Q6 Y; T+ q# J b7 w' |& a* l
根据数据显示，美股ETF的波动性甚至超过了追踪新兴市场的基金，也一度高于比特币。这种情况除了疫情、去 {7 l& c9 \2 K9 ]! a: X0 {" }
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年8月危机和美联储激进加息时期外，几乎从未出现。' ^2 N( `, i+ |; Z6 n( B2 s: H
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3 b3 j! x% m! S5 xRenaissance Capital的Neil Dutta在给客户的邮件中直言："标普500指数像加密货币一样交易，这可能不是好事。"2 ?$ ?0 {. n/ P1 l
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其实如果以价格行为来看的话就是提前做了超大回调，但是会不会转趋势就另外说了 |
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