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美股波动性罕见超越新兴市场和比特币，同时一向被视为安全资产的美债剧烈波动，这让投资者开始质疑持有美国资产的明智性。1 b5 M. e r$ Z% J% z& m$ m: o
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瑞银认为，一旦全球无风险利率出现波动，意味着所有市场都将被颠覆。分析师Ed Al-Hussainy更是一针见血地指出：“我其实不担心
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: j, i1 f9 J' Q4 V7 I衰退，我担心的是金融危机。”4 V" X/ B0 O, [
美股周五重回涨势，看上去市场风险偏好情绪恢复，但实际上投资者已经开始质疑美国资产的安全性，尤其是美债的剧烈波动，让金% B8 T2 a: a- U0 c+ T" T* `
) L8 M" {7 F9 _% E. u融危机的恐惧再次笼罩华尔街。
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) _: r, U* j# h& P/ @) F过去一周，美国10年期国债收益率创下20多年来最大单周跳升，美股则跳水后又暴涨。表面上看，标普500指数周涨超5%，美债收益 J& `$ s/ P3 |# p o
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率回到2月水平，比特币收盘走高，似乎一切如常。
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然而令人不安的是，本周美股、美债和美元同时下跌的现象，正是典型的新兴市场特征，而非全球最安全资产的表现。尤其本周美国" ^5 W% i1 G4 c" b7 ?: ]
! ^4 G# p( f3 [0 j( K/ T长债出现如此大的波动，流动性危机似乎就在眼前，这让投资者开始质疑持有美国资产的明智性。瑞银集团首席策略师巴努·巴韦贾更
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5 n! O% A6 `6 N( R0 _4 j是表示：5 i# x: c; k* G9 g0 e/ }1 o
3 u! a( A1 s$ n! g: k这太可怕了。我们正在重新定义全球无风险利率，如果全球无风险利率出现波动，它将颠覆所有市场。
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历史罕见，美国资产波动性超越新兴市场和比特币, c, y. M# D4 n5 u0 D8 q2 y3 _
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特朗普最近的关税政策不仅损害了对美国经济的信心，也动摇了投资者对美国政策方向和美元资产的信任。即使以华尔街漫长的历史
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标准来看，本周都是一个惨烈的交易周，美股像是坐上了过山车，美债美元的走势更是暗示美国避险地位似乎不保了：/ q+ D. v" u B
4 d& Q* P2 }# V3 L/ @: s, f `% a周一，因所谓的乌龙关税消息，美股上演15分钟脉冲式巨震，纳指一度低位暴拉10%，美债跳水。) a5 ~9 b# i( x- L, f% c, Y% ]
/ q; ~3 u+ @; A3 ~: K) [2 n周二，不会关税豁免的消息粉碎美股反弹希望，道指盘中高位狂泻超2000点，标普抹平超4%涨幅转跌，美国国债市场则出现去杠杆式大跌。
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周三，美国暂缓部分关税，三大美股指至少收涨近8%，标普创2008年来最大涨幅，美股交易量创下300亿股的历史新高。十年期美债( g* w! \7 l. S& O( j
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收益率冲高回落。, o! S( F. ]0 n% K
/ v4 ?$ D+ e2 R. }5 X周四，全球投资者逃离美国资产，美国股债汇三杀，纳指跌超4%，美元两年来最大日跌，黄金新高。
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1 |8 D- m, W* C" }( Q3 w' U周五，美联储暗示或出手，美股反弹收涨，但美债美元的跌势，警示着美国避险天堂的地位似乎不保了。! f( t" ^# |8 I/ p6 H% u& H
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Loomis, Sayles & Company的投资经理Andrea DiCenso表示："美国市场是否开始表现得像新兴市场？毫无疑问，/ c, V Q1 z2 y
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是的，这正是我们所看到的。"
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根据数据显示，美股ETF的波动性甚至超过了追踪新兴市场的基金，也一度高于比特币。这种情况除了疫情、去
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年8月危机和美联储激进加息时期外，几乎从未出现。
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( }, R' X. [" m! Q+ sRenaissance Capital的Neil Dutta在给客户的邮件中直言："标普500指数像加密货币一样交易，这可能不是好事。"/ q3 y" }9 S/ R$ Q
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其实如果以价格行为来看的话就是提前做了超大回调，但是会不会转趋势就另外说了 |
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